Does Chávez Control the Military?

You probably caught the Drudge link to Bloomberg that Chavez is shooting his mouth off again, how he thinks oil should be leveraged as a weapon, how the declining dollar is the fall of America, and how $200 a barrel is the predicted price of oil should there ever be war.

For me, the rhetoric was typical and of no interest, even though the New Yorker ran an article praising Chavez last weekend. I read it, left it in the bathroom where it belongs, but basically the New Yorker can't find anything wrong with a guy who is trying to destroy his nations constitution, shoots student protesters, or cracks down on critical media.

Makes me wonder what he would do to the Miami Herald.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez's push to radicalize his leftist ''Bolivarian revolution'' has sparked growing unease in segments of the armed forces, only partially reflected in the recent complaints by a former defense minister, military officers and analysts say.

The observers added junior officers are undisciplined, that there is a profusion of pamphlets criticizing Chávez circulating in military garrisons and resistance by some officers to carry out presidential orders and that there are complaints of corruption among senior officers loyal to Chávez.

Chávez is largely believed to have control of Venezuela's 120,000-strong security forces as the country approaches a Dec. 2 vote on constitutional reforms that would add to his already-vast powers. He has sidelined scores of critical officers and replaced them with loyalists since a 2002 military coup briefly toppled him.

Yet the dissent within the military could spread if voters approve the reforms, according to the analysts.

The article doesn't let up, in fact it piles on and goes on and on regarding the discontent with Chavez in the military. For example, Chavez changed one of his proposals back in August deciding not to remove the national guard. Now we know why.

But while addressing an audience at guard headquarters in Caracas, Carrión met with a group of corporals and ''had the novel experience of hearing the corporals criticize him openly,'' said the colonel, who said he had first-hand knowledge of the incident. Two other Venezuelans told El Nuevo Herald that they had also heard of the incident from guard officers who were present.

'They warned him that not only would they defend the institution from a potential constitutional elimination, but they would also fight to the death `if they come to take our [heavy] guns,' '' the army colonel added.

''That situation led [Carrión] to summon a meeting of the guard's general staff, and they decided to talk to Gen. Gustavo Rangel Briceño, the minister of defense. The minister spoke to Chávez, and [the president] withdrew his intention to eliminate the guard,'' the colonel added.

On Aug. 25, Chávez announced that he was withdrawing his proposal for the national guard.

Observers have assumed that the reason Chavez was off buying heavy conventional military equipment like fighter aircraft and submarines to basically bribe the military. That might be working, but military corruption can create problems too, and sometimes you can't buy off everyone.

The article ends with an interesting quote, ''The Venezuelan soldier is not willing to die for any politician, whether it's Chávez or anyone else,'' Camacho said. ``He is willing to defend his country, the Venezuelan state, but not a government.''

It opens the question, will the military protect the constitution? If Chavez gets violent, then what? The US called on regional actors to address the crackdown in Burma, but when talking about Venezuela, the US is the regional actor.