Clouds Forming Over 2008 Olympic Games

There has been a lot of speculation regarding the relationship of Taiwan and China and the point in time marked by the 2008 Olympic Games. It has been assumed that after the Olympics, China would start a full court press to bring about unification of Taiwan and China. Taiwan doesn't appear interested in waiting around, and the tensions in the strait are rising.

Taiwan plans to hold a referendum next year on whether to seek to join the United Nations, ignoring warnings from the United States and China. Even if it passes, however, the bid is doomed because China is a veto-wielding permanent member of the UN Security Council.

China responds.

Chinese President Hu Jintao has warned self-ruled Taiwan against formally declaring independence and vowed to woo the island back to the fold through peaceful means.

"We are willing to make every effort with utmost sincerity to achieve peaceful reunification of the two sides, and will never allow anyone to separate Taiwan from the motherland in any name or by any means," Hu said in prepared remarks to the opening of the Communist Party's 17th Congress.

Hu has said the run-up to the 2008 Beijing Olympics would be a period of "high danger" in the Taiwan Strait, seen as one of Asia's most dangerous flashpoints.

What originally caught my attention though was a stratfor article back on October 4th called China, Taiwan: Shifting Thinking, Eroding Advantage. Stratfor was the third private analysis that came to this conclusion over the last month, although slightly different, it is unclear if the various researchers are using the same sources.

A new aspect of Chinese contingency war planning for dealing with Taiwan in the event that the island declares independence is emerging from Chinese researchers and semigovernmental think tanks. These sources suggest that if Beijing feels such action against Taiwan is necessary, it will sacrifice even the 2008 Olympic Games, which are of paramount importance for the Communist Party of China. Though an outright declaration of Taiwanese independence is unlikely in the near future, there is still plenty Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian can do to get creative.

China's potential strategy centers on a punishing bombardment of Taiwan rather than a full-scale amphibious invasion. The combined tonnage of ballistic and cruise missiles, airstrikes and naval gunfire would focus specifically on the Taiwanese military's command-and-control infrastructure, with the objective of obliterating Taipei's ability to meaningfully coordinate a defense of the island. It appears China hopes to accomplish this in less than a week, and possibly as quickly as 24 hours, with the objective of forcing the direct capitulation of the government or compelling the population in general, the Kuomintang opposition in particular or the military itself to force the government into that capitulation. The ultimate goal of such a strategy would be a return to the status quo, rather than reunification.

This report indicates invasion is being reconsidered as an option for unification, substituted for a massive all out strike with ballistic missiles, air strikes, cruise missiles, and a naval strike. In coverage of the 10-10 (October 10th) military parade in Taiwan, where Taiwan revealed a pair of its cruise missiles, one of the topics discussed is the feeling that the US is backing off in support of Taiwan.

Many in Taiwan’s military have expressed feelings of abandonment by the United States, and there is an underlying sense of distrust among Taiwanese military officials of U.S. promises to defend the island against an attack from China.

One point of contention is the United States’ refusal to release the sale of 66 F-16s to replace Taiwan’s aging F-5 fighters.

The referendum is a political issue in domestic politics of Taiwan. UN membership is seen as a big vote getter, so even the Nationalist Party (NP) which supports unification is pushing for it to get votes. The United States continues its "One China" policy, which does not favor independence.

Would China attack Taiwan before the Olympics? Many people don't believe China will conduct an offensive under any condition, before or after the Olympics. The election in Taiwan is going to decide the direction of Taiwan in terms of independence, and it is going to be very interesting to watch the Bush administration who is silent on the issue.

Should the United States honor its treaties to defend Taiwan should China attack Taiwan? Could the Bush administration, that claims to be taking military action in the Middle East in the name of Democracy, watch the Democracy in Taiwan be systematically destroyed and conquered by China in the last year of its administration? This administration is arguably the most friendly administration China has ever had, even more so than Bill Clinton who was widely thought to be a big China supporter during his presidency. Considering the big, big business interests the US has in China today, can the US afford to risk war over Taiwan?

This analysis doesn't even include the economics of the problem. Either way, this is bad timing for the Bush administration, which has few cards to play here as events are now being driven by domestic politics, which can be difficult to control from the bully pulpit of the White House.