An Hour on the Russians

Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg, Senior Analyst, CNA Strategic Studies, an Associate at Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, and author and host of the Russian Military Reform blog is going to be the guest on Midrats this week.

Just giving folks a heads up. That is sure to be a good hour.

Lets Talk About Requirements With Clarity Sir...

At the USNI Joint Warfighter 2012 Conference this week, I wanted to talk about shipbuilding. The plan came together on the last day of the conference when I used the panel moderated by Peter Swartz's on acquisition as the setting. You can read about it at USNI.

Keyhole

As we continue the movie theme this week, ironically the same week the movie Battleship hits theaters, I encourage folks to check out this presentation by Michael Jones, Chief Technology Advocate at Google Ventures. Now full disclosure, this is how Google rolls and I have seen a version of this speech several times, each time tailored to the audience. Basically Google guys like Mr. Jones walks in and scares the crap out of people.

If you are interested in the power of information, you are going to love this.

Discussion and Debate on Strategy in Asia

Here is the video from today's Center for National Policy discussion between T.X. Hammes and me on strategy in Asia.  



Bryan McGrath

Cartwright Unleashed

It starts slow, but about 5 minutes in you'll realize why you want to watch this until the end. And I'm serious, this ends in a way you want to see.

Perception problem in the South China Sea Dispute

The dispute between China and Philippines has gotten quite ugly in the past couple of months. It's quite a bad development for China when one considers how good the relationship was just 3 years ago. Internationally, China has been seen as the bully in this case pushing a smaller nation. I read this article on Times that put some good perspectives on this. If you want to know how Chinese leaders think, reading the quotes by Yang Yi is probably the most helpful.

“Eighty percent of the population wants us to use the military,” says Yang Yi, former director of the Institute for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University in Beijing. “They’re asking, ‘Why are we so weak? Why are we wasting money on our Navy if we are not going to use it?’ Outsiders really do not appreciate what is going on inside China.” Yang says there is a risk of miscalculation as China builds its military and asserts territorial claims in the region. Abroad, he says, China is seen as too assertive; but at home, it’s just the opposite.

Based on my time on Chinese forums, I can say that what Yang says here is 100% true. The question is then why do Chinese people think that Chinese leadership is weak. You have to consider 3 things here:

1. Chinese kids are taught from a very young age that the majority of South China Sea are part of China. If you have ever taken a look at maps of China issued in China, you would see what I mean.
2. A renewed self-confidence and nationalism in China in the recent years (especially since 2009)
3. In the past 150 years, Chinese leaders have been generally speaking very weak in dealing with foreign intrusions. So regardless of how legitimate Chinese claims over South China Sea is, Chinese public will connect it to weakness of past Chinese leadership.

So, the Chinese government has basically created a monster that it has trouble containing. When the Chinese public looks at this dispute in such contrasting light to other publics around China, it's hard to see how Chinese government can navigate through this without looking weak to its own population.

Cartwright Gets Candid at Joint Warfighter 2012

I sat stunned today as Hoss Cartwright, former vice-chairman of the Joint Staff, gave a remarkable speech at the Joint Warfighter Conference in Virginia Beach, Virginia. I've probably seen a dozen or so speeches from General Cartwright, and I've never seen him put on a performance anything like this.

Without a single note card, without skipping a beat or step in his comments, the General "savaged sacred cows from the Joint Strike Fighter to cybersecurity to the AirSea Battle concept" in the words of Sydney Freedman of AOL Defense. You bet - that's one way to put it.

First he hit on the topic of sequestration, then followed with recapitalization. From AOL Defense:

That means "we've got at least another increment of a couple hundred [billion]," Cartwright went on. "If you take another two hundred billion out of this budget, we're going to start to run into a problem if you don't start thinking about the strategy," he said. "You really need strategy before you spend money, and what you spend it on needs to be something you can actually afford."

On the ground, the current strategy is one shaped by a decade of optimization for operations from static bases in Afghanistan and Iraq. "We are now an occupation force," Cartwright said. "When you go to battle by getting up in the morning in your compound, getting into your armored vehicles, go out and patrol, and return to your compound at night, that is an occupation force." With all its armored vehicles, its body armor, and -- equally important -- its massive logistical tail, "it is a very heavy force, too heavy to move by air," he said. So if the Marine Corps and Army recapitalize their ground vehicle fleets without reconceptualizing them, they will lack the agility that future operations require.

And that doesn't even include what he said about the Joint Strike Fighter. Read the article.

