Admiral Sureesh Mehta said, "We are now actively looking at the second line of submarines after the Scorpenes. I think the global tender for the six new submarines should be floated in the next financial year (2008-2009)."
Indian Navy is seems to be interested in German HDW, Russian Amur, or additional French Scorpenes for its next order.
Indian Navy currently operates 16 conventional diesal-electric submarines. The diesal-electric submarines include 10 Russian Kilo-class, four German HDW-class and two Foxrot-class submarines.
It isn't that I think it is a bad thing for India to build up a submarine fleet, rather I think it is hilarious how little the Indians seem to regard the potential of so many different classes of submarines. Are these 6 submarines that India intends to compete next year intended to replace the 4 209s and 2 Foxtrots? One would hope do, and if true that gives the impression that India has settled on the number of 22 conventional submarines.
India is also building the Advanced Technology Vessel, expected to be completed by 2009.
"Advance Technology Vessel (as the Nuclear powered submarine is classified) would be ready in two years time," the Naval Chief said in first public comments about the project. The submarine is being built by by Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) as a technology demonstrator.
"The scientists have confirmed that they would have the project ready for trials by 2009," Mehta said.
There are plenty of reasons to doubt it will actually be completed by 2009, starting with the fact India has been working on a domestically built nuclear submarine for nearly 3 decades with less than impressive results. For example, in March we were told the ATV would be launched this year, but that didn't quite work out as planned. However I do admire the ambition. The ATV is said to be for deploying nuclear weapons, armed with either the Sagarika cruise missile or the Agni-III ballistic missile. The Indian Navy had previously disclosed they intend to build 5 ATVs.
Admiral Mehta also confirmed India would lease 1 Akula class SSN next year from Russia for 10 years.
So lets do the math. India will have 10 Kilo's for the foreseeable future, in fact a broad modernization is currently taking place. India currently has 4 Type 209s, also in a modernization program, that will need to be in service until replaced sometime after 2020. India also has two Foxtrots that may or may not last much longer. India is currently building 6 Scorpene's expected to be delivered between 2012 and 2017. The ATV is expected to come into service in 2012, and the Akula lease is expected to last until 2018. Finally we have 6 more submarines that could be either a new German or Russian design, or perhaps more Scorpene submarines.
That means somewhere between 3-5 different conventional submarine classes, and at least 2 nuclear submarine classes. Considering the price of the Scorpene's is already going up and the refits for the Kilo's have proven very expensive, it is hard to see how the Indian submarine force isn't going to prove to be extraordinarily expensive, and a logistical nightmare.
In around 5 years from now, sometime around 2012, particularly because the Indian press does such an entertaining job reporting on naval affairs, expect to see a big political mess as the costs go up with people questioning the Admirals "what the hell were you thinking!" The answer to the logistics nightmare of coarse is to build the domestic industry, which India is doing a good job of, but observing the impending logistical nightmare that will result from India filling the submarine gap with so many different classes in the meantime is like watching a car crash in slow motion.
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