NATO And The Nuclear Option

It is never a good thing when the nuclear option gets thrown around in conversations with the media, but we are starting to see it done recently in ways that might interest readers of this blog.
The first preemptive strike discussion involving the topic of NATO was released in late 2007, and the Guardian ran a news report about it today with the headline "Pre-emptive nuclear strike a key option, Nato told". Confusing headline? Yes, but it is the Guardian, and they are actually responding to other news...

The west must be ready to resort to a pre-emptive nuclear attack to try to halt the "imminent" spread of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, according to a radical manifesto for a new Nato by five of the west's most senior military officers and strategists.

Calling for root-and-branch reform of Nato and a new pact drawing the US, Nato and the European Union together in a "grand strategy" to tackle the challenges of an increasingly brutal world, the former armed forces chiefs from the US, Britain, Germany, France and the Netherlands insist that a "first strike" nuclear option remains an "indispensable instrument" since there is "simply no realistic prospect of a nuclear-free world".

The manifesto has been written following discussions with active commanders and policymakers, many of whom are unable or unwilling to publicly air their views. It has been presented to the Pentagon in Washington and to Nato's secretary general, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, over the past 10 days. The proposals are likely to be discussed at a Nato summit in Bucharest in April.

The report the Guardian is calling 'grand strategy is actually called "Towards a Grand Strategy for an Uncertain World". It is an interesting read that asks tough questions regarding the effectiveness of NATO, and should get the discussion in Bucharest rolling in a meaningful way. The study is authored by General Klaus Naumann, (former Chief of the Defence Staff of Germany and former Chairman of the NATO Military Committee), General John Shalikashvili, former SACEUR and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Field Marshal Peter Anthony Inge, former Chief of the Defence Staff of the United Kingdom, Admiral Jacques Lanxade, former Chief of the Defense Staff in France, and General Henk van den Breemen, Former Chief of the Defense Staff of the Netherlands.

The report states "NATO must seek clarity on its geographical dimension. ... When considering NATO enlargement to full membership, the geostrategic sphere must be taken fully into account, as must the capabilities of the current members to defend new members collectively; but so also must the capabilities of new members to defend everyone else collectively. Article 5 is an important two-way street, and we cannot extend membership in a manner that would dilute its meaning and value." That sounds a lot like what Gates has been saying in his recent speeches.

For a more blunt report, Stanley Kober, a research fellow in Foreign Policy Studies for CATO, has a study out called "Cracks in the Foundation NATO’s New Troubles" where he makes the point "The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is beginning to fracture. Its members, sharing the triumphalism that underpinned U.S. foreign policy after the Cold War, took on burdens that have proved more difficult than expected. Increasingly, they are failing to meet the challenges confronting them."

Why is this coming up now? The title of the Guardian piece "Pre-emptive nuclear strike a key option, Nato told" really has nothing to do with the content of any of the information in that report, instead it refers to another news item from two days ago.

Russia's military chief of staff said Saturday that Moscow could use nuclear weapons in preventive strikes to protect itself and its allies, the latest aggressive remarks from increasingly assertive Russian authorities.

Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky's comment did not mark a policy shift, military analysts said. Amid disputes with the West over security issues, it may have been meant as a warning that Russia is prepared to use its nuclear might.

"We do not intend to attack anyone, but we consider it necessary for all our partners in the world community to clearly understand ... that to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia and its allies, military forces will be used, including preventively, including with the use of nuclear weapons," Baluyevsky said at a military conference in a remark broadcast on state-run cable channel Vesti-24.

While this isn't a change from the Russian doctrine of the cold war, it is a reminder that the more the world talks about how much things have change over the last 2 decades, the more things really haven't changed much at all. In reality, the 21st century is shaping up to look like the same hornets nest, but with a different group of hornets.