India and Russia Make Nice, For Now

Everything looks to be back on track.

India and Russia have ended a protracted dispute over the cost of a Soviet-era aircraft carrier which will be now sold at a higher price to the Indian navy in 2011, officials said Thursday.

Indian Defence Secretary V. K. Singh, returning from Moscow, said a new undisclosed price had been agreed for the 44,570-tonne Admiral Gorshkov.

Does anyone honestly believe India is goign to ever get the Admiral Gorshkov? I don't, the good faith in this deal existed last time too. We will have to wait and see, but there are no positive signs one can point to why this will work out. This part is just funny.

"India is sending more than 100 trained personnel from its shipyard to the Sevmash shipyard to join 1,200 Russian personnel who are working on that ship," a ministry official said.

So let me get this straight... India is sending 100 shipworkers to Severodvinsk, most of whom probably don't speak Russian, to work on an aircraft carrier during winter at the most northern shipyard in the world? Let me know how that works out.

Here is what we know. The 1200 folks who work for Sevmash shipyard have all been working on the Borei class SSBNs under construction there. No one has been working on the Admiral Gorshkov for months, and Russia has already spent all the money India originally paid. The Russian budget is getting another boost this year, and if it turns out to be anything like last year, a lot of the money will go to Sevmash shipyard so Russia can rapidly field the Borei class, which is Russia's top defense priority.

There is a shortage of skilled shipbuilding labor in Russia. In fact, as we understand it the problem is Russia went years without being able to properly train shipbuilders. Given the choice, which project does India believe Sevmash shipyard is going to assign its best workers, a new SSBN for the motherland or an old carrier for a foreign country?

The fighter deal part of the Kitty Hawk horse trade won't be decided until either the end of this year or next year, lets see how the construction of the Gorshkov has come along at that time before closing the book.

Because there are no positive signs, and let me use the word none for clarity, that give confidence to the future delivery of the Gorshkov to India, we still maintain this isn't over, and every rupee poured into Russia on this project is a rupee wasted. We still believe this will end badly for India. Guess we will have to wait and see.