Monday, August 11, 2008

Obseving the Russian Offensive

Reuters is reporting on the offensive inside of Georgia.

Russian troops have entered Georgia's Black Sea port of Poti, an oil and cargo shipping centre, Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze said on Monday.

"According to our information, Russian troops have entered Poti, as well as being in Senaki and Zugdidi," he said in a televised address, referring to two other towns in western Georgia.
I have circled these cities on the map using the rather crude mspaint, so forgive my sloppy display. I have also put up the map without markings for comparisons. Note the railroads and the roads. Russian ground strategy appears to be very well coordinated.

Click images for Hi-Resolution

As we have been surfing the Russian blogs, diaries, and news sources, some things have been popping up that have caught our attention.

- The Georgian Army has been disabled in terms of its communications. The military communication systems have been compromised. This has created a lot of confusion among the troops, often described as chaos. The Georgian Army is not trained to operate under conditions of communications disruption.

- Russia is keeping the International Red Cross and other such agencies from working within the territories their troops are operating in, including South Ossetia. There may be a number of reasons ranging from assuming ownership of the medical care of citizens for national reasons, but also to conceal casualty numbers both civilian and military.

- There is some complaining on the Russian side regarding Israel. While virtually all media blames the Ukraine for every weapon system that kills a Russian soldier or any civilian, there is some sort of anti-vehicle weapon that locals are suggesting is Israeli in origin, and it is apparently lethal. We searched arms databases for exports and couldn't come up with anything, it may not be Israeli. There is a rumor circulating that some 50 armored vehicles and tanks have been destroyed by this weapon. The Russian UN ambassador was reportedly asked about it in the press conference today. I have not seen a transcript, but he reportedly did not answer the question.

- Russian military casualties appear to be high, and we note the number is being concealed intentionally. We are reminded of Afghanistan here. Georgian military casualties are very high, but they are spinning the numbers for political purposes. It will be up to international organizations to reveal the real numbers.

- There are a number of rumors circulating. POWs on both sides being executed is a popular rumor. There is a remarkable lack of reporting regarding POWs. There is a rumor in western Georgia that troops from Abkhazia have threatened to kill all Georgians wearing a uniform who don't surrender.

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Will update links as we find them this evening.

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