The Piracy Problem, Politics and Possibilities

We are rapidly approaching the political discussion regarding maritime piracy, and it is going to be one worth observing closely. Piracy is not a threat to the global system, at least not yet, but it is beginning to take a toll on global economics and a potential of future disruption is now on the minds of many. While it is one thing for a tuna boat with 13 Spanish citizens to be hijacked at sea, the oil bunkering and disruption of oil in Nigeria, and now a bold attack on the 150,000 ton Japanese super tanker is a warning sign that a shared international security challenge is emerging. What we find most interesting about the problem is that not only is it global, but it is an issue where many nations find common ground.

With back to back piracy incidents, France and Spain are taking the lead on many fronts, including the process relevant to the political debate regarding the exercise of military power, but also by building support through international institutions. This Navy Times article sets up a number of interesting discussions.

The United States and France are drafting a U.N. resolution that would allow countries to chase and arrest pirates off Somalia’s coast, responding to a spate of attacks including this week’s hijacking of a Spanish tuna boat, U.N. diplomats said Monday.

France’s U.N. Ambassador Jean-Maurice Ripert said the resolution would authorize foreign governments to pursue pirate vessels into territorial waters, make arrests, and prosecute suspects.

Where is the problem?

According to a report from the International Maritime Bureau, piracy is on the rise, with seafarers suffering 49 attacks between January and March — up 20 percent from the period last year.

Nigeria ranked as the No. 1 trouble spot. India and the Gulf of Aden tied for second, with each reporting five incidents. Nearly two dozen piracy incidents were recorded off the coast of Somalia since January 2007, according to Andrew Mwangura of the Kenya-based Seafarers Assistance Program.

Why does it matter to you?

The tanker attack helped send crude oil prices to a new record, spiking above $117 a barrel Monday before falling back slightly...

Cyrus Mody, a senior analyst at the Maritime Bureau, warned of piracy’s effect on the shipping industry.

“Insurance gets involved, premiums rise up, the owner is not happy so he will raise his freight cost. If he does that, the cost to the end buyer increases and at the end the common man has to bare the brunt,” he said. “It’s a cycle and it keeps going on.”

Now follow where the discussion is going...

The Spanish prime minister’s office said efforts were under way to secure the sailors’ release, and that aid was being sought from NATO, the African Union, France and Britain. Spain does not have an embassy in Somalia, which has not had an effective government since 1991...

The European Union presidency on Monday called for a strong international effort to address piracy, while Spanish lawmaker Mikel Irujo Amezaga urged immediate action at the European Parliament.

“There is a lack of EU legislation on maritime security. Security is more or less regulated inside the EU but once you go outside, there’s nothing at all protecting European ships. We’re going to ask the (European) Commission again to rectify this,” Irujo Amezaga said by telephone.

As the world looks for consensus on maritime law enforcement, they have appropriately turned to the international institutions including United Nations, NATO, the African Union, and the European Union for a way forward. In observing this approach, we believe there is a good case to be made that the piracy issue serves as an excellent test case to determine the usefulness of international institutions in the 21st century to promote international security in the post Iraq environment.

Most Americans don't realize just how low on the priorities list of the US Navy piracy falls in that region. There is a lot more going on in the 5th Fleet than we hear about in the news, and our nations Navy is very busy. Imagine a world where a US Navy ship opens fire in the Strait of Hormuz on an Iranian vessel and nobody hears about it. We live in that world, and if it wasn't for a leak in the Pentagon several days later regarding an incident with Iran where no weapons were fired, we never would have heard about the USS Whidbey Island (LSD 41) firing warning shots at Iranian boats that got too close. We believe this type of incident is more routine than is being reported. Remember the PC boat that fired a flare as a warning the other day? I didn't bring it up for discussion because I didn't think it was news, and in the context of all the stuff we don't hear about through the media, I still don't think it was news.

In observing what naval news does come out of the 5th Fleet region, we're convinced we are only hearing about 10% of what is going on region wide. While it is easy to imagine based on our weekly Order of Battles that NATO ships are patrolling the shores looking for pirates and protecting the maritime domain, that is not reality. In that region of earth and sea we do not see the smuggling, human trafficking, and other criminal activity that naval forces are dealing with. In a place of warlord, tribe, and king where every family is locked, loaded and being resupplied by the local arms dealer, military forces at sea have their hands full with the day to day.

