5th Fleet Focus: "Hell" In the Gulf

We can expect a lot of rhetoric from Iran over the next few weeks. The tension between Iran and US is building, and with last weeks intentional media leak regarding the label of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as terrorists, we should expect the IRGC to act the part.

Iraqi Kurdish officials expressed deepening concern yesterday at an upsurge in fierce clashes between Kurdish guerrillas and Iranian forces in the remote border area of north-east Iraq, where Tehran has recently deployed thousands of Revolutionary Guards.

Jabar Yawar, a deputy minister in the Kurdistan regional government, said four days of intermittent shelling by Iranian forces had hit mountain villages high up on the Iraqi side of the border, wounding two women, destroying livestock and property, and displacing about 1,000 people from their homes. Mr Yawer said there had also been intense fighting on the Iraqi border between Iranian forces and guerrillas of the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), an armed Iranian Kurdish group that is stepping up its campaign for Kurdish rights against the theocratic regime in Tehran.

Sounds bad, but it really isn't what it appears. The US already labels the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) a terrorist organization, so the US gets to sit and watch. The US has allowed Turkey to do some dirty work against the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) recently, and is unlikely to pick sides in a fight between the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK) and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

That doesn't mean the US won't continue to watch the IRGC though, or continue to point out to the IRGC as a major problem in Iraq. It is all part of the script, and I predict the script will continue until General Petraeus has his day for the world on September 15th.

Until that day though, the rhetoric is going to hit a fever pitch, and the US Navy needs to be ready just in case the IRGC doesn't decide to play the game the way the US expects. The IRGC is not some small military special force, they have a large small boat navy (1500+ various armed boats), they control the ballistic missile inventory for Iran, they are the Iranian nuclear program, and have access to a number of options in naval combat that can make the Gulf very dangerous indeed.

It was the latest in a series of defiant statements from senior Guards figures after U.S. officials on Wednesday said the United States may soon name the force a terrorist group, a move that would enable Washington to target its finances.

"With the power the Guards have obtained now, if the enemies want to ... start a military confrontation, the Persian Gulf will become a hell for them," Ali Razmjoo, a naval commander of the Revolutionary Guards, told the Fars News Agency.

"By using modern systems, no activities and threats by the enemies in the Persian Gulf would be hidden from us," he said.

I refuse to underestimate Iran, but I have no intention to over estimate their capabilities either. Iran has the capability to create major problems in the Gulf, but to the extent they would try shutting down the Gulf, I remain highly skeptical. Eyes will be shifting to Basra this week, and if things don't go well it might get really ugly near ABOT and KAAOT, which will put maritime forces off Iraq in the middle of a dangerous situation. As tensions increase, it will be interesting to watch for major strikes by the IRGC, which may or may not occur inside Iraq. While it is assumed activity conducted by the IRGC can only work against the US, in Iraq I have noticed a trend proven by virtually everyone that assumptions and overconfidence leads to major mistakes and miscalculations. We have seen it by the US, by the UK, by the Iraqis themselves, by Al Qaeda, and it is very possible we could see it in the near future from Iran.

This blog maintains the position advocated by Stratfor on the Iranian crisis, that things will appear to be approaching a state of crisis before a peaceful settlement is possible. The rhetoric on both sides will increase substantially as that moment of crisis approaches in the near future. Hang on, its going to be a bumpy ride over the next few weeks.