The LCS Drama Continues

NavyTimes has an article that describes the damage of a fire that erupted onboard LCS-1 back in April. According to the Navy investigation, the cause was accidental. This is understandable, shipyards are fire hazards, and it appears the damage estimate is only 3.5 million, although it is a contributing factor to the delayed construction of LCS-1 which is now due to join the Fleet in 2008. Who will pay the cost is yet to be determined. The cost question of the LCS is included in the NavyTimes article:

As of June 21, the Navy has yet to determine total construction costs for either the Lockheed or General Dynamics ships and continues to characterize the cost growth as “between 50 percent and 75 percent depending on the basis of comparison,” although unofficial estimates are higher for both designs.

That is interesting, because 50% increase of the original 470 million for LCS-1 would be 705 million, while 75% would be 822 million for the first ship. DID is claiming, based on what has been reported, the best case cost estimate for a single LCS is around 427 million.

Now comes another announcement reported by NavyTimes, LCS-5 is now being estimated to cost 460 million. This is a fairly high number, well above the DID estimate of 427 million per. If you look at the DID cost increases, it is broken down by estimating a sea frame cost of 297 million + 50 million to each hull for NVR changes + 80 million for a single mission module for 427 million, which doesn't include the 25 million for a MH-60S/R. If I am reading the NavyTimes report correctly, the Navy is now including a single mission module in the its 460 million cost estimate for LCS-5, It is unclear from the article if the cost includes a single helicopter, but odds are good it does not.

This might be good news, or not... If the estimate is being made for LCS-5 is accounting for building only a single ship, it is possible the Navy can get down to the originally estimated 400 million per hull + module if building 6 per year. Possible, not likely. More likely the cost of the LCS would only drop about 10% per hull if building 6, meaning each LCS + a single mission module will be around 425 million per. While it certainly hurts the LCS program and the Navy to fail to get multiple mission modules per hull, at least there is a light at the end of the tunnel suggesting the Navy will be able to afford more than a handful of LCS.

That is of coarse assuming the Navy doesn't get its act together and realize the LCS may not be the best platform for the mission it is designed to conduct. I won't hold my breathe, but the LCS program won't be shaken out until the next presidential administration in FY2010, meaning it is possible a new administration will help the Navy see the light, and force the Navy to go in a new direction more suitable to the proposed mission profiles.