Naval Surge Ends as Naval Buildup Begins

While the world is watching the Middle East, the Navy has quietly been rotating its warships in and out of theaters.

As of the end of August, the Navy had 4 Carrier Strike Groups (CSG) and 2 Expeditionary Strike Groups (ESG) at sea. In October, the Navy will enter the month with only 1 Carrier Strike Group (CSG) on deployment (Enterprise), 1 Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG) on deployment (Kearsarge), and the surface combatants of the Bonhomme Richard ESG back home with the Bonhomme Richard ESG amphibious ships on their way home.

When you consider the return of the Nimitz Carrier Strike Group (CSG), the Kitty Hawk Carrier Strike Group (CSG), the Bonhomme Richard Expeditionary Strike Group (ESG), and the Partnership of America's Strike Group (PoA 2007) the Navy begins October with the fewest number of warships on deployment as of any time in 2007. Also noteworthy is only three warships have officially begun their deployments over the last several weeks, all three of which (USS Reuben James (FFG 57), USS Wasp (LHD 1), and USS Bainbridge (DDG 96)) are replacing existing warships in common deployment theaters finishing their deployments. In other words, there are no additional warships deploying.

I have been predicting the Truman Carrier Strike Group would deploy by the end of September. At this point, I appear to be wrong, which I'm actually pleased to say because for the most part, Naval Strike group deployments have been remarkably predictable for the last 18 months or so of the Fleet Response Plan. Why the Truman CSG deployment hasn't been announced is still unclear, it could be next week for all I know, but current events could certainly be a major factor.

First of all, FY2008 begins on Monday, and Congress has not passed a defense budget. It really is a shame the American people watch Congress take off so many days every year, watch them give themselves a raise every year, then shrug when Congress can't do the only thing they are supposed to do every year... specifically pass a budget on time. And they want to call other nations elected officials dysfunctional? Look in the mirror. It could be the Navy is waiting for its budget before deploying its ships. Smart, but Congress should get called out on it in public if true.

Second, it could be an Admiral thing. Roughead's confirmation hearing was earlier this week (coverage here), and lately Fallon has sent signals he wants more control of deployments so he can control the message to Iran. While either or the combination of both is possible, the budget issue is more likely.

Finally, current events within the Navy could be a factor, specifically the upcoming home port change in Japan. While it is true the Navy is entering October with only a single CSG and a single ESG deployed, the US Navy appears to be moving towards 2008 to peak at the highest level of availability I have observed (perhaps ever), which is truly remarkable for a shrinking fleet.

Below are my observations. All information is public record.

On the East Coast, the USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) and USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) are both in preparations for upcoming deployments, with the Truman ready to go. The USS George Washington (CVN 73) is out of maintenance and is in its preparation for the home port move to Japan. The USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) is in dry dock with work scheduled to be completed in December. The next carrier to enter maintenance on the east coast is the USS Enterprise (CVN 65), currently deployed to the Middle East. This will give the Navy 3 CVNs on the east coast available by 2008, with a 4th operational as it changes home ports to the Pacific.

On the West Coast, the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) is currently in workups for its next deployment. The USS Nimitz, which returns from its deployment on September 30th, will remain available until its next deployment next year, while the USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) prepares to enter dry dock for a 6 month maintenance period. Currently in dry dock, due out in November is the USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76). Finally, the USS Kitty Hawk (CV 63) is unlikely to make any more major deployments before it is replaced by the USS George Washington (CVN 73) next year. By 2008, the Navy will have 3 CVNs available with the Kitty Hawk in reserve until retirement.

By my math, that means 6 CVNs, all recently modernized, in some form of preparation or deployment by 2008, and that doesn't include the rotation of the USS Kitty Hawk (CV 63) and USS George Washington (CVN 73), both of which would be available in an emergency.

I know what knowledgeable people are thinking, 6+2, we can do that today. True, but keep in mind three of those six today would be the Nimitz, Stennis, and Kitty Hawk... all of which would have returned from a deployment at some point over the the last 35 days. 6+2 is great in theory, but it isn't always a reality. I think it is noteworthy that simply because of an interesting scheduling quark of the Fleet Response Plan, started years ago before any current event (Iran is an example) was taking place, the US Navy will just happen to reach a position of peak readiness just in time for the rhetoric of war in 2008.