A Strange Solution For India's Russia Problem

In 2004 Russia offered a sweetheart deal to India, Russia would give India the Admiral Gorshkov for free. The catch was, India would have to pay for modernization costs and buy Russian aircraft, specifically Mig-29K fighter aircraft, for a total price of around $1.5 billion dollars, which breaks down to $800 million for the carrier refit and $700 million for the fighters.

This past October, an article popped up in a Russian newspaper, later reprinted here, that has set off a storm of media attention in India. The story leaked information that many had already suspected, specifically that Russia had pulled workers off the Admiral Gorshkov to work on the new Russian SSBN submarines because the shipyard could no longer afford the contract terms to modernize the Admiral Gorshkov. This transfer of workforce has delayed the Carrier program, and Russia is demanding $1.2 billion additional dollars. As we stand today, there is no resolution to the issue.

There is quite a bit of speculation that Russia spent some of the money paid for the Admiral Gorshkov refit for Russian Navy construction efforts, with both Janes and Stratfor now including this accusation in their reporting. That is noteworthy because Russia currently has 3 ongoing Naval contracts with the Indian Navy, with the Admiral Gorshkov refit actually being the least expensive. India has and is paying considerably more for the total contract to refit their Kilo class submarines, and there is a contract worth over a billion dollars with Yantar shipyard in Kaliningrad for three more destroyers.

We don't know if those accusations are true or not, but we do note there are some large defense contracts right now between Russia and India. The Kilo refit has been largely successful and is approaching the end, while two of the three destroyers being built at Yantar are under construction. When you factor in other contracts between Russia and India, specifically the Akula class submarine lease, the soon to be completed contract for over 300 T-90S main battle tanks, and the new design cooperation for a new "5th generation fighter" it is plain to see that India is tied to Russia for defense, and is in a weak negotiating position over the Admiral Gorshkov.

It is under the conditions of Russian intimidation and a weak negotiating position that this article springs to life. This is getting a lot of attention in India.

Recent efforts by officers who seek to forge a comprehensive military relationship with India to offer the USS Kitty Hawk carrier to the Indian Navy -- as the USS Trenton was a few years ago -- seem to have foundered on opposition from pro-Pakistan and NATO-centric elements in the U.S. military. They see the move as potentially alienating the Pakistan military.

Such a transfer would link the United States and India in a military supply relationship that could lead to the displacement of Russia as the primary supplier to India of defense equipment. Yet both the NATO and Pakistan lobbies within the U.S. military are working overtime to scuttle the plan to offer the USS Kitty Hawk to the Indians.

Within India too there has been resistance to the induction of the USS Kitty Hawk. It comes from the segment within the Indian Navy that is in favor of Russian or French platforms, both being lucrative sources of patronage. Their efforts at downplaying the force multiplier effect of the U.S. carrier focus on its "obsolete" catapult technology and the expenses involved in a refit.

That their primary interest is to prevent a reversal of the Indian decision to induct the Russian carrier Gorshkov (now estimated to cost US$1.6 billion in place of the $500 million quoted earlier) is clear from the primary argument used against the U.S. naval vessel, which is the age of the four-decade-old ship. However, unlike the Gorshkov, which is unable to sail at all, the U.S. vessel is operational, and was recently in the news for its attempt to dock in Hong Kong over the Thanksgiving weekend.

So much attention in fact that Admiral Sureesh Mehta was asked about it during his recent press conference on the eve of Navy Day.

The outburst of the Indian Navy chief, Admiral Sureesh Mehta, against the Russians over the delay and cost escalation of aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov has led to speculation that India can look forward to inducting the USS Kitty Hawk, the American super-carrier that led the war games in the Bay of Bengal this September.

“Look, I am not buying it (the US carrier),” Mehta said indignantly in a bid to scotch the speculation.

“It’s too old,” Mehta added.

But there is reason to believe that the Indian establishment may not completely overrule a second look at the Kitty Hawk. The Pentagon is understood to have made discreet suggestions.

The Kitty Hawk will be 47 years old by the time it retires. When I first heard this I dismissed is without really researching it. The rumors have been around a few months, have been discussed in a few places, but I dismissed it as wild speculation. However, there may be something to this after all.

The Bush administration is facing hostile domestic resistance to the nuclear power deal brokered with India last year. This puts Bush up against a wall, and if the deal fails it could adversely effect developing relations between the US and India at a time when the US is very interested to get involved in India's defense industry. That implies there is some political haggling going on, which means anything is possible.

If India and Russia are unable to come to terms over the Admiral Gorshkov, the theory is the US will move in with a proposal. The US will offer India a similar deal that Russia offered. Specifically, the US will 'give' India the Kitty Hawk and India pays for the refit, which could cost about as much as Russia is asking to refit the Admiral Gorshkov. Furthermore, the deal would be the cherry on top of the The Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft program, the 10+ billion dollar program India is competing, of which the Super Hornet and F-16 are among the competitors. DID has more details that open up the option.

The belief expressed by Jane's Defense in February 2006 that India would increase its initial requirement from 126 multirole combat aircraft (MRCA) to around 180-190 aircraft, with the additional number being considered for acquisition by the Indian Navy, would have been an even bigger change. Reports to other outlets varied, however, and some had India standing firm at 126 aircraft. The MoD release only mentioned 126 aircraft, but other reports add an option for another 64 aircraft on the same terms; if true, this would bring the potential deal up to 190 aircraft.

DID has not seen the RFP, but any naval compatibility requirements would be extremely significant because the current roster of competitors contains only 2 aircraft that qualify... Those aircraft are the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet and Dassault's Rafale-M variant.

Recall, however, India's need to replace large numbers of aircraft. Given that both the Rafale and Super Hornet carry flyaway costs in the $55-70 million per plane range, and total program costs significantly higher than that, a naval requirement within the competition almost certainly means a split of the order between these high-expense platforms and a cheaper lightweight fighter contender. A possibility which may come to pass regardless of the Navy's involvement, for example as a smaller F/A-18 E/F order and a large MiG-35 order in order.

Given some of the other recent news on Indian Naval aviation, the Navy requirement looks more likely. Of the 31 Sea Harriers that India purchased 20 years ago, only 15 remain. While I'm not sold the Kitty Hawk is actually being offered to India, or that India would actually buy the Kitty Hawk, it will be very interesting to observe what happens between India and Russia regarding the Admiral Gorshkov, and whether in fact the Kitty Hawk becomes the final solution, even if it is nothing more than political leverage.