The Future of Underwater Warfare

As I noted the other day, there is currently only one submarine design project underway to support future submarines in the United States, and it involves reducing the cost of the Virginia class. While it is very successful, that it is the only design project currently being funded by Congress should concern citizens, and more specifically the Navy more than it appears to. Putting aside the workforce factors, which is no small thing, current events internationally point to underwater warfare playing a larger portion of the attention of the US Navy at sea.

Submarine exports are up, and not just in Asia, but also in Europe, Africa, and South America. It is noteworthy both China and Russia are spending enormous sums of money fielding not only new attack submarines, but ballistic missile submarines as well, while India is about to field its first nuclear submarines.

Innovation is up. While AIP is a favorite topic, it isn't the only area where underwater technology is improving. The US Navy has achieved the promise of modularity in its submarine force in the very near future, and there are also major advancements in new sonar systems, communication technologies, and fielding unmanned platforms from submarines. While there is no question the SSGN and Virginia class represent a great deal of innovation in submarine technology, when it comes to new ideas and future designs, Europe is moving at a faster pace.

Submarine technologies in the future appear to be heading in three directions, the large submarine, the small submarine, and the combination of both.

Future Large Submarines are currently in development Brazil, China, France, Great Britain, Russia, India, and the United States are all in some stage of designing or producing a new nuclear submarine, either attack or ballistic, and in some cases both. While it appears India and China are working off of older designs, the leaked plans to the internet of the future Russian submarines show there is still a great deal of design ingenuity left in the Russian industry. Universally, new designs are not simply power plants, electronics, and a combination of torpedo tubes as we saw at the end of the cold war, rather underwater payload delivery systems designed to move deployable cargo in the form of manned and unmanned specialized mission packages. It is noteworthy that while India is looking into a design based on the Akula II, it is also seeking smaller deployable manned midget submarine designs for special operations, as well as endurance based UUV systems that can deploy from their new Akula II style nuclear submarines.

On the other end of the spectrum, the HDW Type 210mod and Fincantieri/Rubin S1000 both represent small (between 1000-1300 tons submerged) submarines designed specifically for littoral anti-submarine warfare. Both countries are seeing a growing market. Low cost, low manning requirements, decent weapon loads, and AIP technology combine to offer nations an alternative sea control capability along coast lines in defense against enemy surface and subsurface platforms.

The most interesting future submarine design outside the United States is the SMX designs coming out of DCN. In the spirit of the BAE high/low alternative future concept submarine designs recently unveiled at DSEi 2007, DCN is working on modular capabilities alternatives to its new "three-in-one" base model. For those not familiar, the "three-in-one" SMX design includes a larger base submarine as a combat command platform with 2 smaller combat lethal operation submarines that can attach/detach from the base submarine mothership. Additionally the SMX design is focused on building interchanging modular systems that can be loaded/unloaded from the mothership organically, or transferred to the smaller operation submarines.

The question is, what is driving innovation?

There is a prevailing theory in some corners that just like the last half of the 20th century was devoted to land warfare, specifically in Europe and the Middle East, the next half century will be devoted to securing national interests by sea. While Imperials and Colonization may be dead in the west, there are always lingering issues that lead to desire for stronger military capability. While military conquest by China over Taiwan is a popular theory among those who think war drives decisions, lets assume for a minute a few alternatives that are not driven by all out war.

Should the Wall between North Korea and South Korea come down in 2009 just like the Wall came down dividing Germany in 1989, how will the Korean peninsula then look in 2029? Is there any reason not to assume it wouldn't look similar to Germany in 2009? By the same token, what then would we make of regional island dispute between Japan and a unified Korea?

What about the very near future? Next year Saudi Arabia is going to tender bids for a new submarine, and there are going to be several potential sellers from Russia, to China, to Europe, and perhaps beyond. If Saudi Arabia decides to buy 3 advanced submarines, it is likely other regional players like the UAE and Iran might decide to buy some of its own. That in turn could lead to interest by smaller players for the smaller, cheaper submarine designs being introduced.

With submarines on the market at costs of $250 million or less, and the importance of transportation at sea increasing for emerging economies, new designs are creating new challenges for traditional submarine powers in the west, particularly the United States. If a nation like Venezuela is fielding 6 or more smaller AIP submarines for the same cost we are fielding one Virginia class, the balance of power over a small body of water like the Caribbean Sea can shift quickly. The ability of the US to rapidly produce a counterweight to a regional buildup requires investment in designs today so they are mature tomorrow if needed, something Congress and the Navy don't seem too concerned with right now.

This discussion focused specifically on the manned platforms being designed, but the reality is, no Navy is yet to field on any large scale unmanned systems. We know unmanned systems will impact future warfare, or do we? If we believe unmanned underwater weapons are the future, then the question needs to be asked, where is the funding for design efforts and what is the US Navy waiting for?