Based on our last Order of Battle, the United States Navy has only 10 surface combatants in the entire 5th Fleet region; 2 cruisers, 7 destroyers, and a frigate. Among many other unnamed roles, those ten surface combatants are expected to provide protection for the Iraqi maritime domain, missile defense for the Middle East, escort for military cargo coming in and out of the region in support of two wars, escort to other naval forces including the regional aircraft carrier, the protection of maritime trade, exercise and operate with foreign naval forces, support maritime security operations, logistically supply naval forces of both the United States and allies, protect key ports and maritime facilities in the region, and carry out mission profiles against global terror organizations in the region that operate and train in ungoverned lands.

The Red Sea has an estimated area of 174,000 square miles. The Persian Gulf has an estimated area of 93,000 square miles. The Arabian Sea has an estimated area of 1,491,000 square miles. The 5th Fleet website claims the total area of responsibility is 7.5 million square miles. We hear how hard it is for our ground forces to cover all of Iraq with a surge force of 160,000 troops, but Iraq only has an area of 167,400 square miles, 10x smaller than those three bodies of water, and 44x smaller than the 5th Fleet area of responsibility the US Navy patrols. Ten surface combatants represent the bulk of the forces the US Navy has at sea in an area nearly twice size of the United States, to believe the United States Navy can solve the pirate problem on top of its existing regional commitments is asking too much.

However, the question is, can the international community make a difference? European Navies are shrinking, the Royal Navy is currently represented in the region by 5 warships, 2 of which are escorting their aircraft carrier. Those five warships represent 20% of the Royal Navy's entire surface combatant fleet. Those Royal Navy warships also represent the largest presence in the region since the invasion of Iraq. That number will be dropping to two warships over the next several weeks.

France is represented by 3 warships, and that number will drop to two over the next several weeks as well. Europe has naval commitments in the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, North Sea, North Atlantic, and all over the Mediterranean sea, and simply doesn't have the combined naval forces to surge to the region for any extended period of time, and nations that can rotate a warship to the region already do so. Canada has a large force of three ships heading to the region to assume control of TF 150 in several weeks, but this represents the largest force short of war Canada could contribute.

In this context it makes the approach to international institutions for assistance very appealing. Short of a massive surge by the United States Navy, a very unlikely scenario, the only way the international community is going to find enough ships to build an effective coalition to fight piracy is to include the worlds larger Navies, and most of those nations are in the Pacific.

Will China send ships? Will Russia? What about the worlds second largest Navy, Japan? Considering how controversial their refueling mission is, what are the odds they can forward deploy warships for a military operation? What about South Korea or Australia? Any coalition of naval forces should at least attempt to involve Africa's largest Navy, which is South Africa. What about the regions largest Navy, will Saudi Arabia participate? Is piracy a big enough problem to bring together a large enough international naval force to stop the problem? Unless something major happens, probably not.

In that context we believe there is a political element to the UN piracy discussion we are not politically savvy enough to fully analyze. We believe the Bush administration will go after a mandate specific to the authorization to take action against pirates, including right of pursuit into Somalian waters or territory, but will not attempt to expand the mandate to include Nigeria nor attempt to put together any sort of coalition naval force. However, we do believe that a public attempt to build that coalition is a good idea.

There is an interesting conundrum here. More than half of the maritime traffic in the region is either headed to or coming from the east towards Asia. The US Navy and the European Navies commit their warships to protecting that maritime traffic, and it pulls resources away from the protection of maritime traffic headed towards Europe, which is the target of the Somalian pirates. This appears to be an opportunity to involve China and Russia, if not also South Korea and Japan into maritime security operations of the Middle East. The questions are, should the West even try to involve the East in Middle East maritime security operations, and would a different administration expend political energy towards the coalition approach rather than going primarily for the mandate?

We believe the Bush administration will be successful by only going for a UN mandate to take action, but we also think a broader coalition approach better reflects the desired processes expressed in the Navy's maritime strategy. We believe there is a philosophical difference evident in the options for mandate vs mandate + coalition. A coalition that includes the East may not even be possible, but we see the philosophical question to be whether the coalition approach should be a priority. We are not politically savvy enough to determine if this philosophical difference divides politically or not.