Congress has got to find a way to get these kind of incredibly candid comments from military leaders while they are still on active duty. It is way past time for someone who is on active duty to testify ""We built the F-35 with absolutely no protection for it from a cyber standpoint," which is exactly what he said today. We are talking about a fighter aircraft that will serve as the backbone of the United States aviation for decades, and is already hampered by millions lines of software code that isn't quite right yet, and a retired VCJCS reveals the aircraft wasn't developed with cyberwarfare in mind? The Lockheed Martin guy two tables over looked very uncomfortable, and since Cartwright is a former marine aviator, his credibility on the subject is not in question.

What a stunning speech. I'll be posting a copy as soon as it is up. It will lull you to sleep in the first two minutes before he bitch-slaps you with repeated brilliance, then ends on a topic of medical innovation developed as a result of DARPA work that is an entire topic unto itself - and makes the entire concept introduced in the Matrix movies of uploading martial arts software into your brain not simply science fiction - but very possibly the very, very near future.


Cartwright also had some very interesting things to say regarding cyber. Indeed, as far as cyber goes, Cartwright is slowly becoming the most articulate person in the room on the subject. For a sample check out this video from OpenGov yesterday. In his speech today he talked about how the US is 90% defensive and 10% offensive with cyber, which he correctly IMO described as 'bass ackward.' Said another way, Cartwright takes a very Clausewitz view on cyberspace, and that attack is the first, best option. As he was discussing it I kept thinking to myself "why have the Chinese figured this out and we seem lost on the concept?"

Lots of good stuff today. More to come.

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As a side note from Day 1 at #JWC12 - there were a lot of foreign officers in uniform at the conference today, indeed the conference had a lot of people in uniform. It's a different vibe when you are at a conference with so many people in uniform, and today it seemed like the Army showed up in battalion strength. I bet the venders were happy, and I imagine the Army was pleased to overrun a Navy conference like they did today.

EU Strikes Somali Pirate Depot

Apparently the Europeans were serious when they voted to start striking targets on land. Release from EUNAVFOR.

15th May – Earlier today, following the decision taken on 23 March 2012 by the Council of the European Union to allow the EU Naval Force to take disruption action against known pirate supplies on the shore, EU forces conducted an operation to destroy pirate equipment on the Somali coastline.

The operation was conducted in accordance with the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1851 and has the full support of the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia. The focused, precise and proportionate action was conducted from the air and all forces returned safely to EU warships on completion. Whilst assessment is on-going, surveillance of the area during the action indicates that no Somalis were injured ashore as a result of EU action.

Speaking about the operation, the Operation Commander of the EU Naval Force, Rear Admiral Duncan Potts said “We believe this action by the EU Naval Force will further increase the pressure on, and disrupt pirates’ efforts to get out to sea to attack merchant shipping and dhows. The local Somali people and fishermen – many of whom have suffered so much because of piracy in the region, can be reassured that our focus was on known pirate supplies and will remain so in the future.”

At no point did EU Naval Force ‘boots’ go ashore. Rear Admiral Potts went on to say “The EU Naval Force action against pirate supplies on the shoreline is merely an extension of the disruption actions carried out against pirate ships at sea, and Operation Atalanta remains committed to fighting piracy off the Horn of Africa and the humanitarian mission of protecting World Food Programme ships that bring vital aid to the Somali people.”

Operation Atalanta is part of the EU’s comprehensive approach to tackling symptoms and root causes of piracy in the Horn of Africa and the EU strategic framework for that region adopted in November 2011. Currently there are 9 warships in the EU Naval Force and 5 Maritime Patrol Aircraft.

The reach of Somali pirates is vast; they have attacked merchant ships up to 1,750 miles off the Somali coast. Preventing them getting out to sea is a crucial step in removing their impunity ashore and to further the success of counter-piracy operations.

First, this is the French and the Danes, both of whom have had enough of piracy. The Danes have been particularly effective in their anti-piracy tactics for a long time. The attack was likely launched from the French Mistral class vessel in the area. I am hearing the shooters were British, and concentrated on taking out the outboard motors of pirate boats. We have discussed this in the past on the blog - indeed taking out outboard motors on pirate boats has been something US Navy officers who have patrolled off Somalia have mentioned several times in several venues as being one way to quickly hurt pirate operations. Why hasn't the US Navy done this before? Someone should ask the State Department...

A target in Somalia with no people was probably low hanging fruit. Its hard to believe an airstrike against a depot so important no one was there is going to be an effective deterrent against piracy.

I don't mean to sound cold, but I do think the EU is going to have to actually kill pirates if their little land attack strategy is going to be an effective deterrent. Based on the way this press release is worded, I'm not sure that's the plan.

Updated: Turns out it was a Spanish SH-60B from the frigate Reina Sofía (F-84) with other EU forces supporting. What a good sign to see the Spanish engaged like this, and with success it is more likely we will see more of this kind of activity.

