As Pakistan Descends Into Mourning

It was an interesting day as we woke up to learn of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. There are a lot of really good round ups on the net, this one being the best btw, but as the day approached late afternoon I began searching for a few specific details. First, I was waiting to read what Ahmed Rashid, perhaps the best reporter on all things Pakistan, was going to write.

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto has left a huge political vacuum at the heart of this nuclear-armed state, which appears to be slipping into an abyss of violence and Islamic extremism. The question of what happens next is almost impossible to answer, especially at a moment when Bhutto herself seemed to be the only answer.

This next paragraph could only be written by someone who personally feels the emotions that must be straining that nation today.

Benazir Bhutto and her Pakistan People's Party were the closest anyone in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan has ever gotten to espousing a secular, democratic political culture. In a country where political advances have been made recently only by the Taliban, the role Bhutto filled, trying to bring modernity to this nation of 165 million people, was immensely brave and absolutely necessary if Pakistan is to remain in the polity of nations. Whatever her shortcomings, she loved her country and gave her life for it.

His entire article is an excellent read. He realizes there is real potential for bad to turn worse quickly, and the passion of his country really comes out well in the article.

While I'm sure the US media will descend into mourning and round table politics to observe events in Pakistan, I am not sure we are going to learn much with that approach. If you want to get a feeling for what will happen here, I think one will need to keep a close eye on China. They have already issued their strong condemnation, but that isn't what I'm waiting to see.

I don't see a scenario where China sits by and watches a nation on its border, particularly one where so much economic and strategic partnerships have been established the last few years..., stand idle should Pakistan starts turning into chaos. The US may 'encourage' Musharraf to take this or that action, but China has a lot of influence throughout the Pakistani military, and they will quietly extend a boot into someone's rear side to keep things in control, with or without Musharraf.

China has the influence in the military to steer events, we have seen the evidence time and time again. There is a reason the only tribes the Pak military actively engages are the tribes found near Gwador, and it wasn't an accident earlier this year that shortly after the extremists killed the Chinese nationalists during the Red Mosque incident the Pakistan military quickly concluded that sad episode. Indeed, don't get lost listening to the US media's fixation with American solutions and responses, if you want to observe what will happen next in Pakistan, observe how China reacts, they have a tremendous amount at stake, much more leverage than the US from the inside, and as a nation with a shared border with Pakistan, they are much closer to the issue.

I'm not trying to downplay the US role, nor downplay the stakes with the nuclear arsenal, rather I'm highlighting that our leverage hasn't produced results to the same degree the Chinese have in encouraging action against Islamic extremists who stir the pot in Pakistan.

For those who are interested, the next series of scheduled US Navy deployments begin starting today (Friday December 28th). With these scheduled deployments already in the pipeline over the next several weeks, it is unlikely we will see any surge activity, although I'm sure the US media will overplay these scheduled deployments as something otherwise.