Global Fleet Stations Forever

When we observe the Navy discussing Global Fleet Stations, the mission objective profile is one of a mission without end. Instead the mission will transition from one phase to another, and the next phase of both the the Caribbean region Global Fleet Station and the African Partnership Station in the Gulf of Guinea region. Admiral Stevenson discussed the next 4th Fleet region Global Fleet Station (PDF) at the last blogger round table discussion.

This year we have a Global Fleet Station. That's a diving platform. That deploys this summer and will go into a majority of the Caribbean countries and do an awful lot of diving, training, port security, harbor protection type of things. And the following year, even later on in the fall, we may get Swift back, before her contract with the Navy ends, to continue some of the things that we started last year.

The diving ship being deployed is the USNS Grasp (T-ARS 51), an interesting choice. As a Global Fleet Station ship we observe the ship doesn't bring a lot of berthing, raising the question whether another ship will also be involved (probably via charter). Still, we see the Navy leveraging the MSC in this role as very wise, a way to sustain engagement with regional partners in a way that is clearly relevant to those regional nations.

The next phase in the Gulf Of Guinea will also look different this summer. While I haven't seen confirmation anywhere else yet, back in March Zachary M. Peterson reported for Inside The Navy (subscription only) that plans are already in motion for sustaining the African Partnership Station as well.

A Coast Guard cutter, Dallas, will deploy to the Gulf of Guinea this summer and plans for a French ship to steam in the region with embedded U.S. Navy training teams are also under way, he noted.

“APS doesn’t end when Fort McHenry [and Swift] go home,” Nowell argued. Adm. Mark Fitzgerald, commander of Naval Forces Europe, has said that the Navy is “here to stay” in West African waters, but details of how engagements in the region will fold into the nascent U.S. Africa Command remain to be determined, the captain said.

Zachary Peterson had another article on Tuesday in Inside The Navy that hit on the subject again. It was picked up in the CHINFO Clips.

This fall, the sea service plans to further efforts to build naval and coast guard capacity in coastal Western African countries by deploying a “variety of delivery platforms” ranging from frigates to destroyers and P-3 maritime surveillance aircraft detachments to the region, Capt. John Nowell, commodore of Task Force 365 (focused on West and Central Africa) and Destroyer Squadron Six Zero, said in a telephone interview April 21.

“Next year we expect another amphibious ship, probably the Nashville (LPD-13), to continue to conduct a similar mission to what we did with Fort McHenry (LSD-43),” Nowell said...

Guess that answers the questions regarding the USS Nashville (LPD 13) sale to India. The article goes on to note that blue water naval forces aren't always the best tools for the region though.

The APS effort incorporates a wide variety of projects in the region and is not specifically tied to gray-hull ships, Rear Adm. Anthony Kurta, director of policy, resources and strategy for Naval Forces Europe, said in a telephone interview April 23.

“There will be activity [in West Africa] under the APS banner for the next sixto-eight months,” Kurta noted.

These activities include the deployment of the Coast Guard cutter Dallas (WHEC-716) this summer and ongoing deployments of training teams throughout the region.

Phase 1 is an Amphibious Ship and a HSV. while phase 2 includes a MSC vessel and a Coast Guard Cutter. Admiral Clarke used to talk about using existing platforms and capabilities in new and innovative ways, we observe Global Fleet Stations and the resources being committed fits that description well. While the capabilities utilized for Global Fleet Stations are not new, the approach is innovative, a trend in ideas for the maritime domain that reflects a 4GW world.

Riverine Squadron 3 Deploys to Iraq

Riverine Squadron 3 represents the third riverine unit to deploy to Iraq since last March. It is good to see this capability back in the Navy.

The Navy stopped active-duty inland and coastal patrols after Vietnam. Last year, they reclaimed the mission, taking over river patrols for an overburdened Marine Corps.

On Sunday, about 150 sailors from Riverine Squadron 3 left for Iraq - the third unit to deploy since last March. Jordan left the command Monday in a ceremony at Little Creek Naval Amphibious Base.

Jordan started the group a little more than two years ago with a few dozen sailors and borrowed office space. Thirteen months into the mission, the squadrons have conducted 800 combat operations with more than 200 shoreline sweeps, discovering nearly 100 weapons caches. They have worked with Iraqi forces, with the goal of training them to take over the patrols in western al Anbar province.

Then the article reminds us that the Navy still has some work to do to improve this capability.

The Cold War strategy of warships battling in deep seas needs to be supplemented by a force than can secure harbors, ports and rivers, Tillotson said. “We need to be there,” he said.

Petty Officer 3rd Class David Smith came straight from advanced training into the first squadron. Smith, an engine mechanic, said the new squadron had to come to terms with worn equipment and a new mission.

We like that the Navy has taken a slow approach to reestablishment for riverine. It has to be built, and there should be deployments before major investment to get a feel for what is needed, and desired, to enhance the capability. However, the Navy should start increasing a budget commitment beginning in FY10 or FY11 if the Navy is serious about the riverine capability. Considering both years will likely be tight budgets, the discussion needs to begin now in Congress. Clearly riverine isn't expensive compared to building warships, but in tight budgets even small sums get hard to come by.

We believe the future riverine forces will require integration with the blue water forces, specifically we believe LPD-17 well deck deployment capability will be very important. It is noteworthy Nigeria is of the most strategically important energy sources for the United States, and is also a River Delta. With the insurgency bubbling in that region, which is also the top region in the world regarding piracy, the Navy needs to be looking sooner rather than later for budget investments in riverine forces, because it needs to be available when called upon.

5th Fleet Focus: Restless Nights Approaching

I get the impression something like this can give certain people a restless nights sleep. While the 5th Fleet will be losing a CSG soon, they are getting an interesting upgrade as well.

KINGS BAY, Ga. (April 26, 2024) The guided-missile submarine USS Florida (SSGN 728) departs Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay for its first operational deployment after undergoing conversion from a ballistic-missile capable submarine (SSBN) to a guided-missile submarine (SSGN). The normal patrol for an SSBN is about three months; however, as an SSGN, Florida will be deployed for approximately 12 months. Florida departed with her blue crew, led by Capt. William Traub. The blue crew will rotate duties every three months with the gold crew, led by Capt. John Litherland, during the deployment. The use of two crews allows Florida to have a greater forward presence and the conversion from ballistic missiles to guided missiles allows for greater payload capacity and mission flexibility. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Kimberly Clifford (Released)

Click image for link and Hi-res.

Clearly this is the stuff conspiracy theories are made of. One point though, with DDS the SSGN loses some Tomahawk capability, so if I was estimating, if she has a full load figure between 98 and 112 cruise missiles. When the Navy opened up the USS Ohio (SSGN 726) to the press earlier this year, it was implied the submarine had 105 cruise missiles aboard.

Somalian Pirates Back To Sea

We mentioned on Saturday to expect the pirate activity to pick up quickly, as they usually do after ransoms are paid. Be wary of speedboats if your in the Gulf of Aden. There were two new incidents on Monday, and it looks like the Italian Navy assisted in the first incident.

The Italian Navy appears to have prevented another pirate attack on commercial shipping in the Gulf of Aden over the weekend, after the 2004-built, 32,300-dwt bulk carrier Africa Ibis called for help in warding off a group of five speedboats which were approaching the vessel.

The Italian ship was the ITS Commandante Borsini (P491). The second incident off Somalia involved a South Korean bulk carrier.

In another incident in the Gulf of Aden, off Somalia, a South Korean bulk carrier came under pirate attack on Monday at about 0940 GMT, he said.

