Changing the Conditions With Iran

We intentionally avoided immediate discussion of the recently released National Intelligence Estimate released last week. One of the first discussions we had after reading the document is how distracting the politics of the document will be. We feel vindicated that the politics of the NIE has indeed been distracting.

Prior to the release of the NIE we have been monitoring the opinions of various credible specialists (example) who have kept a keen eye on the nuclear program in Iran, and the consensus among the experts who analyze such data is that Iran will not be able to produce a nuclear weapon until 2009 at the earliest. This is in fact the last item contained in the NIE. In other words, the state of Iran's nuclear program remains largely unchanged in our mind even after the NIE.

Ignore The Politics

We find the politics of the NIE very distracting, highlighting the trouble with strict partisanship in serious matters. One can observe the fallout and leave asking a question, where are the adults among our elected leadership?

On the left we have a rhetoric that wants it both ways. The books were cooked for the NIE relating to Iraq, but the NIE relating to Iran represents unquestionable accuracy in every finding. I've learned to ignore partisans on the left, it is getting increasingly difficult to find adults on serious issues relating to Foreign Policy on that side of politics, too much desire for displacement of ones own world view to see clearly.

On the other hand, the right is scrambling black helicopters to find a conspiracy, deploying tactics that attack the messenger to undermine the message. These partisans are even more out in the deep end of the ocean, implying that it is even possible to create an intelligence conspiracy even after they have spent every day since 2003 denying it was possible for Iraq.

The U.S. military contributes nine of the 16 intelligence agencies whose views are cobbled together in NIEs: the Counterintelligence Field Activity, the Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Agency, Army Intelligence, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Marine Corps Intelligence Activity, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, the National Reconnaissance Office, the National Security Agency, and the Office of Naval Intelligence. With that in mind, understand that producing an NIE is a bureaucratic exercise that involves multiple agencies of the government where opinions are argued and disputes are mediated, and at the end of the day dissent is attached in the footnotes. When dealing with this many professionals, any attempt to follow some subset of partisan talking points would result in an intellectual asswhoopin'.

Ultimately, we find the politics irrelevant and distracting.

Observe the Effects

So if the Iranian nuclear weapon program is considered by the estimate of experts to be in about the same place it was prior to the release of the estimate, which leaves the question: what has changed with the release of the NIE?

First it should be noted that the irony here is the media assumptions being made that appear to make the US appear more of a dove on Iran than both France and the IAEA. It should also be noted that Israel just bombed Syria, specifically a facility that is claimed to have a connection to nuclear development. That is noteworthy as Israel could be increasing the US pool of intelligence on Iran during today's meeting.

We also find a bit of coincidence in that following repeated, and we note ignored, comments from CENTCOM that rhetoric of war against Iran is "unhelpful" the position of the US is now sold and accepted that there will be no military action. This reduction in tension is so sudden, and yet so forceful at the same time, that it transforms the conditions of the region instantly. We can't help but wonder if that was an intentional and desired side effect of our intelligence community, a rare consensus that would both fit the data and yet, do what needs to be done, specifically to change the regional conditions and tone.

In other words, the conditions of Iran's nuclear program appears unchanged but the conditions between the US and Iran has suddenly, completely changed. When you think about it, that is a pretty substantial change, because for the first time since 2004 the US finds itself in a position to take just about any action the US chooses, and can do so as a "new" initiative. Up until this point, the US has allowed Europe lead negotiations on the nuclear issue with Iran. It could be argued the NIE puts the US in position to take over the lead in diplomatic negotiations. Given the US Treasury is causing major problems for Iranian business unable to get a loan from Chinese banks, and both France and Britain have confirmed their commitment to sanctions, the US is in a better negotiating position now than we were just a few months ago.

One final observation. The price of oil dropped under $90 and has remained steady since the NIE release. That price is built on speculation, supply, and demand. The speculation has centered around a possible conflict between the US and Iran, but with that possibility apparently less likely it will be interesting to see if the price falls. One could hope.