Iran Always Counterstrikes

In October of 1987, Iran fired silkworm missiles from the Faw peninsula in Iraq towards the Kuwaiti oil terminals. The first two of these missiles never hit any targets and crashed into the sea, but on October 14th the American owned but Liberian flagged super tanker Sungari was hit at the north pier of the Kuwaiti terminal. The Sungari exploded and burned throughout most of the day, but was towed from the pier, and luckily enough, no one was hurt.

Because the ship was Liberian flagged, the US refused to respond to the incident, calling it a matter between Kuwait and Iran. Early the next morning, the MV Sea Isle City received instruction to report to the north pier of the terminal, the same spot as the attack on the Sungari the day before. The MV Sea Isle City was one of eleven Kuwaiti tankers that were reflagged to the US during the Tanker War of 1987-1988.

As the day before, Iran fired a silkworm which stuck the MV Sea Isle City. Because it was a US flagged ship, after using that as reason not to respond the previous day, the pressure from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait led to a US response.

That response came with operation Nimble Archer, which involved 4 destroyers and SOF in the destruction of 2 oil platforms. The oil platforms had been previously identified as IRGC bases at sea for harassing shipping in the Gulf, and Reagan was looking for a proportionate response to the attack. The SOF recovered valuable intelligence from that raid, and the ships ultimately were able to conduct the operation without causality. It was expected the Iranians might respond when 3 of the destroyers, 2 of which were Spruance class and not well armed for missile defense, exited the Gulf through the strait of Hormuz, but ultimately it didn't happen.

Operation Nimble Archer is a case study of many things, but a few points I want to highlight is that there is a valid reason why the US should not join the Law of the Sea Treaty, as this highlights potential consequences for sailors, and second Iran always responds to attacks, even if they attack first.

Iran responded to every major action in the Tanker War of 1987, including Operation Nimble Archer. The first response came on the next day, when yet another silkworm was fired from Faw, this time hitting an oil platform that had been closed for repairs. No one was hurt, and Iran denied firing the missile claiming it magically appeared in thin air. Throughout the remaining of 1987, several foreign tankers were harassed by increased small boat activity in the Gulf, but for the most part encounters between the US and Iran subsided, until the next year anyway...

Which leads me to this reported today.

Israeli aircraft carried out an airstrike inside Syria last week, possibly targeting weapons that were destined for Hezbollah militants, according to sources in the region and in the United States.

Syria reported that its aircraft fired on Israeli "enemy aircraft" that flew into northern Syria early Thursday. The Israel Defense Forces had no comment on the report, and have refused to comment further on the new revelations.

But the sources told CNN the military operation, which happened Wednesday into Thursday, may have also involved Israeli ground forces who directed the airstrike which "left a big hole in the desert" in Syria.

The strike may have targeted Hezbollah weapons coming into Syria or transiting through the country from Iran -- a pattern over the past three or four years which has occurred without any retaliation or action taken against it -- the sources said.

The Israeli government is very happy with the success of the operation, the sources said.

At least two news services out of Turkey are reporting the aircraft were F-15Is, and the incident was monitored from radars in Turkey.

Several media sources are claiming that tensions are dropping off over this incident, but I think that is a bit premature. Just because nothing happened quickly, doesn't mean something isn't in the works. If this in fact did involve Iran, there will be a counterstrike. There is only one example where Iran didn't counterattack following an embarrassing defeat (which by the way, this wasn't embarrassing until CNN reported the incident), and that was because the USS Vincennes (CG-49) shot down a commercial plane. Politically that incident turned out to be a self-inflicted wound for the United States, with international pressure creating a propaganda victory for Iran. In the mind of Iranian leadership, they always have to have the last laugh, it has always been that way.