Choong said pirates believed to be from Somalia attacked the ship for about 40 minutes with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades.

"The ship was hit by a rocket and bullets," he said, adding that the captain took evasive measures "to prevent the 10 pirates in two speed boats from boarding," he said.

Choong said the ship was still sailing to its destination in Europe despite the damage suffered in the attack.

In observing the piracy off the Horn of Africa, it is pretty clear how little respect the pirates have for the presence of coalition forces. Given pirates are running around in speedboats with RPGs and Machine Guns, they also have a fairly sophisticated intelligence network too, because it is worth noting how often they attack 'close' to coalition ships, but never close enough to be hunted at sea until after they hijack a ship.

They will attack again over the next few days. One thing we are observing is the Somalia pirates appear to be going after larger ships lately. They haven't had success yet, but they are shooting up a number of large commercial ships on a weekly basis. Insurance rates will soon be going up, which means shipping costs will increase, which means we will soon be paying even more for the stuff we import. If the pirates strike at or even steal a tanker with fuel onboard, expect gas prices to jump big like they did when the pirates attacked the empty Japanese tanker.

4th Fleet Green Water Strategy

Today, I observed the winds of change. In today's blogger roundtable, SteelJaw Scribe was unable to attend, but he had submitted his questions and it was read anyway. The response captured the various angles of 4th Fleets Green Water Strategy.

Q: "With the decline of the supporting infrastructure in the region and the closure of naval stations Roosevelt Roads and Rodman, et cetera, how sustainable do you see the Fourth Fleet's small unit presence in the AOR, particularly outside the Caribbean?"

A: I would think that if you do an analysis of the countries -- I mean, 15 years ago, there wasn't any democracies in Central or South America, period. And this year, if you look, you'll see just about all democracies with the exception of one and a couple that are very, very far left. But that is the good thing. And the good thing about that is that they welcome the United States into their ports, and so the at-sea sustainment really isn't an issue.

However, if you look at, you know, the capabilities that the United States have -- has if you have have a big-deck amphibious ship, if you have aircraft carriers, if you have high-speed vessels, then essentially you can kind of have your own afloat staging base, where, you know, acting as mother ships and can refuel ships, and we can maintain our presence down here, and we can maintain our cooperation through exercises and training venues and what have you.

So I think it's dependent, and I think that's the huge value that our Navy brings in some of its core competencies, which is its forward presence and the ability to sail anywhere, any time and sustain itself.

(PDF Transcript)

Our initial impressions of the Navy standing up 4th Fleet was one in the context of leadership and strategy. After participating in today's blogger roundtable on the subject, I think our instincts on this was right. Rear Adm. James Stevenson is very impressive, after speaking with him I admit a bit of frustration that he is retiring, and hope that in his next profession he finds a useful medium to articulate his strategic ideas regarding leveraging the Sea as Base as clearly as he did today. The strategic vision for naval Sea Basing he discussed during the roundtable regarding operations for the 4th Fleet could have been ripped right from the content of this blog, and there were a few times that I had a huge cheesy grin on my face listening to him speak.

Based on our observations of previous deployments for SOUTHCOM, the leadership style and priorities of Adm. Stavridis, and the appointment of Rear Adm. Joseph Kernan, we believe 4th Fleet is about to execute a very unique Green Water Strategy that may serve as a model for peacetime strategy in the 21st Century. Adm. Stevenson continuously highlighted the value of amphibious forces during today's roundtable, but when speaking of them in an operational context outlined the strategic value they bring to peacetime operations. With access to regional ports, with good relations with many regional neighbors, 4th Fleet is taking an engagement approach across the spectrum ranging from security cooperation to proactive humanitarian impact while it deals with the low end naval requirements of dealing with illicit trafficking.

The engagement by the US Navy to the 4th Fleet AOR is well known historically for response to natural disasters. Whether hurricanes, mudslides, earthquakes, forest fires, or flooding; the 4th fleet AOR brings a range of peacemaking challenges to the Navy to be responsive in peacetime. The value of amphibious forces for meeting these challenges was continuously articulated by Adm. Stevenson.

While this sounds good, we foresee some major challenges in execution here. We do not believe the Navy will be able to sustain forward deployed amphibious ships to 4th Fleet, there simply aren't enough amphibious ships to do that. We would also note that every metric Adm. Stevenson listed regarding why he likes amphibious ships is virtually every metric the Littoral Combat Ship doesn't offer for peacetime missions in the future. In that context, we see the 4th fleet strategy having well defined ends and ways but lacking the means either presently or in the future to execute strategy. It will be interesting to observe how the Navy addresses that issue, or even recognizes it as an issue before it is too late to do something about it.

During the roundtable the only issue discussed that really bothered me is that 4th Fleet is commanded by a 2-star billet, not a 3-star billet like other fleets. I missed this during the announcement, and I think that decision sends the wrong message. It is something that should be addressed, although I think there may be a Congressional requirement for that. It doesn't make sense to elevate a peacetime strategy to equal levels of wartime strategy as stated in 21st Century Seapower, stand up a new fleet with the peacetime strategic purpose in mind, and then fall short in equality for leadership billets. Consistency is important, and when there is evidence of a lack of consistency in regards to maritime strategy, in serves only to weaken the strategy.

4th Fleet represents the first major decision for CNO Roughead, as all other major initiatives have been inherited. While we think the decision to go 2-star is one in need of correction, we see the establishment of 4th Fleet as positive for the Navy. We believe the strategic vision 4th Fleet will execute for peacetime sustained presence and engagement will be quite different than what is traditionally associated with the deployment of naval forces to other regions, and will be more evident compared to the token SOUTHCOM deployments of the past. We look forward to observing the strategy for leveraging maritime forces in what is primarily a green water operational theater, and believe we will get a good early peek into the strategic vision for 4th Fleet this summer as hurricane season approaches.

There was some other news from the roundtable, including Unitas Gold (50) next year being hosted off the Jacksonville coast, the next Global Fleet Station to South America using a diving ship as a platform, and more information regarding the Kearsarge/Boxer deployments to South America. We got the impression the Kearsarge deployment will be timed with Hurricane season in mind prepared to respond to any potential disaster zones. In all it was an interesting conversation.

Tuesday Photo Album: LCS-2 Independence

More photography of LCS-2 being put in the water. If looks alone can sell shipbuilding, the Navy has a winner for public consumption.

Austal has more pictures available on their website here.

Blogger Roundtable Topic: 4th Fleet

I plan on participating in this today.

Navy Rear Adm. James Stevenson, commander of the U.S. Naval Forces Southern Command, will discuss the reestablishment of the U.S. 4th Fleet. 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

You can always listen live at 1:00pm EST here. I have 2 questions ready to go, but if you think you have a really good question I should consider asking instead, leave it in the comments.

This topic should fit in well with this weeks theme of maritime peacemaking strategy.

US Forces Take The Offensive

We observed the other day the Navy had moved two aircraft carriers into the Middle East region. We first noticed something was a bit off when the daily air power updates continued to include Naval aviation sorties. Usually during a carrier rotation, the administration insures that as one carrier enters the region the other is on the way out, but not this time.

There were plenty of other press reports that gave the impression offensive operations in both theaters were about to be sustained for a short period, and we are observing news reports of these expected offensive operations today.

Navy Times has the story from Afghanistan.

Marines in helicopters and Humvees flooded into a Taliban-held town in southern Afghanistan’s most violent province early Tuesday in the first major American operation in the region in years.

