US 193 Prep Continues

There are going to be some great stories to tell, or hear, assuming some of this gets declassified when the satellite shot completes. We remain impressed with how much effort the Navy is putting into this show. All those reporters in Virginia are probably oblivious to what is happening right under their noses, or frustrated they can't see it.

We call it a show because in many ways, that is what it is, hopefully a drama and not a sitcom. The AP is reporting the first window will open up Wednesday night.

An attempt to blast a crippled U.S. spy satellite out of the sky using a Navy heat-seeking missile — possibly on Wednesday night — would be the first real-world use of this piece of the Pentagon's missile defense network. But that is not the mission for which it was intended.

The attempted shootdown, already approved by President Bush, is seen by some as blurring the lines between defending against a weapon like a long-range missile and targeting satellites in orbit.

The three-stage Navy missile, designated the SM-3, has chalked up a high rate of success in a series of tests since 2002 — in each case targeting a short- or medium-range ballistic missile, never a satellite. A hurry-up program to adapt the missile for this anti-satellite mission was completed in a matter of weeks; Navy officials say the changes will be reversed once this satellite is down.

The government issued notices to aviators and mariners to remain clear of a section of the Pacific beginning at 10:30 p.m. EST Wednesday, indicating the first window of opportunity to launch an SM-3 missile from a Navy cruiser, the USS Lake Erie, in an effort to hit the wayward satellite.

There is still good coverage over at the Danger Room, but with Dr. Lewis having a cow over the little things of the event, it has moved away a bit from the defense aspects and more into the politics. He talks about "administration" a bit too much for me, because as Chap pointed out on Dr. Lewis's blog, most of the bureaucracy involved in this test will be there in the next administration regardless of who it is. For those who are looking for more technical detail, the Milcom Monitoring Post has great coverage up. I concur with the assessment of Larry and John, the NOTAM will keep going until they either have a successful hit or until they have expended the three converted missiles, whichever comes first.

While the open source models are interesting, I'm not sure how accurate they will be for predicting the debris field. The models I have seen tend to focus on impact more so than anything. I'm not sure I buy into those models, it seems like a lot of this depends upon how accurate the model for breakup of the satellite is more than anything, and I don't think anyone but the DoD is going to be able to model that, because no one but the DoD actually has the technical details of the satellite. Too many armchair physics teachers on this one, not enough objective analysis. Depending upon the break points of the satellite on impact, this could be over quickly or be one huge mess, and have nothing whatsoever to do with the success or failure of the SM-3.

The media has confirmed what we speculated earlier, that the USS Lake Erie (CG 70) will be the shooter. That was an easy guess, Capt. Randall Hendrickson has commanded four previous AEGIS BMD tests and is the most experienced Captain in the Navy in the ballistic missile defense mission. Could a one shot success could change his career? We think it will be interesting to see.

Finally, some people were shocked, as in I am some sort of conspiracy guy to even suggest that US 193 uses a RTG power source after the DoD denied it. I'm in good company on that theory, a number of scientists aren't buying the "hydrazine only" story line either, and the number of military folks involved in this shoot down on a world wide level also tend to promote the theory this isn't some casual weapons test. The Navy has lined up this shot in a way to insure it almost certainly crashes into water. I'm not trying to wave a conspiracy flag here, all I am saying is 1) this is a weapons test and 2) there is something on that satellite the DoD considers very secret and wants to keep it that way. I don't see that as a conspiracy, simply the application of the facts as they have been presented, and withheld.

As far as I'm concerned, shoot it down, .... best with one missile.

John Pike said it 'probably isn't RTG so I'm probably wrong, he's the expert and I'm the observer. With that said, I honestly don't know what to make of Norman Polmar's strange argument for AEGIS BMD. I imagine the black helicopters are scrambling after that post.

The thoughtful argument against RTG is that the DoD would have had to file an EPA report to use RTG. Uh, yea, ok, whatever. Spy satellites can get exceptions to all kinds of rules, and while people probably don't like it, that is how it is. The best argument is that sunlight can effect RTG as a power source. That I buy, but the argument is counter to history considering so many other orbital satellites have used RTG, particularly the Soviets (as Norman points out).

The other possibility, an argument popular among the crew, is that the radar system is in fact the primary target. Without going into technicals, the materials that contribute to that radar could possibly stand reentry, and allowing it to fall into the wrong hands could create a major technology loss. I'm not sure I buy that argument, but only because I'm not sure I understand it.

Either way, we are done speculating about the satellite, nothing left to do at this point but have the popcorn ready for Wednesday night and hope for a one shot kill. To the sailors around the world putting this together, God bless and good luck.