It Would Be Impressive, If It Wasn't So Depressing

If there was a manual on how to become a dictator, Hugo Chavez would be the textbook example. He has utilized the democratic process flawlessly, only to buy off the military with new toys, consolidate power through economics by placing the energy sector under the control of the executive (not the people like some try to counter), and has crushed dissenting views in the media to establish enough power to now change the constitution so he can remain in power indefinitely.

However, there appears to be dissent. While I don't believe the dissent has a chance in hell of stopping Chavez, it has led me to wonder if there is the possibility of major trouble in Venezuela down the road. I'm not talking about US - Venezuela relations, rather I'm talking about the kind of backlash that can occur when a dictator rises to power. Specifically, since Venezuela is the 3rd largest supplier of crude to the US, I'm wondering whether these events could lead to internal problems in Venezuela that could disrupt energy supply.

While I haven't seen anyone really discuss that point, I have seen a number of articles similar to this popping up lately. Asdrúbal Aguiar, a Venezuelan citizen who works as a professor at Buenos Aires University, stood up against taking part in a potential referendum on the changes to the Constitution. He has an interesting Q&A in this article, which includes:

he (Chavez) substantiated his judgment by saying that democracy cannot be negotiated. Therefore, election as a legitimate means is not consistent with an illegitimate end -consolidation of a dictatorship. "I learned at the Inter-American Court (of Human Rights) that nobody can be tortured to confess his crimes. (President Hugo) Chávez' Marxist ethics -the end justifies the means- runs counter to democratic ethics. Therefore, we can hardly choose an autocrat by democratic means."

...
Q: In other words, there is a conflict here.

A: Absolutely. I am positive that we are before a project with no destiny; that can come true only by making a real, actual use of the armed forces. For this reason, Chávez insists on the concept of a peaceful, yet armed revolution.

The whole Q&A is interesting, because it comes from inside Venezuela as opposed to from the outside looking in. You know, considering the US attention, or clear lack of, in South America over the last several years it is silly for anyone to be surprised by the outcomes of political events in the neighbors to our south. Watching the Chavez conversion of a healthy democracy to a dictatorship would be very impressive, if it wasn't so depressing.