Secretary Winter Deserves Better

Loren Thompson has an interesting rant today regarding the cancellation of the LCS-4 contract with General Dynamics. For a minute I thought I was reading an OP-Ed from Mike, because just like when I read his stuff, I read this piece agreeing and disagreeing at the same time.

Thompson lays out facts, but I had to cut them out from the whole to be accurate.

The fleet will continue shrinking in the future if the service can't find a way of buying submarines and surface combatants for less than $2 billion a pop...

At about $400 million per vessel fully loaded, the Littoral Combat Ship is the only program the Navy has in place that can keep up with the pace of retirements to stabilize fleet numbers, and it was supposed to generate about six new warships per year between 2009 and 2016...

...so the Navy's inability to finalize design specifications is beginning to look self-destructive.

Contractors aren't blameless in this controversy...

First it decides to build next-generation warships in record time at shipyards with little experience in constructing complex surface combatants. Then it tells contractors to start bending metal before shipbuilding rules have been stabilized. And when cost overruns inevitably follow, it tells companies they must sign up to contracts with fixed prices but unlimited risks.

Those are the facts regarding the LCS program, laid out, albeit in a rant that makes little sense to me. Why? Because he blames the reduction of a future fleet below 300 ships on the actions of Secretary Winter.

...you may have missed the big announcement coming out of the U.S. Navy. Hard-charging Navy Secretary Donald Winter has brought his crusade for fundamental reform in the shipbuilding industry to its first major milestone, effectively canceling plans for a 300-ship fleet.

That's the likely long-term consequence of his decision to terminate a contract with General Dynamics for a new warship called the Littoral Combat Ship.

But now the Navy secretary has decided to cancel contracts with both of the companies competing to build the new class of ships, leaving a big hole in shipbuilding plans.

Let me be clear. Those last three quotes, are opinions straight out of industry talking points. They are misguided and misleading. Let me see, what has changed so far? Oh ya, the Navy has canceled 2 Littoral Combat ships that were way over budget. There were also 2 Littoral Combat Ships canceled by Congress. Why were the first two over budget? Well, according to the facts it is due to a combination of Navy changes and contractor mismanagement. How do you fix this? If you are an advocate for the LCS, the answer is to not issue the contracts until the design is more mature and the contractors are better prepared to build the ship, so that everyone has a better understanding of costs.

But if you focus in on the LCS program for a second, the truth is, the delay should have happened anyway and the problem was ultimately with the rushed nature of the plan. How is Secretary Winter's decision not to let shipbuilders rush into building more LCS without understanding the costs a bad thing if the total program delay is ultimately a single year. Ironically, many were calling for a delay period after the first two ships even before the first LCS was funded to insure a stable program and cost efficient design.

Bottom line, Secretary Winter did the right thing for the Navy and Taxpayers, and Loren Thompson is playing the fear and loathing card for the industry over the LCS. The FY08 budget ultimately reduces the number of LCS hulls by two, a loss of 4 out of 7 LCS to date, but also adds 5 new ships not included in the 313-ship plan down the line. By my math the Navy is sitting with a potential net gain of 1 leading into FY09 if the Navy sticks to the 313-ship plan.

If Loren Thompson wants to be an advocate for a better Navy, maybe he should advocate for a better concept in dealing with the irregular challenges outlined in the Maritime Strategy. One way to be an advocate for a better Navy would be to call out the Navy for throwing 'a naval truck one size fits all' platform as the only solution to irregular warfare, the only alternative to 3+ billion surface combatants, and the only new Naval surface fleet shipbuilding program less than 14,000 tons. Instead he is blaming SECNAV because that one and only small platform isn't turning out to be as advertised. If he doesn't like that approach, he can always do the really hard work and get out front in advocating against the 313-ship plan, considering the number of interviews he does on Navy issues every week, it isn't like he doesn't have a pulpit. CNO Roughead is reportedly NOT rocking the boat, maybe things would improve in shipbuilding if people like Loren Thompson advocated that he starts rocking already.

One thing is for sure, Secretary Winter deserves better than to be the blame for what is happening in the Navy. That is particularly true considering outside Congress, he is the only one I see making legitimate efforts trying to fix the problems.