Observing the Massive Naval Preparations in the Pacific

There are some major military movements taking place in Asia right now, and it should come to no surprise to anyone that the US Navy is about to have more ships at sea in the Pacific than any other time in recent memory, including all 4 available Carrier Strike Groups. In our observations of the Tibet blogger feeds, or even more interesting the hackers in Tibet feeding information out in some very tech savvy clever ways through the Chinese firewalls, there are a lot of reports that a major Chinese Army is moving down G318, the main road into Tibet from Sichuan province.

This comes the week before the much anticipated major vote in Taiwan on Saturday, and while it is unclear if we should expect major fireworks from that election, the combination of Taiwan and anything politics has never really been anything short of combustible. What is clear however is the US Navy will be on call.

Two U.S. aircraft carriers, including the USS Kitty Hawk, have been sent to the Taiwan region for training exercises during this weekend's Taiwanese election, a U.S. defense official said on Wednesday.

The two warships were "responsibly positioned" in the Pacific Ocean somewhere east of Taiwan and would remain in place through Saturday's presidential election and referendum on U.N. membership, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Basically every major naval platform you would want at sea in the 7th Fleet theater is at sea right now, and there are reserves on the way, and if you come across the Pacific back to the west coast, there will be even more major reserve forces at sea, and I'm not even going to count the Peleliu ESG. The Navy has intentionally not identified by name forward deployed naval forces at sea, so we will list them as 1 CV, 1 LHD, 1 LPD, 1 LSD, 2 CGs, and at least 5 DDGs currently operating at sea. We have also counted at least 5 submarines, including the USS Ohio (SSGN 726) currently on deployment in the Pacific. Additionally the following organized strike groups are at sea.

Nimitz Carrier Strike Group

USS Nimitz (CVN 68)
USS Princeton (CG 59)
USS John Paul Jones (DDG 53)
USS Higgins (DDG 76)
USS Chafee (DDG 90)

Recently deployed near Pearl Harbor:

Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group

USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72)
USS Mobile Bay (CG 53)
USS Russell (DDG 59)
USS Shoup (DDG 86)
USS Momsen (DDG 92)
USS Curts (FFG 38)

Additionally the Reagan CSG is at sea and will be conducting Composite Unit Training Exercise (COMPTUEX) and a Joint Task Force Exercise (JTFEX) off the coast of Southern California March 18 to April 7 and April 11-18.

Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group

USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76)
USS Chancellorsville (CG 62)
USS Decatur (DDG 73)
USS Howard (DDG 83)
USS Gridley (DDG 101)
USS Thach (FFG 43)

We are aware of other ships that are or will be at sea during this time period, but such operations are commonplace and not quite as organized as what we are seeing from the 4 CSGs in the Pacific.

We have no expectations of a war breaking out over the weekend or any such drama, and China certainly has its hands full trying to put on a public smile with the Olympic Games approaching. However, it is during this public happy time that those who feel oppressed by China are speaking out. While Tibet is clearly a mess, and if you follow that blogger feed you will come across some of the most gruesome stories and pictures China doesn't want you to hear about, one question is will anyone in the world actually stand up to China for Tibet?

Unlikely, in the world we live in money talks even if people die, and that is just how it is. The big question that has our interest though isn't what happens in Tibet, we expect the crackdown to come and the result to be a demonstration of raw, brutal power and blatant murder, a reminder to those who too easily forget what Communists really are. No, the big question is what does Taiwan do this weekend. The conditions, particularly with the latest outbreak of violence in Tibet and news the CHICOM Army is moving south in a massive column is bringing the conditions into play for a perfect storm.

The last time there was a storm in the Pacific with this many US Navy ships at sea, Adm Keating had to explain why the families of the Kitty Hawk CSG got snubbed for Thanksgiving. As events unfold, lets hope things stay in that realm of manageable incidents, because if things go badly and the CHICOMs panic, which they have had a tendency to do lately over the little things, a port snub could be a best case scenario.