Submarine Analysis Worth Watching

We have previously covered Martin Sieff's review of Chinese submarines. As some of the commenter's noted, there were some technicals in his previous analysis we had some issues with, but living up to the high standards and knowledge of the commenter's of this blog is a challenge for anyone in the media (we proudly fall short often). In all, we thought the three part series was interesting and a useful contribution to the debate.

We attempt to keep the discussion of China as level as possible. Our point of view regarding what China represents in the 21st century is rooted in history. We observe that there are very few major economic powers that ascended to the top without going to war, either externally or internally. We observe that periods of extended peace are usually coupled with massive military buildups world wide. We also observe that the lack of transparency in China's military spending strikes to the heart of concerns to nations in competition with China, both regionally and globally, and is a primary driver of increased military spending among economic powers in the Pacific, not to mention major military investments in the US. We see no value in a future war with China, and subscribe to many of the observations of Thomas PM Barnett regarding the potential China represents (See his latest articles in Good Magazine here, here, here, here, here, and here).

Martin Sieff's latest article drives home an important point, although he hits it from the China angle, and something we believe to be an emerging hard military power challenge to the United States.

Jean cited Richard Dorn of AMI International as estimating that currently there are about 377 diesel subs in service around the world operated by 39 nations. Jean also noted a trend we have tracked over the past two years in these columns of Russia's remarkable success in selling Kilo-class subs. China was already an enthusiastic customer. Now Venezuela and Indonesia have ordered them, too. Jean tallies 30 sales of Russian Kilos around the world so far with five more going to Venezuela by 2020, six to Indonesia, and China having bought in all 12 of them.

Jean also notes that China is already operating 10 Song-class diesel submarines. In November 2006 a Song-class submarine, as we have previously noted in these columns, surfaced within sight of the U.S. aircraft carrier Kitty Hawk. Had that occurred during wartime, the Kitty Hawk would have been dead.

The transparency issue we often discuss comes into play in the second paragraph. To highlight the problem, the following graph (pages CRS-9 and CRS-10 of latest report) used in a recent Ronald ORourke report on the modernization of the PLAN. The table is sourced to Jane’s Fighting Ships 2007-2008, and previous editions.


The report has the following notes regarding this graph, which hits directly to our point regarding transparency.

Table 1 shows actual and projected commissionings of Chinese submarines by class since 1995, when China took delivery of its first two Kilo-class boats. As shown in Table 1, observers expected China to have a total of 28 Shang, Kilo, Yuan, and Song class submarines in commission by the end of 2007.

Although Table 1 shows a total of 13 Song-class boats, DOD states (PDF) that China has a total of 10 Song-class boats. DOD also states that “The YUAN-class SS is now assessed to be in full production and will be ready for service by 2010.”

Photos published on the Internet have suggested to some observers that China has launched and perhaps completed (if perhaps not officially placed into service) higher numbers of Jin-, Shang-, and Yuan-class submarines than shown in Table 1.

We note that one of the debates includes the number of Song class submarines. As the CRS report highlights, the DoD lists only 10 Song class submarines in its 2008 report. However, we also note that in March 2006 testimony by Vice Admiral Albert H. Konetzni, Jr. USN (Retired) it was claimed there were 13 Song class submarines, the same number listed by Janes. VA Konetzni's resume leads that paper, and he appears to be very qualified to have access to the real number, where a public DoD report may not have that access.

New nuclear missile and attack boats are entering their fleet sooner than originally predicted.

• 1 JIN SSBN (on sea trials) - carries JL-2 missile that is capable of hitting the continental U.S. from the East China Sea.
• 2 Shang Class SSNs (One finishing and another starting Sea Trials).
• These complement the older XIA SSBN and 4 HAN SSNs.
• And they are building more (Looking at 6 SSBNs and 12 SSNs by 2020).

Equally alarming, they have bought and built the largest modern diesel fleet in the world. They include three classes which are among the most quiet and capable diesel submarines at sea today.

• 1 New YUAN SSK (a surprise to us until in the water).
• 13 SONGs SSKs (avg 2 per/year)
• 9 Russia KILO SSKs (3 more on order)

These classes are bolstered by 9 semi-modern MINGs (90s vintage) as well as a combination of 23 older MINGs and Romeos At this pace, China will have 75 modern submarines by 2020.

Note the comment regarding the Yuan, it is very telling. I've seen a number of photo's of those older MINGs and Romeos, and while things may have been different in March of 2006, I think the military value (or operational probability) of those submarines is very close to nil in 2008.

The point is we don't have accurate numbers of conventional submarines produced by China, and there is a serious problem with that being a hidden number. The lack of transparency in China means several things, among them if the DoD doesn't have an accurate count of conventional submarines being built, then how do we know if China exports submarines to another nation that lacks transparency? While Iran may parade their military hardware in front of the camera's, not every nation follows that silly example.

For example, the Song class submarine has often been discussed as an excellent platform for minelaying. Does anyone else think it might be very important information if China sold some Song class submarines to North Korea? What if North Korea then sells them to someone else? While a lot of old cold warriors still hold a high degree of skepticism towards Russia, it is noteworthy that Russia has a great deal of transparency in their military expenditures, about the same level as the west.

We note that it is largely because of transparency we know about Russian conventional submarine exports. The data used by Richard Dorn of AMI International to track conventional submarine sales worldwide isn't secret, all you have to do is be follow Russian, French, and German exports... and hope China isn't selling in that market, yet.

We look forward to future articles in this series, and observe the next article in the series is named "Chinese neo-wolf pack tactics against U.S. carrier groups." Hmm, sounds interesting and a bit familiar. We look forward to seeing his citations regarding his research, which we might suggest can be found here and here.