Sounds Like 2004 All Over Again in Taiwan

We are living in interesting times of major change in the world. Many things can happen, but history tells us one of the things that tends to happen is conventional wisdom tends to get it wrong. We have already observed this as a constant pattern in our nations current election cycle, but as the New York Times is reporting, conventional wisdom can get it wrong anywhere in the world.

China’s suppression of protests in Tibet and missteps by the opposition Nationalist Party have made the Taiwanese presidential election on Saturday an unexpectedly close race. What once seemed to be an insuperable lead for the Nationalist candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, has narrowed considerably, politicians and political analysts said.

A narrow victory for Mr. Ma would give him a weaker mandate for his goal of closer economic relations with mainland China. An actual defeat for Mr. Ma, now a possibility although not yet the most likely outcome, would be a serious setback for Beijing officials, who have cultivated relations with the Nationalist Party, or Kuomintang, over the past four years.

This is the simplistic explanation. If the Nationalist Party wins, China will be happy and there are no worries, and at the same time the vote for independence will likely not pass. However, if the Democratic Progressive Party wins, it will be seen as a slap in the face to China, and it may also effect the vote for independence. The DPP is currently in the government, and they are busy talking to the people.

“What has happened in Tibet in the past three decades, and what is going on now, is a warning to us,” said Shieh Jhy-wey, the minister of information. “We don’t want to have the same fate as Tibet.”

Chen Ming-tong, the chairman of the Mainland Affairs Council, the government ministry responsible for relations with the mainland, called Thursday for the international community to put more pressure on China to begin a dialogue with the Dalai Lama, the leader of Tibet’s government in exile.

The nightmare situation for the Nationalists would be a repeat of the 2004 presidential election. Lien Chan, the Nationalist candidate, went into the final 10 days of the campaign with a commanding lead in the polls, only to lose by a quarter of a percentage point.

As we said last night, the combination of Taiwan and politics has always been a combustible mixture that can explode in any number of directions at the same time. This may turn out to be an interesting weekend in the Pacific after all. This turn in events helps explain why China is already setting the stage for their next Kitty Hawk port snub.

For the record, if the DPP wins, we predict China will act very immature, like a spoiled child. It is their pattern of behavior when things don't go the way they want them to go.