
In preparation for Sea Breeze 2006 the US chartered merchant ship Advantage pulled into Feodosiya, Ukraine to deliver Marines, Seabee's, and 500 tons of construction material to build facilities in support of the 17 nation exercise. The US entered the Ukrainian port right after a controversial election, without a required vote from parliament, inevitably becoming part of the election political problem resulting in the ship being forced out of port, its equipment and cargo impounded by Ukrainian customs, and the sailors and Marines forced to fly home.
When it comes to diplomacy with the nations on the Black Sea, the Navy is usually in the middle of it. The maritime focus on the Black Sea is likely to increase in the 21st century as the Black Sea slowly becomes a major transportation hub for energy traffic into Europe from the Middle East. Events of importance today however are political, as we have a new indirect event resulting from the Iraq War, specifically related to the US policy on the Iraqi Kurds.
The Turkish political system has entered an unprecedented phase in its evolution, where a single party has been able to form two consecutive governments on its own, control the presidency, and control the judiciary (because the president appoints key judges) at the same time. With the appointment of a new president with deep Islamic roots, the military has issued warnings that it will enforce a secular Turkey, and has intervened on four separate occasions (three of them being coups) -- in 1960, 1971, 1980, and 1997 to insure the government remains secular.
With events taking place in Turkey, Georgia, and Russia that add to the dynamics of the Black Sea, we now have speculation the US has its eyes on Bulgaria. Lately USEUCOM has been focused on the Med and Africa, and it always seemed like Ulrich couldn't keep his eyes on the ball over there. With him on the way out, it is unclear what strategy the US will develop for the Black Sea. Considering the political noise of land based ballistic missile defense in Europe, the Black Sea becomes the best place at sea to monitor ballistic missile launches from the Middle East, so expect that topic to come up at some point with all this other talk about the KEI.
One thing is clear though, when you name the places at sea that will matter in the 21st century, the list which includes the Persian Gulf, South China Sea, and the Gulf of Guinea inevitably leads to the Black Sea, so keeping an eye on emerging political events needs to become a bigger priority in the 6th Fleet, assuming as Dr. Deborah Sanders points out, the Navy avoids “routinization” of naval diplomacy, and looks to understand the region.
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