Coercive Diplomacy and the Threat to Use Force

While this might be new to some, these sales were discussed in the Senate back in August of 2006. Most people probably didn't notice, because we were watching the Israel - Lebanon war at the time. Isn't it interesting how this all of sudden becomes a priority?

The Foreign Affairs Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives has approved a bill to grant to Turkey three decommissioned U.S. military ships and to sell a fourth to the allied nation at a large discount. The panel passed the bill on a voice vote.

Under the arrangement, the U.S. should transfer to Turkey two Oliver Hazard Perry-class guided-missile frigates and an Osprey-class coastal minehunter. Another coastal minehunter was offered to Turkey at the sale price of nearly $28 million.

The two frigates, recently decommissioned by the U.S. Navy, are valued at about $125 million each, and the Osprey-class minehunters are worth about $130 million each, U.S. and Turkish military officials said.

The bill now must be approved in a House floor vote and by the Senate before being signed by President George W. Bush.

Under the same bill, the U.S. also is planning to grant two other Osprey-class minehunters to Lithuania and to sell another two to Taiwan.

We all know why this has suddenly risen to the top of the list. Everyone thank Nancy Pelosi for her incredible foresight; true leadership indeed.

All is not lost if the US House and Senate actually learn the lesson here. Apparently, as Turkey is proving once again, despite what we are often told in regard to Iran, coercive diplomacy backed by legitimate threat to use force is still the best way to avoid having to apply actual force.

We are two to three weeks away from the time we can expect the heavy drum beats from the US regarding Iran to pick up again. That drum beat is going to be emphasized as the Navy deploys a large number of ships on scheduled deployments within a few weeks time frame. If you thought Bush and Chaney have been rattling the sabers with talk of WWIII and promises of a no nuclear Iran, get ready for a thrill ride.

Bush is soon going to push Iran on their nuclear program very hard with his own coercive diplomacy backed by legitimate threat to use force. He will push past the point where western liberals begin to panic, because he needs that effect to amplify his message. The question is, when Iran believes the US is coming, will they push back or approach the table. If they approach the table realistically, Bush will talk this time. Otherwise, start expecting the unexpected.

Will Congress learn from Turkey's example? Yet to be seen, but remember, it was Turkey's elected body that voted to use force that ultimately forced our hand. In other words, I concur with Stratfor's analysis that the only peaceful solution leads to Democrats eventually empowering Bush to use force and trust he doesn't. I imagine that doesn't sit well with the far left kooks who desire peace, and may ironically prove to be the biggest roadblock in preventing war.