MoD Moves Forward With CVF

The MoD is moving forward with the CVF program, despite delays. AP Reports:

The Royal Navy's two new aircraft carriers will go ahead as planned despite a delay in signing the contract, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has said.

The MoD confirmed that there had been a "slight delay" while the joint venture between BAE Systems and the VT Group, which will build the ships, was established as a legal entity.

But a spokesman said that it would not affect the £3.9 billion programme which was confirmed by Defence Secretary Des Browne last July.

"The programme is going ahead and there is no delay to the existing schedule. The comprehensive spending review does allow us to proceed with this," the spokesman said.

Privately officials are confident that the contract signing - which had been expected as early as next week - will go ahead by early February at the latest.

Delays raise cost, so more delays could cripple the program. Until it is final, it is hard to get excited about this news, particularly with the track record of action by Gordon Brown.

We have made clear in the past we are not very excited about the CVF. They are great capabilities, but with no additional funding for the Royal Navy on the horizon, we see the CVFs as being built at the expense of what could be a much larger surface combatant fleet the Royal Navy that would be able to deploy to meet the national interests of Great Britain.

We are on record predicting the Royal Navy will drop to 20 surface combatants, those Type 22s will be retired early despite hope otherwise. With 2 CVFs, 2 LHDs, and 1 LHA the Royal Navy is basically building a fleet centered around 5 high value units and 20 escorts leading into 2020, or maximum of up to five five-ship strike groups. It comes down to build rates and decommissions.

Considering the broad range of overseas interests for Great Britain, that isn't many ships, and at that point the once proud Royal Navy will be reduced in numbers behind several nations in Europe. With upcoming retirements of escorts over the next decade, the FSC will have to replace at least one for one with the Type 23s just to maintain 20 surface combatants. Hopefully the build rate for the FSC will be higher than a one for one replacement, and the Royal Navy will be able to increase the number of surface vessels over 20 starting around 2020.