Give Us More Submarines!

Apparently someone believes it is a good idea to expand the number of submarines. No, not the US Navy, rather some are calling for up to a dozen new submarines to follow the Collins class for the Royal Australian Navy.

AUSTRALIA may need to double the size of its submarine fleet tocounter the growing and deadly threat posed by rival submarines in the region, former defence minister Kim Beazley said yesterday.

His comments come after The Australian this week revealed that Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon had ordered planning to begin on the next generation of submarines to replace the six Collins-class boats when they are retired in 2025.

Mr Beazley also called on the Rudd Government to urgently tackle what he said was a "glaring weakness" in Australia's anti-submarine warfare capabilities.

"This weakness comes at a time when (the navy) will soon be producing the best submarine targets in the region with the new air warfare destroyers and amphibious landing ships," Mr Beazley told The Weekend Australian.

That last observation is noteworthy. A few things need to be considered. The US Navy and Royal Australian Navy are joined at the hip, anyone who thinks otherwise isn't paying attention. The military satellite systems in the Pacific have become joint ventures, and several of the communication networks both countries use have become the same. The intention of this is obvious, it is to insure that should China engage one or the other in a war, China will have to fight both.

Additionally, if there is a weakness on the F-100, it is certainly ASW. The obvious alternative though is that Australia is not buying VSTOL Joint Strike Fighters, so there will be plenty of room for ASW helicopters on their new LHDs which could make them excellent ASW platforms, apparently a detail lost on Mr. Beazley (or more likely he wants to see the VSTOL JSF). However, if given the choice between using a LHD as an ASW platform or having more submarines, I'll take more submarines every time.

With that said, the regional players who are buying submarines is nothing to shake a stick at. China will soon have the largest submarine fleet in the world, and India is soon to have the third largest behind only the US and China. Indonesia and Malaysia are also upgrading their submarine fleets, and that doesn't include Pakistan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan who either have or are working on new modern submarine fleets of their own. It is too early to estimate how many submarines will ultimately be in operation throughout the Pacific and Indian Oceans, but you can be sure of one thing, that number will be very high.

We have already heard Australia is planning to spend around $20 billion US for new Collins class replacement submarines. Now we are hearing the number 12 tossed around. What does it all mean?

It means Australia sees the Collins replacement to be more expensive than the Collins. This also implies the design doesn't exist today, and the commitment to building the submarines domestically, where it will be more expensive, is legitimate. As far as the design not existing today, we are hearing that from virtually every direction. It also means the number 12 is a target, not the plan. It should be pointed out the original plan was for 8 Collins class, not 6.

As far as the design specifics, ME is probably closer to the mark with his Darwin Class suggestion than we were with our S-80 option, but in the end it is hard to guess what the final product will be. The one aspect of the new submarine we continue to hear discussed is the design effort that will focus on a USV launch. If that is truly the case, with 20 billion dollars Australia has a number of choices.

In observing the various time frames, it seems to me there are a lot of options here. If the US Navy was really on their game they would work with the RAN on this project. Just doing the math, it looks to me like the Ohio class SSGNs are going to need to be replaced around the same time as the Collins class submarines. Maybe I'm off here, but it seems to me that if both countries are looking for a next generation underwater mothership around the same time frame, there is something to be said about a joint venture on the project. There is certainly something in it for the US Navy, for example, a joint submarine program could potentially lead to that submarine base in Australia the US Navy wants so badly.