Tracking Russian Submarines

We have been observing the media reports of Russia Naval activity off the coast of Norway, and the response by the Norwegian Air Force and Navy to the increased activity of the Russian Air Force, as well as naval surface and submarine activity. DefenseNews has a new report.

The second half of 2007 has seen an increase in submarine activity out of Russia’s Northern Fleet Base (NFB) in Murmansk, according to fresh “tracking” reports produced by the Norway Armed Forces’ Military Intelligence Unit (MIU) for the Ministry of Defense (MoD) The increase in submarine activity mirrors a rise in scheduled and unflagged exercises by Russian air Force in the North Atlantic and off Norway’s western coast, the report observes.

However, the report notes that Norway’s territorial waters and airspace have not been violated by the increase in Russia’s air and naval operations in the region. The report explained the increased activity as “Russia’s need to display its renewed military strength” to NATO.

What caught our eye earlier this week was the report that Ula class submarines were going to be deployed to monitor the naval activity of Russian submarines. Noteworthy in this latest report is that the Royal Norwegian Air Force has apparently already had success tracking movements of the Russian submarine operating in the area.

The report’s findings are based on intelligence gathered by Royal Norwegian Air Force (RNAF)-operated Orion surveillance aircraft, and aircraft “tracking” data collected by the RNAF’s Northern Air Force base in Bodo.

This blog often makes remarks critical of the capabilities of the US Navy ASW capability, but we want to note the fine print in previous remarks. We are not impressed by the US Navy Surface Fleets capabilities in ASW, and we have no reason to be excited about future systems like the LCS which is expected to increase the capabilities of the US Navy surface fleet in ASW. However, we acknowledge and often see evidence overseas in reporting that aircraft and submarines remain the two most valuable components of effective submarine tracking and ASW, with Norway being yet another example in these latest media reports.

The US has retired many of its own P-3C Orion aircraft, or converted them from maritime surveillance aircraft to the electronic surveillance version EP-3 variants. The Navy has also been deploying its maritime surveillance aircraft, effectively we have noted, as land based surveillance aircraft to augment the capabilities of the air force while UAV systems continue being developed and deployed.

The report that the Royal Norwegian Air Force (RNAF)-operated Orion surveillance aircraft have had success tracking Russian submarines reminds us that fixed wing, long range maritime surveillance aircraft are still critical to ASW tracking operations. This is where the early retirement of the S-3, and the early removal of its ASW systems have left the Navy without a suitable replacement, which leaves our carrier strike groups vulnerable due to the lack of endurance and range in the helicopter fleet being asked to pull extra duty in filling the ASW gap.

Norway also serves as a lesson for Canada, who themselves may very well face Russian submarines off their Northern Coast for an entirely different set of reasons. With a submarine force of questionable availability, the Aurora maritime patrol planes Canada is having a little political spout over represents an important national security interest for Canadians, and the capability for quickest response to activity on is northern sea territories.