The article goes on to highlight that the Taliban had been expecting the Marines. The fighting in this region is likely to be sustained as the Marines make their presence known. The 24th MEU represents the first surge to the Afghanistan region by the USMC. In watching the activities of the 24th MEU, there appears to be a 24th MEU official blog that may be worth observing for news.

Additionally we observe the continued operations in the Sadr City district of Baghdad. Reports on the ground are claiming that a lot of Iranian sourced materials are being captured in the fighting. As always, we default to better sources for understanding the tactical aspects of the events taking place in both theaters. Unfortunately the Iranian weapon issue will remain political, and as such, unproductive for the troops dealing with the problem.

We do not know how long the Navy will keep 2 carriers in the region, although we observe it unlikely the Harry S Truman Carrier Strike Group will begin to return home until one of the offensive operations is completed.

1000 Ship Navy Reality Means Its Time For 30 Agency Navy Theory

Courtesy of Radio Australia, it appears someone finally asked China to put the rapidly growing PLA Navy to good use.

There's been a call for China and other Asian nations that fish off the coast of Somalia to take part in a proposed United Nations-backed force to combat maritime piracy.

Spain's prime minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, says the area off the African coast has become especially dangerous.

The headline of the article is Asian nations urged to join anti-piracy taskforce, which we are pleased to see because this is exactly what we called for on this blog last week. Coalition approaches to problem solving as reflected in the Navy's maritime strategy is without question the smart way to approach international security problems.

This is what Admiral Morgan was talking about when he floated the idea of the 1000 Ship Navy. If the international community can surge a global maritime partnership to address the pirate problems off Somalia, it would be a positive step forward towards using international institutions for promoting maritime peace in the 21st century.

And it is at this point the Navy arrives at step two. Our theme this week is peacemaking strategy, and we want to offer something up for discussion. If we assume for a moment that the Asian powers join with the US and European powers to provide security to the maritime domain off northeast Africa, we must recognize the 1000 Ship Navy will only be a solution to address the symptoms, not the problems.

For problem solving on the ground in places like Somalia in the 21st Century, we believe the complimentary capability that needs discussion is the 30 Agency Navy. We believe this is a direction the Marines are heading as part of their total capability.

While the current wars prevent the US from building this capability today, we note the wars are also part of the learning curve for it. We see the 30 Agency Navy an an international coalition much like the 1000 Ship Navy is, but as the engagement from the sea to the ground piece directed to troubled regions. If the Navy believes the 1000 Ship Navy could actually materialize, they need to get busy on that 30 Agency Navy concept, because its need will be very evident quickly if the 1000 Ship Navy is successful bringing security to a lawless region.

Thoughts on Navy Approved Messages

The Navy's website has put up a web page regarding the PBS documentary special "Carrier." The Navy has recruited a panel for discussion following each episode to get reactions. The panel consists of:

RDML Ted Branch,
former commanding officer of
USS Nimitz (CVN 68)

MCPON Joe Campa Jr,
Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy

YN1 (SW/AW) Jennifer Brown,
carrier tours include USS John C. Stennis
(CVN 74) and USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75)

MM3 (SW) Ernest Ackerman,
served five years aboard USS Boxer (LHD 4)

We will not be giving a review of the series until it is completed, however for those fans the Navy's web page does offer some commentary. My take on the commentary is this, once you watch the Navy production, you will have a ton of appreciation what PBS has done with the series. That web page is embarrassing, a marketing blunder at a time they have a good thing going. If they are smart, it would quietly disappear. It's like comparing the Navy official website with Destroyermen. While I'm sure the Navy website gets a lot of hits, I'd bet money the number of daily visits on Destroyermen has the Navy's attention.

On the subject of Destroyermen let me suggest something to those who play overseer. That last post was one of the best yet, good enough to get you a headline in fact, it makes no sense at all the Navy would ask that post to be taken down. Here is my advice, quit worrying about the messages you don't approve and start worrying about the ones you do, because that stupid shit someone published on the "Carrier" series on the official web page is washing away the good the Navy is earning with the Carrier series on PBS. The problem isn't the unofficial, non sanctioned messages, the problem including the OPSEC issues that allow us to track your fleet over cup of morning brew are so obviously what is approved. The Navy as a whole needs an education on the information age.

LCS-2 Independence Moves 300 Yards, Yawn...

Some are calling it a launch, but all they did was back LCS-2 out of its bat cave and put it in a drydock. Not a real launch, at least not like we will see at the christening. You can watch a video of the LCS-2 not launching here, and get the story that isn't a story here. Basically they had issues getting the ship into the water, but that isn't uncommon. Picture of LCS-2 below.


Kind of hard to get excited about a ship moving about 300 yards to a drydock, and we guess Austal thinks so too. They still have their little flash "Independence Day" (which mentions yesterdays date) graphic up, but they forgot to update their news section with the launch. Must be a case of the Mondays.

Submarine Analysis Worth Watching

We have previously covered Martin Sieff's review of Chinese submarines. As some of the commenter's noted, there were some technicals in his previous analysis we had some issues with, but living up to the high standards and knowledge of the commenter's of this blog is a challenge for anyone in the media (we proudly fall short often). In all, we thought the three part series was interesting and a useful contribution to the debate.

We attempt to keep the discussion of China as level as possible. Our point of view regarding what China represents in the 21st century is rooted in history. We observe that there are very few major economic powers that ascended to the top without going to war, either externally or internally. We observe that periods of extended peace are usually coupled with massive military buildups world wide. We also observe that the lack of transparency in China's military spending strikes to the heart of concerns to nations in competition with China, both regionally and globally, and is a primary driver of increased military spending among economic powers in the Pacific, not to mention major military investments in the US. We see no value in a future war with China, and subscribe to many of the observations of Thomas PM Barnett regarding the potential China represents (See his latest articles in Good Magazine here, here, here, here, here, and here).

Martin Sieff's latest article drives home an important point, although he hits it from the China angle, and something we believe to be an emerging hard military power challenge to the United States.

Jean cited Richard Dorn of AMI International as estimating that currently there are about 377 diesel subs in service around the world operated by 39 nations. Jean also noted a trend we have tracked over the past two years in these columns of Russia's remarkable success in selling Kilo-class subs. China was already an enthusiastic customer. Now Venezuela and Indonesia have ordered them, too. Jean tallies 30 sales of Russian Kilos around the world so far with five more going to Venezuela by 2020, six to Indonesia, and China having bought in all 12 of them.

Jean also notes that China is already operating 10 Song-class diesel submarines. In November 2006 a Song-class submarine, as we have previously noted in these columns, surfaced within sight of the U.S. aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk. Had that occurred during wartime, the Kitty Hawk would have been dead.

The transparency issue we often discuss comes into play in the second paragraph. To highlight the problem, the following graph (pages CRS-9 and CRS-10 of latest report) used in a recent Ronald ORourke report on the modernization of the PLAN. The table is sourced to Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, and previous editions.


The report has the following notes regarding this graph, which hits directly to our point regarding transparency.

Table 1 shows actual and projected commissionings of Chinese submarines by class since 1995, when China took delivery of its first two Kilo-class boats. As shown in Table 1, observers expected China to have a total of 28 Shang, Kilo, Yuan, and Song class submarines in commission by the end of 2007.

Although Table 1 shows a total of 13 Song-class boats, DOD states (PDF) that China has a total of 10 Song-class boats. DOD also states that “The YUAN-class SS is now assessed to be in full production and will be ready for service by 2010.”

