Sun Sets on 313-Ship Plan, Downward Spiral For Shipbuilding Begins in FY09

Gene Taylor may be talking up 10 ships per year for the next 5 years, but the Navy and the Bush administration have a different plan, and we have been hearing all day the 313-ship plan is officially dead.

The new FY09 - FY13 five year shipbuilding plan makes a number of changes in the next 5 years for shipbuilding, which shouldn't surprise anyone considering all but 6 of the 7 years of the Bush administration have been marked by changes in the next years shipbuilding plan. Below are the details that will be presented in the presidents FY09 budget. It is ugly and complicated, so we list it out by platform then by FY in an attempt to make it easy to read.

Mobile Landing Platform (MLP) - 1 - FY10 1 - FY12 1- FY13

Large Medium-Speed Roll-On/Roll-Off (LMSR) - 1 - FY12

LHA(R) for Sea Base - 1- FY10

LHA(R), LPD-17, and High Speed Sealift ships are not included in FY09 - FY13 five year plan.

LCS plan remains same as previously covered. 2 - FY09, 3 - FY10, 3 - Fy11, 4 - FY12, 6 - FY13 (18 total)

Virginia class (SSN) - 1 FY09, 1 FY10, 2 - FY11, 2 - FY12, 2 - FY13

Joint High Speed Vessel program - one annually from FY-09 to FY-13. The Pentagon also plans to buy additional JHSVs in the coming years for the Army.

T-ATF tug in FY-13 - canceled

Lewis-and-Clark-class (T-AKE) - 2 - FY09

CVN78 - 1 - FY12

CG(X) - 1 - FY11, 1 - FY-13

DDG-1000 - 1 FY09, 1 FY10, 1 - FY11, 1 - FY12, 1 - FY13

JCC(X) command ship - 1 - FY12

This is the breakdown of the 5 year plan FY09 - FY13 included in the upcoming FY09 budget:

FY09 - 7 ships

2 LCS
1 Virginia class (SSN)
1 Joint High Speed Vessel
2 Lewis-and-Clark-class (T-AKE)
1 DDG-1000

FY10 - 8 ships

1 Mobile Landing Platform (MLP)
1 LHA(R) for Sea Base
3 LCS
1 Virginia class (SSN)
1 Joint High Speed Vessel
1 DDG-1000

FY11 - 8 ships

3 LCS
2 Virginia class (SSN)
1 Joint High Speed Vessel
1 CG(X)
1 DDG-1000

FY12 - 12 ships

1 Mobile Landing Platform (MLP)
1 Large Medium-Speed Roll-On/Roll-Off (LMSR)
4 LCS
2 Virginia class (SSN)
1 Joint High Speed Vessel
1 DDG-1000
1 CVN78
1 JCC(X)

FY13 - 12 ships

1 Mobile Landing Platform (MLP)
6 LCS
2 Virginia class (SSN)
1 Joint High Speed Vessel
1 DDG-1000
1 CG(X)


Thoughts. No way the ships in FY12 and FY13 get built as described, but if we assume all of this happens (a bad bet), it comes to 25 surface combatants, 18 of which are LCS. Also included is just 1 CVN and 1 LHA(R), no other aviation carrying platforms unless you count the 2 T-AKEs and 1 command ship.

Other ships include 4 MFP(F) ships and 5 JHSVs. Finally, 8 Virginia class submarines.

In total we count 47 ships and submarines, 33 combatants + 1 CVN + 1 LHA(R) for Sea Base, and 12 MSC ships. If your not happy, just remember, according to the CBO math, the 5 DDG-1000s costs more in total than not only the 18 LCS listed in this plan (assuming 400 million per), but you could buy an additional 18 more. According to the Navy's math, which is the math used by the Navy outlined in this plan, the 7th DDG-1000 built will cost the same as DDG-112.

At the same time, the Navy’s 2008 budget submission to the Congress estimates the cost of building the seventh DDG-1000 in 2013 at about $2.1 billion (in 2013 dollars). Deflated to 2008 dollars (using the inflation index for shipbuilding that the Navy provided to CBO), that estimate equals about $1.6 billion—or the same as for an additional DDG-51, which would have the benefit of substantial efficiencies and lessons learned from the 62 models built previously. The lightship displacement of the DDG-1000 is about 5,000 tons greater than that of the DDG-51s under construction today. In effect, the Navy’s estimates imply that those 5,000 extra tons, as well as the 10 new technologies to be incorporated into the DDG-1000 class, will be free.

We are also hearing the Navy will cut funding for F/A-18s, including the number of squadrons, and also the MH-60S, MV-22, and CH-53 among other items. What a mess the 8 years of Bush have been, and that includes the mess he will leave the next administration. The title implies the spiral begins, my screw up, more like continues.

This thread officially retires our 313-ship plan tag.