Nobody Knows...

Phil Ewing is writing about the biggest mission the Navy has been assigned in decades, and in asking questions is finding there are few answers.

Which ships will take the patrol mission? What will the deployments look like — will ships participate in exercises, make port visits or be confined to a narrow patrol box? How long will ships be assigned picket duty? Will BMD patrol ships sail with the crews they would have taken on normal deployments, or will they have fewer sailors to account for the narrower mission?

Navy officials had few answers in the week after Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced the new BMD mission. Spokesmen at the Pentagon and for 3rd Fleet, which is responsible for Navy Air and Missile Defense Command, said officials were working out the details.

More questions.

There were broader questions beyond crewing and deployments: For the first time, the commanding officer of a surface warship will have strategic responsibilities — the ship could be the only thing standing between a nuclear attacker and its victim. What discretion will commanders have in responding to attacks?

“You’ve put these commanders on a par with [ballistic-missile submarine] commanders,” said Steven Cimbala, an expert on ballistic-missile issues.

“But unlike an SSBN commander, who is unlikely to be under immediate tactical threat, an Aegis cruiser or a [destroyer] could very easily be attacked by surface or subsurface craft, or aircraft, as part of a first strike,” Cimbala said.

A lot of questions, and no one seems to know the answers. This is going to take a lot of time for the Navy to work out the details.

Crew swaps were mentioned, even removing the tail is mentioned as a way to cut crew... this sounds like a lot of early speculation. Still, it goes to the heart of the issue, the Navy conclusion in the Pacific called for 16 AEGIS BMD ships.

It is possible the same number will be necessary for the Atlantic theater. 16 ships allows for a rotation of around 4 ships at a time, which in truth is actually only 2 flanks protected from ballistic missiles since it takes a minimum of 2 ships to perform the mission.