Photos published on the Internet have suggested to some observers that China has launched and perhaps completed (if perhaps not officially placed into service) higher numbers of Jin-, Shang-, and Yuan-class submarines than shown in Table 1.

We note that one of the debates includes the number of Song class submarines. As the CRS report highlights, the DoD lists only 10 Song class submarines in its 2008 report. However, we also note that in March 2006 testimony by Vice Admiral Albert H. Konetzni, Jr. USN (Retired) it was claimed there were 13 Song class submarines, the same number listed by Janes. VA Konetzni's resume leads that paper, and he appears to be very qualified to have access to the real number, where a public DoD report may not have that access.

New nuclear missile and attack boats are entering their fleet sooner than originally predicted.

• 1 JIN SSBN (on sea trials) - carries JL-2 missile that is capable of hitting the continental U.S. from the East China Sea.
• 2 Shang Class SSNs (One finishing and another starting Sea Trials).
• These complement the older XIA SSBN and 4 HAN SSNs.
• And they are building more (Looking at 6 SSBNs and 12 SSNs by 2020).

Equally alarming, they have bought and built the largest modern diesel fleet in the world. They include three classes which are among the most quiet and capable diesel submarines at sea today.

• 1 New YUAN SSK (a surprise to us until in the water).
• 13 SONGs SSKs (avg 2 per/year)
• 9 Russia KILO SSKs (3 more on order)

These classes are bolstered by 9 semi-modern MINGs (90s vintage) as well as a combination of 23 older MINGs and Romeos At this pace, China will have 75 modern submarines by 2020.

Note the comment regarding the Yuan, it is very telling. I've seen a number of photo's of those older MINGs and Romeos, and while things may have been different in March of 2006, I think the military value (or operational probability) of those submarines is very close to nil in 2008.

The point is we don't have accurate numbers of conventional submarines produced by China, and there is a serious problem with that being a hidden number. The lack of transparency in China means several things, among them if the DoD doesn't have an accurate count of conventional submarines being built, then how do we know if China exports submarines to another nation that lacks transparency? While Iran may parade their military hardware in front of the camera's, not every nation follows that silly example.

For example, the Song class submarine has often been discussed as an excellent platform for minelaying. Does anyone else think it might be very important information if China sold some Song class submarines to North Korea? What if North Korea then sells them to someone else? While a lot of old cold warriors still hold a high degree of skepticism towards Russia, it is noteworthy that Russia has a great deal of transparency in their military expenditures, about the same level as the west.

We note that it is largely because of transparency we know about Russian conventional submarine exports. The data used by Richard Dorn of AMI International to track conventional submarine sales worldwide isn't secret, all you have to do is be follow Russian, French, and German exports... and hope China isn't selling in that market, yet.

We look forward to future articles in this series, and observe the next article in the series is named "Chinese neo-wolf pack tactics against U.S. carrier groups." Hmm, sounds interesting and a bit familiar. We look forward to seeing his citations regarding his research, which we might suggest can be found here and here.

Boeing Executes Airbus Model For India

We loved how Boeing went straight for the Patriotism argument when they lost the KC-X contract. The political argument was that Northrop Grumman was outsourcing jobs to Europe through Airbus.

We honestly have no opinion regarding the outsourcing subject, we simply observe that is how globalization works, and yes globalization applies to all industries including the defense industry. We also observe that if a company is going to claim work done overseas is the problem, and shoot for the patriotism political argument to keep jobs in America, they should execute that strategy consistently. Clearly Boeing recognizes Northrop Grumman's plan was smart, because this is the economic news out of India today.

US civil and defence aerospace major Boeing has decided to outsource two critical components of the F-18 Super Hornet combat aircraft to India and the order for one of them could go to the Tatas.

Lt Gen Jeffrey B. Kohler, Boeing vice president for international strategy, told the India Strategic defence magazine that as a “responsible world player in aerospace, Boeing wanted a long-term, trusted partnership with India and that the orders for these two components are being placed now irrespective of whether or not the company wins the tender for 126 Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA).”

Both the components are made with sophisticated composite materials, appropriate technology for which will be transferred to India. Details are to be given later.

We observe this strategy for winning the MRCA is very similar to the strategy that Airbus had in regards to the tanker deal. The idea is Boeing will build the airframe here in the US, and the component technologies will be built in India. That is virtually the same model Northrop Grumman is using for the KC-X tanker deal.

It raises the question, how can Boeing legitimately protest the KC-X model if in fact they are doing exactly the same thing in regards to the MRCA contract for India? Seems to us their biggest complaint isn't how Airbus set up the division of labor for the KC-X contract, rather that Boeing lost the contract period. While we understand there are other factors, this specific point which is the one that resonated so clearly in the political argument now appears less legitimate, otherwise Boeing wouldn't be doing exactly the same thing with the MRCA contract in India.

Either way, one might ask the question, are the components to be built also for future US Navy F/A-18E/Fs? The question is legitimate, because the Navy is planning on buying more Super Hornets starting in FY2010, and one might wonder if Boeing is shifting existing jobs to India, rather than doing what Airbus/Northrop Grumman is doing, which is essentially a division of labor for new jobs.

Carrier on PBS Tonight

I have no idea what to expect from this show, but I'll be watching. I haven't read any reviews, only saw the commercial a few times, and have only see the hype as per the comments...

But I did read this LA Times article, and this stuck out.

The unusually candid and personal portrait of life aboard the Nimitz prompted Adm. Gary Roughead, the United States Navy’s chief of naval operations, to e-mail approximately 1,000 senior active, reserve and retired officers, and civilian executives, earlier this month to explain why the Navy agreed to the series, and to allay fears about the program’s potential negative impact.

“We did not get a Navy ‘commercial’ in the traditional sense,” wrote Roughead, a member of the Joints Chiefs of Staff and the senior military officer in the Department of the Navy. ” ‘Carrier’ is very different from the hardware documentaries we have supported in the past. This program focuses on our people and the reality-TV approach gives it a sense of authenticity and credibility. Since we did not monitor the individual interviews and ongoing production, the program contains material that does not always and fully represent the discipline, values and mission of the U.S. Navy.”

Sounds interesting to me.

Another Amphib For the Humanitarian Mission

The next humanitarian mission to SOUTHCOM appears to be in final preparations, and once again we see an amphibious ship deploying without Marines. This time the Navy is sending a LHD.

Sailors and Marines aboard USS Boxer (LHD 4) began loading more than $139,000 of "Project Handclasp" supplies April 15 in preparation for their humanitarian and civic assistance mission to Central and South America this summer. Established by the U.S. Navy in 1962, Project Handclasp's primary mission is collecting and coordinating the distribution of humanitarian, educational and goodwill materials to those in need. The program uses empty cargo space on U.S. Navy ships to transport the materials to Navy ports of call.

Materials to supplement basic necessities like food, clothing and hygienic items are donated by America's private sector at no-cost to the government and personally distributed by Sailors and Marines to those in need overseas. Lt. Cmdr. Matt Brown, U.S. Southern Command's (USSOUTHCOM) Project Handclasp desk officer, said the upcoming deployment will continue the United States' successful policy of providing humanitarian assistance to our neighbors in Central and South America.

Either there is more to the deployment than the reported humanitarian focus, or it is time to have a debate regarding what ship types to deploy for humanitarian deployments. The LHD is the second largest conventionally powered combat ship in the US Navy inventory behind the Kitty Hawk, the third largest conventionally powered aviation platform in the world. If we believe this is solely a humanitarian mission, this appears to be the most expensive way to conduct a peacetime proactive humanitarian deployment. Using a LHD solely for a proactive humanitarian deployment is like flying a B-1 bomber to Guam for the sole purpose of delivering mail.

