Sayonara Shinzo Abe

Skippy has some good analysis up, a read I highly recommend, on the resignation of Japense Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and includes an interesting maritime perspective and what this means for the future of the "yuyuukatsudo," or refueling mission the Japanese Navy has been providing in the Indian Ocean. Skippy speculates the refueling mission, set to expire on November 1st, will in fact expire without renewal.

If true this represents a huge loss for the Bush "Coalition of the Willing." As far as I am concerned, that is a good thing. The lack of a Congressional declaration of war is clearly a major contributor to the political division today over the war, clearly the primary reason there are not bipartisan efforts and ideas for victory, and with that division we are suffering broad diplomatic consequences both home and abroad. Coalitions used to be alliances inked by diplomats, but the Bush version rides political tides, and isn't very enduring.

In this case, the internal US political division supports the Democratic Party of Japan position of withdrawing support for the war, in this case the refueling mission in the Indian Ocean. That position isn't difficult for the JDP to take, after all, there is a daily call in the US to withdrawal support for the war.

Japan isn't the contributor to the "Coalition of the Willing" that a country like Britain is, but as an economic juggernaut Japanese support matters a lot. I don't think this is over yet, it is still possible Japan could continue the refueling mission, but probably not. It is going to take a bipartisan diplomatic effort in Washington if it is going to get done. With that unlikely to happen, get ready to say 'Sayonara' to the JMSDF forces in the Indian Ocean.