The Confusion in the Strait Continues

The Pentagon is going to release the full video of last weeks Strait of Hormuz incident. The video is reported to be 36 minutes long. I have not seen a full copy available online for download yet, will update when it is.

It is very interesting how many reported details are wrong. For example, there were a number of reports that there were objects dropped in front of the USS Ingraham (FFG 61). We speculated the Navy must have been able to quickly detect these objects, and we are now learning that indeed was the case. According to news reporting from the Washington Post today, the white box incident doesn't appear to involve the USS Ingraham (FFG 61) as earlier reported, it was actually the USS Port Royal (CG 73). The Washington Post article has a lot of new details.

Although Mullen described last weekend's incident, in which five small Iranian speedboats approached three U.S. warships in the Strait of Hormuz, as the most "provocative and dramatic" encounter he could recall in the area, the Navy announced a few hours later that two other incidents occurred last month in which its ships had close calls with Iranian speedboats. On Dec. 19, the USS Whidbey Island fired warning shots when a single Iranian boat came within 500 yards of it in the strait. On Dec. 22, the USS Carr emitted warning blasts as three Iranian vessels sped close by in the same area, a Navy official said.

The USS Carr (FFG 52) is on its way home from the Gulf with the Kearsarge ESG. The USS Whidbey Island (LSD 41) isn't exactly a gunboat, what did it fire, flares? There is more to this story, I'm starting to smell a Fox. As this unfolds, I'm not going to be surprised if we find there are more incidents beyond these few leaking out, I've had the impression for awhile now Fallon has been controlling the information so he can control the message in his theater. In observing Fallon, even back when he was in the Pacific (remember the Song incident), he never liked to create public political tension between the major regional actors and the US when these types of incidents occurred. That doesn't mean he dismisses the seriousness of the situation, rather he has always preferred to approach serious problems without the public political noise.

The Washington Post article has a lot of interesting details, worth reading in full.

We noted after the incident that the Navy must have had intelligence regarding small boat operations attempting to draw US Navy warships into a gunfight in the Strait. It would appear that there have been previous encounters that support that earlier theory. I had speculated early on that releasing the full video would be a good idea since the incident had been leaked into the public. I think it has been politically good for the US in dealing with regional partners, and releasing the entire video again highlights the dishonesty of Iran. I am no longer certain that the leak of this incident to the public has been good for the Navy, as it has turned into a no win situation. If the Navy doesn't shoot if raises questions if the Navy is protecting themselves. If they do shoot, they start a major incident.

Clearly the Gulf of Tonkin theory that the Navy is trying to start a war doesn't apply. Not only have their been previous incidents involving warning shots fired that went previously unreported, and can now be verified by talking to USS Whidbey Island (LSD 41) sailors (it is no longer an OPSEC issue because the Pentagon said it happened), but for a conspiracy to exist here it would require nearly 1200 sailors on what is now 5 different warships to make up stories. The flip side of that is it would require the CIA to be the people in the small boats, and in this latest incident those CIA operatives would be so well infiltrated that they can put their movie on Iranian TV. The conspiracy doesn't really mean much here.

I expect to see the serious news organizations transition from the Gulf of Tonkin implied line of thinking to the Fox Fallon factor. There is clearly a split between CENTCOM and the administration on how to deal with Iran, and this incident again highlights that split.

This incident highlights the increased concern the Navy has regarding the IRGC operations in the Gulf. The IRGC appears to have learned something from the media storm following the British hostage incident last year. In that incident, international support went to the British by just about everyone, because it was the IRGC that instigated the problem. The new approaches by the IRGC appears to be an attempt to lure the Americans into being the instigator. Several naval professionals who have operated in the region have highlighted the professional nature of the regular Iranian Navy, particularly regarding their P-3 aircraft and primary naval ships. From all indications, the US Navy is still adapting to interactions with the IRGC on these small boats.

It will be interesting to see what happens next. The formal protest and the media attention has sent the signal these small boat encounters are very effective for the IRGC in intimidating the Navy, because it does play into the Navy's concerns of small suicide boats based on the lessons of the USS Cole (DDG 67) incident, not to mention the concern the Navy expresses in the language used to justify the requirement for the LCS program. We tend to think the IRGC will adapt and become more aggressive if intimidation is indeed their intent with these interactions, meaning our earlier opinion the video would help reduce tensions would be inaccurate.

It will be interesting if the US attempts to find a way to reduce the tensions in the Gulf, as under Gates and Fallon that has been the strategy on every issue regarding Iran, whether Iraq or the nuclear issue. If it is up to Fallon, it is a good bet this incident becomes less and less threatening from a CENTCOM perspective, they desire the lack of public tension as part of their larger strategy. Many have speculated that is opposite the desires of the administration, so we'll continue to observe what happens as this incident continues to move forward.