Success of Global Fleet Station Pilot Will Be Decided This Week

Prior to the deployment of the Global Fleet Station to the Caribbean, I engaged is a discussion over at the World Affairs Boards regarding what would determine a successful GFS deployment. My argument was basically, the HSV Swift platform itself might be ideal for specific mission profiles, particularly training and insuring it carries the provisions necessary to address specific tools that will enhance local forces, but my argument was that ultimately the unplanned events that unfolded during the Global Fleet Station deployment will decide the success or failure of the mission, and the HSV Swift platform alone won't be enough in a major emergency. That alone argues that the GFS concept deployed away from the US might need to be larger than one ship, because while the primary mission might be about the little things, the secondary mission of the big things will ultimately decide its success.

My argument is based on a maritime theory I believe in regarding the role of the US Navy moving into the 21st century, that "Mission-tailored, distributed forces" able to provide presence over a large area while being organic enough to combine to meet large challenges as they develop will be a critical capability of the United States, particularly as a peacetime deterrent to war, of which humanitarian response is a key enabler.

Today, an enormous challenge is developing in the Caribbean Global Fleet Station Area of Responsibility, and if the Global Fleet Station is unable to grow large enough, fast enough, it will fall well short of its requirement to provide the tailored services the mission will require.

Authorities began evacuating residents of the Mexican Caribbean on Saturday and tourists in Cancun cleared supermarkets shelves as the luxury resort braced for its second ferocious hurricane in two years.

Hurricane Dean, which is on the verge of becoming a rare Category 5 storm, was expected to strike the Yucatan Peninsula late on Monday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

It has already killed at least three people in the Caribbean on its way toward Jamaica and the Gulf of Mexico.

Mexican navy and army officers evacuated 2,500 people from the small island of Holbox and helped fishing communities to shelters on higher ground. Hotel owners and state officials in Cancun were to decide when to move some 40,000 tourists later on Saturday. "We are not taking any chances with Hurricane Dean," Felix Gonzalez, governor for Cancun's Quintana Roo state, told reporters.

I have been to Cancun twice since it was hit by Hurricane Rita in 2005, when it was absolutely devastated the likes of which only residents of New Orleans would understand. That storm flat out destroyed the place, but in two years Cancun has recovered unlike any place I have ever seen, making New Orleans look like it is run by spoiled idiots.

Quintana Roo, the state in Mexico which Cancun is in, is remarkable in that when you visit you can smell money in the air. It is one of those rare places, not only in Mexico, but in the Western Hemisphere, where an entire state drives a tourism industry in ways only places like Las Vegas can compare. The tourism industry in Quintana Roo is critical to the economy of Mexico, and this storm will undoubtedly cause significant damage across the board. Even if every resort on the coast is wiped out, it will still be built back by next summer, of that I have no doubt. That also isn't the point.

The US Navy Global Fleet Station, if it really is about providing regional assistance and response to crisis, needs to already be moving in preparation for the response to Hurricane Dean. Being a first responder in humanitarian affairs is about being "Johnny on the Spot," and that doesn't mean reacting after the damage is done it means being ready before damage occurs, and on scene even if not required. The GFS concept, in all mission profiles, cannot be reactionary, it must anticipate its mission and be proactive in preparation to regional requirement, meaning if disaster response isn't already being prepared, the GFS concept has a major flaw.

When the earthquake in Peru occurred, no less than two naval bloggers (Eagle1 and Springboard) immediately called for the USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) to move out and make a difference. Looking back, SOUTHCOM responded with a joint force led by the US Air Force, despite an offshore earthquake creating a terrible natural disaster with no less than 2 major naval assets in the area, the USNS Comfort (T-AH 20) and Task Force 40.0 being within a few days response. Springboard attempts to explain it as a shallow draft issue, and he may have a good point. Shallow draft problems tend to follow Hurricanes as well, which means HSV Swift can be useful in response to Hurricane Dean. It also means aviation may be required in Quintana Roo, and a LHD, LHA, or LPD with its aviation support capabilities can also make a huge difference in tailoring a response. Is one on its way?

HSV Swift should be wrapping up its Guatemala mission this weekend, meaning it certainly has Hurricane Dean on its radar. We will find out this week if the concept of "Mission-tailored, distributed forces" is a bunch of naval brass bull or a mission statement when it comes to Global Fleet Stations this week, because this week the success or failure of the Global Fleet Station pilot mission in the Caribbean will be decided.