Kosovo Declares Independence

The best news report I've seen yet is from the BBC.

The diplomatic gulf between Russia and many Western governments is widening with the declaration of independence by Kosovo.

What the United States and many EU countries see as the inevitable result of war and history is regarded as "immoral and illegal" in the words of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Most EU governments, certainly the British, see the move as a one-off, the final piece of the shattered jigsaw that was Yugoslavia being put into its new place.

We can expect Serbia to fight back. What the BBC article does well is describe the split between Russia and the US, a split that can be expected to grow much wider after today. As of 5 minutes ago, Drudge is running a huge front page giving Russia's opinion on the US satellite shootdown. Here is a tip, Russia is going to criticize everything the US does for a long time after today, on every subject.

The biggest blunder of the modern political era is also the greatest victory, the fall of the Soviet Union. While Americans jumped up and screamed in joy that the cold war was over, political leadership failed to capitalize, and the US was not prepared for the fall of the Soviet Union. It never reacted and did not build bridges, and approached everything except the nuclear weapons stockpiles with the attitude that Russians can fix their own problems. Economic packages and assistance, cooperation, and other diplomatic efforts were token at best, with intimidation included. The opportunity to build a genuine friendship between the US and Russia following the cold war slipped away, and we are on a slow return to the cold war, with today being a huge intersection crossed.

We can't rewrite history, but the west needs to start learning from it. The BBC article claims the British "see the move as a one-off" as a result of the war, but will it be a "one-off" next time too, specifically in Iraq if in ten years from now the Kurds want to declare independence? Westerns, and admittedly this blog from time to time as reflection, downplays the nationalistic protectionism that prevails in political circles in Moscow. What could possibly happen? The chain reaction could begin, as the BBC highlights.

Whether Russia will use the Kosovo precedent as an argument that Abkhazia and South Ossetia deserve independence or secession from Georgia remains to be seen.

At a recent security conference in Munich, the former Russian defence minister, Sergei Ivanov, spoke of Kosovo "opening a Pandora's box".

It didn't begin with Kosovo, Pandora's box between Russia and the West has been open for years now, the problem is it won't end there either.