Obviously we believe there will be more going on with the USS Boxer (LHD 4) SOUTHCOM deployment than a humanitarian mission.

Sunday Links

The Photo is the Bourbon Oceanteam 101, an interesting design in the context of the Sea Base concept. Consider the current approach, the cranes are on the ship making the delivery of materials, not on the ship intended to operate as the pier. From an outside perspective, that sounds backwards to us. This ship is not as big as it looks, and is less expensive than you think. Remove all that oil gear and use your imagination. Do we think this design should be in the Sea Base? Not really, rather we use this as an example of how the pier should be the crane, because it allows for backwards compatibility to existing heavy lift vessels. Homepage here, specs here (PDF).

A quick history reminder, last time the M80 Stiletto was moved from one port to another the MSC did the work.

The Nimitz CSG currently on deployment to the Pacific is getting more escorts half way through its deployment. We observe it very rare for a CSG already on deployment to have escorts surged. Can't say we have seen this before, makes us wonder, what is going on in the South Pacific we aren't hearing about.

This is one of the most interesting blog ideas we have seen in awhile. Purpose is stated as follows.

This blog is made up of transcripts of Harry Lamin's letters from the first World War. The letters will be posted exactly 90 years after they were written. To find out Harry's fate, follow the blog!

Very cool.

Finally, the Destroyermen delivers an excellent update to their deployment. It comes off as that "welcome to the suck" naval style post that allows the reader to feel the rising anxiety and tension the crew feels as the ship enters the war zone. Well done.

Observing the Rotation of US Naval Power to the Middle East

As you might observe in our latest Order of Battle, the US Navy is currently operating two Carrier Strike Groups in the Middle East. Additionally, we are observing two Expeditionary Strike Groups and a British Carrier Strike Group in the region as well. As we read the events as they are disclosed in public sources, we believe the United States is on the verge of major offensive operations in the Middle East.

These rotational periods where strike groups overlap durations in forward theaters do occur every year, and are not abnormal, however it is noteworthy that this year the rotation coincides with a large naval presence from Europe in the 5th Fleet theater. We also observe the possibility that this massive increase of naval power may not be reduced as quickly as we observed it would last week.

We default to better sources, including the Small Wars Journal and Long War Journal for understanding the tactical operations taking place in Afghanistan and Iraq, but in observing an increase in naval forces in the region, we believe the increase is directly related to events taking place on the ground in both theaters.

The USS Harry S Truman presence is directly related to activity specific to supporting the current events surrounding the fighting in Basra, and the larger activities unfolding with the Mahdi Army. Our observation of General Petraeus is that he isn't keeping surged troops in Iraq simply to wait around and watch events unfold, rather we believe he has a stopwatch regarding Mahdi Army activity, and the clock is quickly counting down to zero. We believe that if the Mahdi Army situation doesn't resolve itself quickly, MNF-I will be solving that issue with force. The additional carrier air power in the region is to support that offensive if it is required, and because the deployment of the USS Harry S Truman (CVN 75) is approaching its conclusion over the next two weeks, we believe Petraeus will insure the carrier is on station if the offensive is required.

The issue for CENTOM isn't that an aircraft carrier can't support operations in both theaters, the Navy has proven one carrier can support both wars at the same time many times over the last few years. The issue is that a single aircraft carrier can't support offensive operations in both theaters at the same time. In that context, we observe the 24th MEU is on the move, and we believe this 'surged' Marine force was sent to the region for a purpose, and it wasn't to guard a border. News reporting supports our theory.

U.S. marines are crossing the sands of southern Afghanistan for the first time in years, providing a boost to a NATO coalition that is growing in size but still short on manpower, especially where it counts.

Military officials say some of the marines who make up the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit in Afghanistan were among those who helped to tame a thriving insurgency in western Iraq.

Plans are for the newly arrived forces to move into regions of Afghanistan now controlled by the Taliban.

With Pakistan negotiating with the Taliban again, we believe the 24th MEU is about to go on the offensive, and that will require close air support. It doesn't appear to us as coincidental the 24th MEU is on the move just as the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) arrives to the region.

With two major offensives either already begun or about to begin in the region, ground forces will require more air power than usual to support these activities. The USS Harry S Truman (CVN 75) deployed on November 5th, 2007. The 6 month mark will come and go on May 5th, 2008, and the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) has already arrived on station to replace the Truman CSG. We observe that the Canadian frigate HMCS Charlottetown (FFH 339), which was part of the Truman CSG, has already crossed into the Suez Canal on its way home. This implies the deployment for the Truman CSG has been extended.

We read any sustained increase of two aircraft carriers to be a signal that a considerable amount of military activity is about to take place in both Afghanistan and Iraq. It will be interesting to see how long the Truman CSG remains in the region, and it could be that events on the ground in Iraq over the next few days will decide how long the carrier remains in theater.

Update: Yes, we are intentionally ignoring the Iran possibilities, although we will be monitoring this and this closely. We admit we might be willfully denying the possibility of a strike against Iran, despite the fact that if you add the European forces, we are currently observing the highest level of naval presence in the Middle East region since late 2003.

5th Fleet Focus: More Incidents You Don't Hear About

We are observing a pattern of press reporting worldwide of incidents that have been absent in the media in the past from the 5th Fleet AOR. We have recognized for a long time that news reporting of events didn't match up with Mariner reports from the region, but chalked the lack of news reporting up to the presence of Admiral Fallon, who was very good at controlling information from the sea in his AOR.

Fallon is gone and the news is getting out. We will attempt to highlight some of the more interesting English language media reporting, and may attempt to translate some of the more interesting foreign reporting as well. The Guardian took its turn today, with stories from the region from the day the Japanese Super Tanker was attacked. The article is written from the perspective of Johan Lillkung and his ship log. John is captain of Dolphin, a 27-metre private yacht in the Red Sea that day. In his captain's log he describes several recent attacks on boats, including his own. This is an excellent article.

It started 20.35 (local time) on 20 April with a Mayday call on the radio. Faisal Mustafa, a small wooden cargo ship, was en route from the Red Sea to India. Their position was only four nautical miles off our starboard side. We saw four dinghy type speedboats quickly approach the ship. The last radio transmission, from the captain, was 'Merciful God, can somebody help us, pirates are boarding. Merciful God, help us please!'

A fantastic job of reporting here, many more incidents you haven't heard and details of those incidents in this story. Read it all. Same story is being covered here as well, including some commentary similar to ours of a shift in media attention, or as we see it, a lack of secrecy at the same level as in the past regarding activity at sea. BTW, sounds like that pirate incident may have generated an environmental problem, the report indicates the Takayama was spilling oil. I had previously read the tanker was empty. Perhaps not?

Spanish Fishing Boat Released by Pirates

The Spanish fishing boat captured by pirates last week has released by pirates.

The 26 crew members onboard a fishing boat hijacked by pirates off the coast of Somalia nearly a week ago have been freed, Spanish and Somali authorities said Saturday.

"The ship is free and the pirates disappeared into their villages," said Abdi Khalif Ahmed, chairman of Haradhere port local authority in central Somalia, by telephone.

Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Maria Teresa Fernandez de la Vega declined to say if a ransom had been paid to the hijackers, insisting the release of the Playa de Bakio had been achieved by "cooperation and diplomacy."

