Shaking Up the Fleet Leadership ... In Russia

Fred Thompson is a pretty good actor, at least he was in "The Hunt for Red October." My favorite line of that movie is when he says "The average Rooskie, son, don't take a dump without a plan."

Whenever I see Putin doing his mover and shaker routine within the armed forces, I think of that phrase. Unlike the western leaders, Putin appears to have a very detailed vision regarding what he wants from his armed forces right now, and this is the next phase for the Russian Navy.

Rear Admiral Konstantin Sidenko took over as commander of Russia's Pacific Fleet in the port of Vladivostok on Saturday, the Russian News and Information Agency (RIA Novosti) reported.

Sidenko, 53, was appointed to the post on Dec. 6 amid a major military leadership reshuffle. Sidenko was chief of staff and deputy commander of the Pacific Fleet since April 2002, said the report.

Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov said in August that the entire Navy leadership would be reshuffled by the end of 2007 to ensure the Navy's future development and strengthen the combat readiness of naval forces, according to the report.

Earlier this year, Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky, 53, replaced Admiral Vladimir Masorin as Navy Commander, while Vice Admiral Alexander Kletskov, 52, was appointed commander of the Black Sea Fleet and Vice Admiral Nikolai Maksimov, 51, became commander of the Northern Fleet.

As I pointed out back in August, Russia is building a fleet, but it isn't designed to float, rather it is designed to dive. The Russian plan to build its new Navy starts with a heavy dose of strategic nuclear submarines through at least 2012, at which time they will begin mass producing frigates.

There are still people talking about aircraft carriers, and Russia may indeed build them, but it really depends more on how effective they are at modernizing their shipyards than anything else. If things continue according to current plans, it is going to be very interesting to see how the US Navy uses the next 12 years, because Russia's Navy will be a transformed force by around 2020 at the current rate.

Putin is on a 15 year plan he started in 2005. By 2012 the most expensive part, the strategic nuclear submarines, will be payed for. Given the focus on industry modernization until then, that should put Russia in position to produce between 5-8 surface combatants a year between 2013-2020, or somewhere between 40-64 surface combatants. I'm intentionally not counting the submarine yards, which currently have around 14 billion in export orders still to fill over the next 4 years.

I'll add one more thought. If Putin is building a fleet it is for a specific reason, a traditional ground power with an air force as strong as Russia has no need for a large Navy unless there is some specific purpose otherwise. I haven't quite figured out the connection, but Putin is almost fanatical about Russia's role in the Med, something is in that region he sees critical to Russia. I'm not ready to draw any theories yet, but there are very few reasonable explanations for a land power like Russia to spend so much of its treasure on its Navy without a purpose to do so. The applicable analogy would be for an island nation like Japan to build up a huge Army, it is counter intuitive.