One Step From War

Right after South Korean President Lee Myung-bak took responsibility for failing to protect the country following the North Korean attack, he went on to answer the big question discussed in the comments on the blog over the last few days.

"In the past, North Korea has provoked us on many occasions, but this is the first time they have made a direct attack on South Korean soil," said Lee, making his first public remarks since the crisis began last week with the attack on civilian-inhabited Yeonpyeong island. "Launching a military attack on civilians is a crime against humanity, even during wartime."

Speaking at the Blue House, the presidential palace in Seoul, Lee outlined a series of past provocations from the North stretching back two decades, including the attempted assassination of the South Korean president in Rangoon in 1983, the bombing of a South Korean airliner in 1987, and the sinking of a South Korean warship, the Cheonan, in March.

"Despite all of these provocations," Lee said, "we tolerated them in the belief that one day North Korea will change, and because of our hope for peace on the Korean Peninsula." He said South Korea has continued to engage in talks with Pyongyang and has given humanitarian assistance to the economically troubled country, but North Korea continued its pursuit of nuclear weapons and continued its attacks.

Now, Lee said, "South Koreans realize that tolerance and generosity bring more provocation." He said that South Korea would strengthen its military capability and would "make North Korea pay the due price by all means for its provocation from now on."

Folks have been asking how long South Korea and the US will take hits from North Korea without a significant military response. If this message suggests anything, it suggests that the last straws have been broken. The US has always been on South Korean time, and it appears the clock is set only a minute until midnight. South Korea is making clear that they respond to any future attack by North Korea with a substantial military response - and I would expect that attack to be disproportionately aggressive.

Given how unpredictable North Korea can be, that should raise the North Korea issue to the top concern of US, China, Russia, and Japan. It is worth noting that North Korea has not responded to China's calls to renew the 6 party talks, and equally noteworthy - China's criticism of the USS George Washington (CVN 73) in the Yellow Sea has been relatively quiet and measured; or perhaps more accurately described as nuanced.

The amount of influence China has over North Korea does appear to be in question right now, not just from the US and our partners, but more noteworthy - in the editorial pages in China as well.