According to this chart, the PLAN only commissioned a single submarine in 2007. If true, that would be very interesting, because in 2005 and 2006 the PLAN commissioned 7 submarines both years. Even adding only 1 submarines for 2007 to the equation, we note that the PLAN has commissioned 15 submarines in the last three years, while the US Navy has commissioned only 3. Given some of the photography we have posted on the blog over the past many months, there is also the potential that the average rate of 5 per year may be sustained. While this table doesn't say it, I'm thinking we may see 1 Yuan, 2 Type 094, and 1 Type 093 commissioned, and also a refitted Type 091 return to service in 2008 for a total of 5.
In previous discussions, we have compared photography of the first two Yuan class, clearly different and distinct one class submarines. Why Ronald ORourke has the second Yuan class commissioning in 2009, we believe because it was put to sea by mid last year it will likely be commissioned late this year, not next year. We also observed a third mod of the Yuan class under construction at Wuhan, and other photography of this new Yuan variant. While there are several rumors and suggestions the modifications to new Yuan mod represents shift to the sterling AIP for the Yuan class, the presence of flank sonars on the Yuan implies to me that tha the Yuan has had AIP the whole time, and I'm starting to believe those modifications instead will come to represent the addition VLS cells for ASMs on this third Yuan mod. I have no proof that is true, but VLS would explain the design modifications observed. We should find out by later this year.
As can be seen in the Wuhan shipyard photos that were taken late last year (linked above), there appears to be two Yuan class under construction there as of the fall of 07, with one already in the water. Wuhan is believed to be able to support construction for up to 4 conventional submarines annually, it will be interesting to see if Wuhan produces a steady rate construction, ramps up construction, or if the Yuan class ends up an intermediate class and transition to an entirely new class. Given the level of submarine construction from several shipyards and several types, it is a safe bet that China is rapidly developing its submarine design base.
I also wonder if the Type093 and Type 094 construction is proceeding faster than what is being reported in this CRS report. There are three reasons why that it is possible China is building nuclear submarines faster than is being suggested. First is the continued observance of a mysterious nuclear submarine with no planes on its sail (see here and here), with at least 3 pictures posted into the open source now. The second reason this is possible is because Sean O Conner has a photo taken from Google Earth taken at the same time as the pair of Type 094s were identified through Google Earth that appear to show a new Type 093/094 (probably 094) under construction (see bottom photo). The final reason is that the same sources from China bbs that suggested 2 Type 094s were in the water before Google Earth revealed that to be true has also suggested that 4 Type 093s will be in the water by 2009, and that development of the Type 095 has already begun. That has a ring of credibility because late last year an article on the Type 093 which included a photo appeared in a Chinese magazine, and that typically doesn't happen until the class is nearly completed construction.
Regardless of my nitpicking, this table is an excellent baseline to work with and one of the better tables we have seen that outlines the modernization of PLAN submarines. This report is also a lot more useful than the DoD 2008 report on China earlier this year, which we highlighted as lacking depth regarding PLAN submarine development. It sure would be nice if China would be like every other responsible nation and just tell everyone what they are doing with their military purchases. Guess that is asking too much...
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