The Caribbean Concern

I remember reading in the comments section of Proceedings, must of been an early 2006 issue, where someone didn't believe the US should build any AIP submarines. The comment was something like, 'unless a potential competitor puts a submarine base in the Caribbean Sea, there is no reason to build AIP submarines for the US Navy.'

The thing about predictions, they sometimes come true.

Russia and Venezuela are at the final stage of talks on a deal to sell three Kilo-Class Project 636 submarines to Venezuela's Navy, which could be clinched in April, Vedomosti business daily said Tuesday.

The Project 636 submarine is designed for anti-submarine warfare and anti-surface-ship warfare, and also for general reconnaissance and patrol missions. It is considered to be one of the quietest diesel submarines in the world.

The paper quoted a Russian government agency official as saying that the $1.4 bln contract was agreed in principle last December and could be signed during President Hugo Chavez's visit to Russia in April, while delivery could start before the end of the year.

The Navy has not developed a technology to invalidate the AIP submarine, a technology that would make most of the Chinese submarine force of 2025 obsolete. We are not sure if that project is underway, although we believe it should be. Until then, the US should begin to examine what "low cost" options exist to blunt any potential submarine force build up in the Caribbean Sea.

We thought this was funny given previous discussions of the Klub and 636.

Dmitry Vasilyev, an expert with the Moscow based Center for Strategic and Technological Studies, said Russia may have agreed to install powerful anti-submarine Club missiles to compensate for its refusal to sell Caracas the Amur submarines.

The issue isn't the weaponry though, the issue is one of strategy. We've already observed the rumors of bringing back the 4th fleet. We aren't impressed. Submarines are low cost platforms that are difficult to counter. The question becomes, what is the low cost counter strategy, or will the Navy attempt to blow out the budget for another high priority, low probability requirement?