Insurance Company Funded Private Navy Preparing for Pirate Wars

Private Navy's to fight pirates are coming, and we are starting to see more details.

A private navy costing US$70 million (Dh257m) is being set up to escort merchant ships through the pirate-infested Gulf of Aden.

It will comprise a fleet of 18 ships, based in Djibouti, and will offer to convoy merchant vessels along the Internationally Recognised Transit Corridor (IRTC).

This is the world's most dangerous shipping lane, between the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. The fleet will be operated by the Convoy Escort Programme (CEP), a British company launched by the international shipping insurers Jardine Lloyd Thompson (JLT) and the Lloyds of London underwriters Ascot.

Full funding will be in place by the end of next month, and the CEP hopes the fleet will be operational by December.

"The shipping industry needs to stand up and be counted," said Angus Campbell, the CEP's chief executive and a former director of Overseas Shipholding Group, the world's second-biggest listed oil tanker company. "The time is now, not in four or five years' time."

Piracy in the region is costing the global economy an estimated US$7 billion a year. For the ship owners alone, every vessel sailing through the waters off Somalia is charged additional insurance premiums of between $50,000 and $80,000.

Ships opting to carry their own armed guards can be charged an additional $18,000 and $60,000 per voyage by security companies.

Although the European Union is spending more than €8m (Dh37.94m) a year to maintain a naval force in the waters - EU NavFor - its warships still cannot provide close support to all merchant vessels.

The CEP, however, offers substantial savings to owners as well as protection from pirate attack. The CEP will buy insurance and use that to cover the ships in its convoys, so owners will no longer need to pay premiums, or hire security.

Instead, they will just pay a flat $30,000 to $40,000 per ship in the convoy.

Read the rest here.

Note the ships of this private Navy will be conducting their mission Internationally Recognized Transit Corridor (IRTC). The thing is, very few pirate attacks and maybe as few as 2 total hijackings have taken place in the corridor over the past few years, so in some ways this is smoke and mirrors from the insurance industry, and a way for them to sustain the money grab but protect product at the same time.

This sets an interesting precedent in the 21st century. It is past time to start thinking about what the role of private Navy's will be during the next war at sea - because as this demonstrates, the need for private Navy's will always exist and during war time it's a safe bet they absolutely will exist.

AQAP’s Fight From the Sea

This week’s most excellent news from the Arabian Peninsula was that long time fugitive COLE bombing planner Fahd al-Quso was exploded. But a little noticed related story was Al Qaeda’s retaliatory attack in the vicinity of Zinjibar, which killed 30+ Yemeni troops. What is most interesting about this attack is that a portion of AQAP’s fighters reportedly infiltrated via fishing boats, demonstrating a very nascent amphibious warfare capability. The importance of Zinjibar and Yemen’s Southern coast to AQ's strategy has been discussed by this author before.

In the terrorists’ own words: “Attention is drawn to the fact that for the first time the Mujahideen attacked the puppets both by land and sea. This fact testifies to the rapidly growing potential of the armed forces of AQAP.” Since the attack on COLE, Islamic militants in Yemen have occasionally promoted their “fleet” and threatened friendly shipping. So why haven’t we seen more evidence of their maritime capability? One, as special operations folks like to say, "don't confuse enthusiasm with capability."  Al Qaeda's appreciation and desire for naval power is real, but building a viable maritime capability much beyond smuggling networks and an occasional lucky attack is  challenging.  Second, since COLE, allied navies and commercial shipping have increased their awareness and hardened themselves against these sorts of attacks (we also have unchecked piracy to thank for that). Finally, these plots have likely been quietly disrupted by various counter-terrorism actions.  Nevertheless, much like AQAP’s ongoing laser-like focus on attacking Western aviation was inspired by successful 911 aviation attacks, aspirations for a useful maritime capability bolstered by the success against COLE are unlikely to wane, so ongoing attention is warranted.

And in a tangentially-connected story, four Somalis were arrested on Yemen’s Socotra Island learning how to scuba dive. Were they these guys just enjoying a sabbatical from buccaneering or do they represent another example of the al Shabaab fighters who have increasingly adjusted their sights toward jihad in Yemen as their own prospects falter in Somalia?  As AQAP still controls terrority in Southern Yemen, it has become the new magnet and safe haven for foreign fighters.  Until we get serious about destroying these safe havens faster than they can regenerate, the movement will persist and the war against al Qaeda will not be won.

The opinions and views expressed in this post are those of the author alone and are presented in his personal capacity. They do not necessarily represent the views of U.S. Department of Defense, the US Navy, or any other agency.