"The fishing boat Bakio has been liberated and is now sailing in total freedom, escorted by a Spanish frigate toward safer waters," De la Vega told a news conference.

The ransom paid was $1.2 million according to some news reports. We predict the next attack will occur by the end of the week. It is our observations that as one episode ends, another begins within a few days. Spain intends to take the issue of piracy before the EU on Tuesday.

5th Fleet Focus: Order of Battle

Order of Battle in the 5th Fleet Area of Responsibility.

The Truman Carrier Strike Group

USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75)
USS San Jacinto (CG 56) - 6th Fleet
USS Hue City (CG 66)
USS Carney (DDG 64)
USS Oscar Austin (DDG 79)
USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG 81)
HMS Manchester (D95)
HMCS Charlottetown (FFH 339)
USNS Arctic (T-AOE 8)
USS Montpelier (SSN 765)


Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group

USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72)
USS Mobile Bay (CG 53)
USS Russell (DDG 59)
USS Shoup (DDG 86)
USS Momsen (DDG 92)
USS Curts (FFG 38)


Tarawa Expeditionary Strike Group

USS Tarawa (LHA 1)
USS Cleveland (LPD 7)
USS Germantown (LSD 42)
USS Port Royal (CG 73)
USS Hopper (DDG 70)
USS Ingraham (FFG 61)


Nassau Expeditionary Strike Group

USS Nassau (LHA 4)
USS Ashland (LSD 48)
USS Nashville (LPD 13)
USS Philippine Sea (CG 58)
USS Ross (DDG 71)
USS Bulkeley (DDG 84)
USS Albany (SSN 753)


Orion 08 Strike Group

HMS Illustrious (R06)
HMS Edinburgh (D97)
HMS Westminster (F237)
HMS Trafalgar (S107)
USS Cole (DDG 67)
FS Jean Bart (D615)
SPS Mendez Nunez (F104)


In Theater

Ocean 6
FGS Emden (F 210)
FGS Hamburg (F220)
FGS Koeln (F 211)
HNLMS Evertsen (F 805)
ITS Commandante Borsini (P491)
FS Guepratte (F714)
FS Commandant Bouan (F797)
FS Jeanne d'Arc (R97)
FS Georges Leygues (D640)
USS Oak Hill (LSD 51)
HMS Campbeltown (F86)
HMS Chatham )F87)
HMS Montrose (F236)
HMAS Arunta (FFH 151)
BRNS Sabha (FFGHM 90 )
USS Scout (MCM 8)
USS Gladiator (MCM 11)
USS Ardent (MCM 12)
USS Dexterous (MCM 13)
HMS Ramsay (M 110)
HMS Blyth (M 111)
HMS Atherstone (M38)
HMS Chiddingfold (M37)

Report: Ship Opens Fire On Pasdaran

We are observing news traffic that a little gunfire has been put down range in the Persian Gulf today. Initial reports, which have a tendency to be inaccurate, indicate a security detachment has fired M-16s at a small Padraran (Iranian Revolutionary Guard) boat at around 100 yards.

The ship is the is SS Westward Venture, a ship currently under Navy contract for supporting the Iraq war. If you want to do some calculations, the SS Westward Venture has a tracking page here, and last reported its position on April 22nd.

We said the other day we don't hear about most of the activity happening in the Persian Gulf. We do not think this is uncommon or an isolated incident, rather we observe Admiral Fallon used to keep this kind of stuff from the public.

You want to know why Hillary Clinton has become a bit hawkish lately? As a member of the Armed Services Committee she is probably very aware of what has been happening, and we will be hearing about this type of stuff a lot more often. Basically she is getting in line where she believes public opinion will be moving, while her opponent who tries to downplay thuggery looks less in touch with events.

Navy Will Stand Up 4th Fleet in July

When we first heard about this in January, we didn't expect it to happen until next year. Apparently, the Navy will stand up the 4th Fleet in July.

The Navy will create a 4th Fleet headquartered at Naval Station Mayport, Fla., and will tap a two-star SEAL officer to lead it, according to a Pentagon announcement Thursday.

Rear Adm. Joseph Kernan, head of Naval Special Warfare Command in Coronado, Calif., has been chosen to command the new fleet. Kernan will take control of both 4th Fleet and the current Naval Forces Southern Command, the Navy component of U.S. Southern Command.

The command will oversee maritime operations in Central and South American waters, and is similar to the command structure of 5th Fleet, which is also Naval Forces Central Command.

Our first impression of this news was that we expected the discussion to focus in on the relationship between the United States and South America. The general decline in relations is something we have discussed in the past as we have observed the mission profiles and intent of the US Navy in dealing with our southern neighbors. We don't observe this event in that context though, the mission in July will be the same mission as today, and the challenges will also be the same, so we will let others lead that discussion.

We see this event in the context of leadership and strategy. We note this is the first strategic decision regarding the direction of the Navy Admiral Roughead has made as CNO. Up until this point, Admiral Roughead had inherited all strategic decisions, whether it was the fleet constitution plan (313 plan) or the new maritime strategy, the strategic direction of the Navy had already been decided by either CNO Clark or CNO Mullen.

Another aspect of this event that sticks out is how the monopoly of leadership may be changing, and that strikes us as important. Admiral Roughead, a surface warfare officer of the AEGIS community, is standing up a fleet to support SOUTHCOM, currently commanded by Adm. James Stavridis, another surface warfare officer of the AEGIS community, but has appointed Rear Adm. Joseph Kernan, who comes from the SEAL community. While that may not seem like a big deal, we explained the other day that we believe that just as the AEGIS community and naval aviation community leads the Navy today, it will be the expeditionary community and submarine community, including COs of XOs of those ship types today, who will make up the Navy leadership of tomorrow. This has nothing to do with a bias against AEGIS COs and XOs, rather we believe as the Navy tackles the challenges of a comprehensive strategy there will be more balance evident in commands. How obvious is this issue? We quote the Navy Times article for an example.

“I am likewise thrilled with the choice of a Navy SEAL for this important and expeditionary job,” Stavridis said “He is the right officer for the challenging tasks in the region, and additionally has a strong sense of theater security cooperation and interaction with our partner nations.”

Although he’s a SEAL, Kernan isn’t a stranger to the conventional fleet. As a junior officer, he served aboard the cruiser Horne.

Comments like that explain why the IA program in the Navy is seen in the context of career killer for officers. We can only hope that Adm. Stavridis didn't emphasize that point, and its the article author who is making that point.

In January my first impression of the 4th fleet proposal was that the last thing the Navy needs to do is add another staff to a shrinking fleet, we now take the opposite position. Given the challenges the Navy will manage in the 21st century, we see the 4th fleet and the 6th fleet as the primary drivers for better balance in leadership promotions, because it is within the responsibilities of these fleets where we believe the conventional warfare forces of the Navy will hold minor relevance to executing strategy.

Adm. James Stavridis, who we believe is the next CNO in waiting, has a lot of interesting comments. We really like these quotes.

The fleet, he said, will be focused on preventing and responding to mass migration of refugees, as has happened in the past in Haiti and Cuba, as well as interdicting the flow of illegal drugs and partnering with countries throughout the region.

“We will also seek to build the ability of the 4th Fleet to work with interagency partners like U.S. Department of State, [U.S. Agency for International Development] and Department of Homeland Security,” he said.

Stavridis said anti-drug operations, humanitarian and cooperative training missions are expected to be the new command’s primary engagements.

