6th Fleet Focus: Sparks in the Black Sea

Georgia is accusing Russia of violating its airspace again. According to Georgia, its radar recently tracked a Russian aircraft penetrating Georgian airspace near Abkhazia -- a pro-Russian breakaway region and an area of substantial Georgian-Russian tension.

The first incursion allegedly took place August 6th involving a KH-58 missile fired at a Georgian village, Georgia has claimed it was targeting a radar station, and the radar station switched off to avoid being tracked by the missile. That incursion occurred near the Georgian breakaway region, South Ossetia. Two international groups (both European) claim to have seen the missile and identified it as the KH-58, discrediting claims that it is a hoax by Georgia, which does not have the KH-58 in its arsenal nor the capability to deliver the weapon.

The Second incident came on August 21st, when Georgia claimed that Russia was penetrating Georgian airspace near Abkhazia, a pro-Russian region with a lot of substantial Georgian-Russian tension. There was no apparent response from the west to that incident, and Russia claimed Georgia is making it up.

But now a third incident appears to have taken place on August 23rd, and this time Georgia claims to have shot back and perhaps even shoot down a Russian warplane. A fire has been reported in a remote region and Georgia intends to send out a recovery team to find debris to prove the claim. Russia for its part is in full denial of everything, claiming all its aircraft are accounted for.

This raises a number of potential questions.

First, Georgia has no reason to lie and almost nothing to gain from an escalation against Russia, which strengthens their claims in my opinion. Georgia is doing everything it possibly can to be friendly to the west, starting with strategic ties to NATO but also contributing military US forces in Iraq. Georgia is probably well aware that even if Russia is conducting military operations in Georgia, there is little chance the US or Europe would do anything but yell really loud about it.

Russia however wouldn't be conducting military operations in Georgia unless they had a plan. Russia sees Georgia as the least in line with Russian policy of the breakaway states, the only state it can't directly control, the most important (being a border state) breakaway state that rejects Russia and embraces the west, but due to corruption and other internal problems Russia can be very effective leaning on Georgia. However, leaning on Georgia alone doesn't solve the border issue for Russia. Russia has claimed, with good reason, that arms were reaching the Chechen guerrillas via Georgia through the Pankisi Gorge, with the claims ranging from Georgia doing nothing to stop the arms flow to Georgia being responsible for the arms flow.

I see this effort as a way to force Georgia to think about their strategic interests, and force them to get back in line with the rest of their neighbors in line with Russia's strategic interests. Georgia's good relations with the US doesn't mean as much as it did when Russia was weaker and the US wasn't engaged in Iraq, and Europe is almost certainly a dead end for Georgia.

The US for its part is going to face a tough decision, or at least should consider the situation. In Georgia the US has a true friend, in every meaning of the word with actions including military contributions in Iraq and Afghanistan. The strategic location in the Black Sea isn't trivial, and as a radar location it is directly in line to detect any ballistic missile launch from the Middle East to Europe and the US.

The US Navy currently has several assets in the region as of Friday, including the USS Forrest Sherman (DDG 98) and the Kearsarge Expeditionary Strike Group gathering in the eastern Med. While it is unlikely the US would get involved, and these sparks are unlikely to start a fire, it is certainly an interesting situation worth keeping an eye on.