Observing the Rotation of US Naval Power to the Middle East

As you might observe in our latest Order of Battle, the US Navy is currently operating two Carrier Strike Groups in the Middle East. Additionally, we are observing two Expeditionary Strike Groups and a British Carrier Strike Group in the region as well. As we read the events as they are disclosed in public sources, we believe the United States is on the verge of major offensive operations in the Middle East.

These rotational periods where strike groups overlap durations in forward theaters do occur every year, and are not abnormal, however it is noteworthy that this year the rotation coincides with a large naval presence from Europe in the 5th Fleet theater. We also observe the possibility that this massive increase of naval power may not be reduced as quickly as we observed it would last week.

We default to better sources, including the Small Wars Journal and Long War Journal for understanding the tactical operations taking place in Afghanistan and Iraq, but in observing an increase in naval forces in the region, we believe the increase is directly related to events taking place on the ground in both theaters.

The USS Harry S Truman presence is directly related to activity specific to supporting the current events surrounding the fighting in Basra, and the larger activities unfolding with the Mahdi Army. Our observation of General Petraeus is that he isn't keeping surged troops in Iraq simply to wait around and watch events unfold, rather we believe he has a stopwatch regarding Mahdi Army activity, and the clock is quickly counting down to zero. We believe that if the Mahdi Army situation doesn't resolve itself quickly, MNF-I will be solving that issue with force. The additional carrier air power in the region is to support that offensive if it is required, and because the deployment of the USS Harry S Truman (CVN 75) is approaching its conclusion over the next two weeks, we believe Petraeus will insure the carrier is on station if the offensive is required.

The issue for CENTOM isn't that an aircraft carrier can't support operations in both theaters, the Navy has proven one carrier can support both wars at the same time many times over the last few years. The issue is that a single aircraft carrier can't support offensive operations in both theaters at the same time. In that context, we observe the 24th MEU is on the move, and we believe this 'surged' Marine force was sent to the region for a purpose, and it wasn't to guard a border. News reporting supports our theory.

U.S. marines are crossing the sands of southern Afghanistan for the first time in years, providing a boost to a NATO coalition that is growing in size but still short on manpower, especially where it counts.

Military officials say some of the marines who make up the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit in Afghanistan were among those who helped to tame a thriving insurgency in western Iraq.

Plans are for the newly arrived forces to move into regions of Afghanistan now controlled by the Taliban.

With Pakistan negotiating with the Taliban again, we believe the 24th MEU is about to go on the offensive, and that will require close air support. It doesn't appear to us as coincidental the 24th MEU is on the move just as the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) arrives to the region.

With two major offensives either already begun or about to begin in the region, ground forces will require more air power than usual to support these activities. The USS Harry S Truman (CVN 75) deployed on November 5th, 2007. The 6 month mark will come and go on May 5th, 2008, and the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) has already arrived on station to replace the Truman CSG. We observe that the Canadian frigate HMCS Charlottetown (FFH 339), which was part of the Truman CSG, has already crossed into the Suez Canal on its way home. This implies the deployment for the Truman CSG has been extended.

We read any sustained increase of two aircraft carriers to be a signal that a considerable amount of military activity is about to take place in both Afghanistan and Iraq. It will be interesting to see how long the Truman CSG remains in the region, and it could be that events on the ground in Iraq over the next few days will decide how long the carrier remains in theater.

Update: Yes, we are intentionally ignoring the Iran possibilities, although we will be monitoring this and this closely. We admit we might be willfully denying the possibility of a strike against Iran, despite the fact that if you add the European forces, we are currently observing the highest level of naval presence in the Middle East region since late 2003.