We have long believed that as the maritime strategy was developed, Admiral Stavridis was very influential in its direction. 4th fleet represents all the unique, unconventional approaches that will be required to effectively sustain long term peace in the 21st century. While maritime law enforcement will be important, and in that regard traditional naval forces will need to be present, it is the pursuit of the peacemaker objects in maritime strategy where 4th fleet will be focused.

The article continues.

“One particularly important mission for the 4th Fleet will be medical diplomacy, as exemplified by the voyage last summer of [the hospital ship] Comfort, which conducted nearly 400,000 patient encounters during a four-month cruise to 12 countries in the region,” Stavridis said.

This year, the amphibious assault ships Boxer and Kearsarge will “return on similar missions in the region this summer,” he said, “all under the aegis of 4th Fleet.”

Medical Diplomacy continues to develop buzz. While it is not the Great White Fleet we discussed earlier this year, the pattern to use of amphibious ships without Marines for exercising soft power towards our national interest continues. 4th Fleet is going to be interesting to observe, because it will likely be heavy on LPD and MSC and light on carrier and cruiser.

Excellent Article on African Partnership Station

David Axe is to the Navy, Coast Guard, and Air Force what Phillip Carter has become covering the Army and Marines, and since David already lives in Washington, we encourage the Washington Post to offer David a job and complete the circle of military coverage. Between Phillip Carter and David Axe, it would be very difficult for any other news organization to employ two other bloggers who get it strategically and understand it all tactically in regards to all the military services.

David's article today in World Politics Review is an excellent piece on the African Partnership Station, and is the first I've seen outside the military that ties in the strategic vision and the tactical day to day in what the Navy is trying to accomplish with its soft power strategy.

Last week the U.S. Navy amphibious ship Fort McHenry quietly slipped into Naples harbor in Italy, home of the U.S. Sixth Fleet, ending a six-month deployment to the West African coast. The 16,000-ton vessel's mission, though largely unheralded, signaled a sea change in the Navy's strategy.

During its October-to-April cruise, Fort McHenry visited 19 ports in 10 countries, from Liberia to Senegal, supporting scientists, aid workers and military trainers from the U.S. and allied militaries -- and delivering half a million meals to starving families. The Pentagon calls the vessel's mix of training, diplomacy, science and humanitarian assistance the "Africa Partnership Station," and aims to make it a regular affair.

It's all part of Defense Secretary Robert Gates' increasing emphasis on addressing underlying societal ills before they fester into full-blown conflicts. Instead of bombing, shooting and capturing bad guys, "ultimate success or failure will increasingly depend more on shaping the behavior of others -- friends and adversaries, and most importantly, the people in between," Gates said in an April 21 speech in Alabama.

We recommend reading in full. We also note David has the inside information at the end of the article on what to expect for the East African Partnership Station, another unique deployment that you Coast Guard folks might find very interesting.

Observing the ROKS Dokdo (LPH 6111)

We are entering an expeditionary era. If the 20th century was dominated by the aircraft carrier, we believe it will be the mothership that dominates the 21st century. The best motherships will support combinations of manned and unmanned deployable platforms, and carries equipment intended for operation on land and at sea. In other words, the best motherships will be big.

This perspective on the future maritime environment explains why we tend to observe closely events surrounding the operations of amphibious ships.

Observe a trend. Most people are aware of the French Mistral class, but few realize South Africa might buy one. The Spanish Juan Carlos class is an excellent ship, and will be a nice addition to Australia. The Japanese Hyuga class and the South Korean Dokdo class are very powerful additions in the Pacific, and it is very possible the Dokdo class will be selected by Turkey for its LPD program. If the F-35B ends up a success story, there will be several nations sporting platforms able to utilize the F-35B at sea.

In the spirit of the amphibious aviation ship, we offer a few videos of the ROKS Dokdo (LPH 6111) conducting operations.

We like that South Korea didn't build the most capable ship, rather a very capable ship.

One of our new favorite blogs is 'Manoeuvre' in Maritime Asia, which appears to be a blog run by an American who goes to school in London and studies South Korea? Interesting nonetheless. As we've been reading back on that blog, we came across this post from back in December, and this interesting comment.

While the LPX Dokdo may be instrumental in a potential war against North Korea, the aircraft carrier appears to have been conceived with a wider array of operations in mind as apparent in the English-language words inscribed along the top of the LPX Dokdo's logo: project power.

I was unable to locate that logo, but I'd like to see it. South Korea is going blue water and wants to be forward deployed. In the 21st century, South Korea is positioning its Navy very well by leading with an expeditionary ship that is flexible with the right metrics to incorporate all of the strategical and tactical ideas of our time for both warfighting and peacemaking.

M80 Stiletto Will Get Its Chance

It was selected as one of TIME magazines best inventions of 2006. It fits in a well deck, can support UAVs, claims to have excellent stealth, and is one of the most recognizable small craft in the US arsenal. It is unpopular in many traditional circles inside the Navy, and widely touted in other circles, particularly retired veterans of Vietnam river patrols. It has been claimed capable of performing virtually every brown and green water mission profile, and yet has never been discussed officially as performing any mission profile over the last couple of years.

Luckily, it will soon get its trial by fire, and we will find out what the $6 million M80 Stiletto can really do. This small nugget pops up in the insidedefense.com Defense Alert stack.

DefenseAlert, April 24, 2024 -- An experimental military vessel called "Stiletto" is slated to head toward Colombia next month to help U.S. Southern Command officials there track down drug traffickers, defense officials tell InsideDefense.com.

We see this as a very smart way to use a unique, untested platform. While we believe the hype of the M80 has gone a bit too far since its launch, we are very pleased to see the M80 earn its reputation with this trial on the front lines of operations. Like all unique platforms, maybe we'll see a military channel special this Christmas profiling its deployment? Probably not...

The Navy deserves credit here, it is very wise to send the unique platforms like Sea Fighter (FSF-1) and Stiletto to the front lines of small wars and see what they can do. Gates said it best the other day.

An unconventional era of warfare requires unconventional thinkers.

Given the unpopularity of the M80 Stiletto, not to mention Duncan Hunters Navy, it appears someone inside the Navy got the SECDEF's memo, and is showing a bit of unconventional thinking in a culture best defined for its conventional, traditional resistance to any change.

USS Bonefish (SS-582) Fire: Remembering The 20th Anniversary

There are stories behind the stories, and it usually takes awhile for the stories to get told. The internet is very good at this, and in the context of Naval History, the internet is excellent for telling stories like this:

Today is the 20th anniversary of the fire in the battery well aboard USS BONEFISH (SS-582), approximately 160 miles east of Mayport, FL, while the USS JOHN F KENNEDY (CV-67), the USS CARR (FFG-52) and the BONEFISH were conducting training operations together.

As a result of the posting before, the aircrewman aboard the SH-3 Sea King from the KENNEDY has met with me and described the initial chaos from about 30 feet above the water, as he hoisted submariners to safety. He left a comment letting me know the record of the reports I had heard almost 20 years ago were not completely accurate. I was able to find and contact the then XO of the BONEFISH, who graciously spent his time typing up and forwarding his recollections.

Seven great reads in one place, Bravo Zulu xformed. Additional pictures available here.

Spain Sending Signals to Somalia

This is how it started last time too, quiet movements of specific forces.

According to latest reports, the pirates who captured a Basque tuna fishing boat off the coast of Somalia last Sunday have demanded €400,000 euros for the safe release of the 26 hostages, 13 of whom are Spanish.

In related news, it seems that four Spanish Air Force planes have been sent to the area to keep an eye on the pirates from above and provide support for a possible special forces rescue mission.

