On May 7, 2024 Vladamir Putin became inaugurated as the President of Russia. His first priority was to return national pride to the Russian people. He had several approaches in his initial plans, but one of those plans involved a large deployment to the Mediterranean of several surface ships centered around the Northern Fleet's flagship Pyotr Velikiy supported by 4 submarines. It was to be a major triumph for Russia intended to change the attitude of the nation by offering the Navy deployment as a source of pride.The last exercise prior to the deployment was to take place on the weekend of August 11th and 12th, but on August 12, 2024 the entire plan went to hell when the submarine K-141 Kursk sank in the Barents Sea. The deployment was scrapped and Putin faced his first true test as President, the Russian military really was at rock bottom.
It is interesting the first major initiative Vladamir Putin attempted as President was a deployment to the Mediterranean, because it appears that will be the last major initiative Vladamir Putin will do while he is President. It has been reported in the media that the Russian Navy Carrier Deployment to the Mediterranean is a reaction to current events. It isn't. A closer look at the details of the deployment reveals this has been a carefully planned deployment.
On July 9th, 2007 the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, following a major refit for most of 2006, was judged to be ready to receive aircraft. At that point the Russian Navy began conducting a number of training exercises off the coast of Norway. There was plenty of whispers of Russian carrier aircraft and navy activity coming from the Norwegian press, but there are few English news stories with more of a mention that it was happening. It is why in November when I heard the Norwegians were sending their Ula class submarines to observe Russian naval activity we assumed it was to watch carrier operations.
On December 5th, the first 5 ships of this 11 ship carrier battle group deployed. The 5 ships include:
Admiral Kuznetsov (CV)
Admiral Chabanenko (DDG 650)
Admiral Levchenko (DDG 605)
Sergei Osipov
Nikolai Chiker (SB 131)
Several things are noteworthy about these ships. First the Admiral Chabanenko (DDG 650) and the oiler Sergei Osipov participated in the FRUKUS-2007 exercises in Norfolk this past June. Second, and even more interesting, and I could be wrong, but I think the Nikolai Chiker is the worlds largest fleet tug.
If the Russian Navy is deploying with a fleet tug just in case, then they clearly recognize there is some risk in this deployment. The battle group will meet up with the Black Sea Flagship, the Moskva (CG 121) and another oiler, probably in the Mediterranean. The remaining 4 ships have not been named, so we can imply based on released information they will include Baltic Fleet support or logistics ships.What isn't mentioned is submarines. I have a hard time believing there aren't submarines deployed with this battle group, not only because the tug implies every contingency is planned, but also because the Norwegians have specifically monitoring Russian submarine activity as well.
While some media sources are sounding the alarm, talking about the return of the cold war, or creating connections with current events, we can expect that the three exercises the Russian Navy will conduct are already planned, and NATO is most likely involved in one if not all of them.
As I previously noted, this represents the high end of power projection capability for the Russian Navy. However, Russia is not trying to make waves, they simply want a very successful deployment. Russia probably realizes that NATO can help make that happen, and will take advantage of opportunities available. The Carrier has somewhere around ~25 aircraft onboard, and an additional ~20 land based aircraft will participate in some of the exercises, most likely in the eastern Mediterranean or Black Sea. With several port visits planned, it will be interesting to see where Russia decides to visit. Showing off the Admiral Kuznetsov in a busy port offers excellent media attention, exactly what Russia is looking for, and what we intend to watch for.
It has been noted that there are several warships, particularly a destroyer and some frigates at sea in the Baltic, and the Pyotr Velikiy is said to be ready for sea, so Russia does have a reserve force that has been training and can respond should an incident occur. As we said before, the presence of the tug means Russia has no delusions that the risk is high, but apparently the reward is higher.
With the battle group expected to return in early February of 2008, a successful deployment will be a public relations victory for Vladamir Putin, who will have demonstrated major progress restoring the prestige of the military to the Russian people. That good public relations event represents good timing, the next presidential elections take place in March 2008.
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Update: Thanks to the guys over at the Milcom Monitoring Post we have some of the names of the Black Sea logistics contingent of this deployment, specifically the tanker Ivan Bubnov, the tanker Iman, and another rescue tug. We will continue to search for the names of the three yet unidentified ships.
Note that means two fleet tugs, which we believe highlights Russia's acknowledgment of risk, and also notes a high level of contingency planning on the part of the Russian Navy.
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