Spain's Foreign Affairs minister Miguel Ángel Moratinos confirmed offcially yesterday that an Orion spotter plane equipped with radar had been deployed to provide air cover for the Spanish Navy newest battleship, the 'Méndez Núñez', which is now in place after being diverted from manoeuvres in the Red Sea.

According to a report in today's El País, the three other Spanish Air Force planes are a Falcon fighter jet, a Hercules transport plane and a Boeing 707.

We usually don't learn of ransom figures while the hostages are still being held, but €400,000 Euros is interesting. That is around half the total demanded from the French. There is a big difference this time though, the hostages were removed from the boat.

That doesn't usually happen, but says something about the region and lack of law enforcement, and perhaps support for piracy from the local population.

Hitting the Fixed Price For the LCS Is Important

Continuing out theme this week of shipbuilding, I've been thinking about that $460 million target cost number for the LCS passed with last years defense budget. If you are not aware, Ronald O'Rourke summarizes the issue.

The Navy in 2007 requested that Congress amend the existing unit procurement cost cap for the fifth and sixth ships to $460 million, plus adjustments for inflation and other factors. Congress amended the cost cap to $460 million, but applied it not only to the fifth and sixth LCSs, but to all LCSs procured in FY2008 and subsequent years. The use of fixed-price contracts for future LCSs was something that the Navy had stated an intention to do as part of its plan for restructuring the LCS program.

People don't like the comparison of the Littoral Combat Ship to the Oliver Hazard Perry class costs ($650 million in FY08 dollars), or at least I've been told this again and again, so I thought I might try a different comparison. Regardless of how many Littoral Combat Ships get built, I think the LCS has the potential to the best minesweeper ever built. MIW is serious business, and I do not see a problem investing money in MIW, and I think $460 million per ship in FY08 dollars is a good target.

$460 million sounds like a ton of money for a 3100 ton ship. We all see places where costs could be cut for the LCS and it remain effective for the MIW role, and it seems really silly we are building a 50 knot minesweeper. Regular readers also know I think motherships should be big, and see the Navy building a flotilla of unrated mini motherships to lack serious strategic vision regarding the 21st century. However, despite these criticisms, if I was the Navy, or if I was advocating for MIW, this is probably something I'd try to highlight more often.

I found this interesting summery from 1996 regarding the Avenger class MCMs (DOC Formet). It got me thinking about all the problems we had building the Avenger class, so I decided to try calculating some costs.

According to this SAR report from December 1990, the base year cost of the MCM-1 class is $1466.3 million for 14 ships, or an average unit cost of $104.7 million in FY82 dollars. For those who aren't aware, the Navy uses a special index for measuring inflation for shipbuilding, but they do not make that shipbuilding inflation index public. The theory behind this special shipbuilding index is that shipbuilding inflation is higher than inflation in other DoD sectors.

However, with every budget the DoD does publish what is known as the Greenbook, an inflation index for calculating costs of different fiscal years. Because the LCS figure of $460 million is locked into FY08, I downloaded the DoD FY 2008 Greenbook and used this 'second best source' for this example.

Using Table 5.7 of the Fy08 Greenbook to adjust for inflation, we find the procurement deflater that excludes pay, fuel, and medical to be 53.02 for FY82. Admittedly I haven't studied my economics in over a decade, and may have skipped that class a lot, but if I'm remembering how to do this correctly the MCM-1 class which costs an average of $104.7 million in FY82 is around $197.5 million in FY08.

That got me thinking a bit. If the Avenger class went for $197.5 million, at 1312 tons that is an average of $150 million per 1000 tons. If the LCS is able to hit cost targets of $460 million, at 3100 tons that comes out to around $148 million per 1000 tons, which is less per 1000 tons than the really basic Avenger class.

If you believe shipbuilding inflation is higher than other sectors, then the FY08 $197.5 million figure for the Avenger class would be wrong, the actual cost figure would be much higher. I think most people would agree shipbuilding inflation is much higher than other sectors. In essence, if the LCS can hit the fixed price target of $460 million in FY08 dollars, it will be less expensive per ton than the Avenger class, potentially a lot less expensive, and a hell of a lot more capable.

Something I've been thinking about lately.

No Skyhawks on Washington

The latest news from Brazil is that there will be no A-4s operating off the GW. The article from Robert Godoy was the first in this mornings CLIPs.

The Navy Command is taking between seven and 11 ships to Unitas 2008 - five escort units, one submarine and one patrol ship. The Air Force is also taking part, with a maritime surveillance squadron and, maybe, precision attack airplanes.

The aircraft carrier A12 Sao Paulo will not take part in the exercise. In for an overhaul and modernization since 2005, when it was damaged by a small fire, the flagship of the squadron was expected to return to sea this month. It will not. The expectation is that this will happen sometime this year still, "after the tests necessary following a long period of maintenance." The A-1 Skyhawk fighter jets on the A12 - of the 23 acquired second-hand in Kuwait at the end of the 1990s, only two are in a condition to be used - will not operate on the George Washington. Yesterday, in Buenos Aires, Argentine Defense Minister Nilda Garre said that navy fighter jets of will carry out landing and take-off tests on the CVN73.

It is good to see more news coverage of the GWs visit. Brazil is the future of this hemisphere, and we need to get very comfortable working with them, doing it is as often as possible. It is also both entertaining and interesting to observe the Brazilians, particularly as they discuss the GW.

Yesterday I was reading an article where the premise was Brazil should buy the Kitty Hawk if India doesn't, nevermind Brazil probably can't afford it, certainly doesn't have the money to operate it or buy enough aircraft to use it. None of that seems to matter though, ahh to be a dreamer though.

Will A-4Skyhawks Fly Off the GW?

We observed on Monday that the USS George Washington (CVN 73) and two Navy escorts are visiting Rio de Janeiro to exercise with Brazil and Argentina in UNITAS XLIX. The Brazil Naval Blog suggested that four ships were visiting, and we were curious what the fourth ship was. Luckily, the Brazil Naval Blog comes through on cue, and highlights the fourth vessel as the USCGC Northland (WMEC-904).

After reading the Partnership of Americas 2008 fact sheet, we noticed something that didn't register at the time but might be something to watch for.

During the in-port and underway phases of exercise UNITAS Atlantic, we will work with Brazil and Argentina (and other navies that may accept Brazil’s invitation to participate).

We will train together in multi-warfare exercises designed to increase coalition skills of all navies involved. The carrier and air wing’s participation will accomplish several things:

1. Allow us to integrate with officers and sailors from our Brazilian sister ship, Sao Paulo, and naval aviation squadron VF-1.
2. Build relationships by giving pilots, landing signal officers, air traffic controllers and fighter controllers from Brazil, Argentina, and the U.S. opportunities to train together.

The Sao Paulo was placed in dry dock on January 14th and pulled out of dry dock on March 27th, only a few weeks ago. While it is possible the Sao Paulo will be participating in the UNITAS exercise, I keep thinking I read something about the Sao Paulo being out of service until later this year undergoing repairs.

We believe this means it is very possible that Brazilian A-4 Skyhawks will be flying off the deck of the USS George Washington (CVN 73) over the next few weeks. If true, that should produce some interesting photography, because unless someone is aware of something we are not, I believe this would be the first time the A-4 Skyhawk operated off a Nimitz class aircraft carrier.

Foreign aircraft flying off US aircraft carriers may be a theme over the next few months, we still expect the French to fly off the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) in July.