7th Fleet Focus: Ghost of Macarthur Lands in Myanmar

An important development occurred this morning with the arrival of an Air Force C-130 transport fully loaded with humanitarian assistance from USAID, the flight included a VIP passenger. Admiral Timothy Keating, Chief of US Pacific Command, traveled with the humanitarian aid to speak personally to the leadership in Myanmar. We immediately observe this unofficial visit is perhaps a turning point in the diplomatic effort to increase humanitarian support for the Burmese people suffering from the Cyclone which devastated the region on May 2nd and 3rd. Admiral Keating would be the highest ranking US military officer to visit Myanmar in many decades.

"It was a cordial meeting and we exchanged ideas on how we might assist in the relief effort. They showed us maps of where they had the greatest need," she told a press conference.

"Water, food, mosquito nets, shelter materials and blankets were all highlighted as extremely important."

Fore said Keating briefed the Myanmar officials, including the deputy ministers from the foreign affairs and social welfare ministries, on the US capability to help in the aftermath of the cyclone.

He told them the United States was "ready to assist in these efforts", she said.

We have previously covered the elevated importance of regional military commanders in diplomatic efforts since the end of the cold wars, particularly in reaching out to the 3rd world nations best described as unfriendly to the United States. This is an enormous development, one that sends clear messages to the junta regarding the seriousness the United States takes the crisis developing in Myanmar. The chain of command begins at the President, but from there it would go to Secretary Gates then Admiral Keating. To put this event into perspective, this would be like General Petraeus going to Tehran to offer US humanitarian assistance once he is CENTCOM commander following a humanitarian crisis in Iran.

The US is preparing regionally to respond, and there are a couple of developments worth keeping an eye on. First, after this first flight the US will make two more flights on Tuesday. Henrietta Fore, an administrator with the US Agency for International Development (USAID), suggests the United States intends to take it one day at a time. It is worth noting that one day at a time is very interesting, because in two days events begin to transition quickly, and the US is slowly preparing itself for all contingencies.

More than 11,000 troops are in Thailand for the annual Cobra Gold exercises along with four naval ships led by the USS Essex, which is like a mini aircraft carrier with helicopters on board and the capability to launch amphibious landings in hard-to-reach places.

More ships — including two aircraft carrier battle groups — could reach the area quickly but are for the time being hovering back in international waters. Their inclusion would vastly improve the logistics of any relief effort.

Officials have said that no aid will be flown in without the Myanmar government's permission, however.

The last sentence is key. It is unknown what Admiral Keating said to the junta, and while Admiral Keating is an excellent diplomat in his own right, he also has a reputation for being blunt and honest often offending the Chinese with that brutal honesty. While no one, including us, expects the United States will take any kind of military action regardless of how events unfold, we keep in mind that predicting how events unfold is dangerous to predicting what could happen. While all indications are the crisis response could be turning favorably toward the advantage of peaceful aid delivery, we are also observing the military options unfolding.

On Wednesday the Essex ESG will arrive off Myanmar, but there is no indication they will be allowed to offer assistance. By this weekend, the world will have a better sense regarding the level of crisis fallout in Myanmar, but that also marks the arrival of very bad weather. If a massive humanitarian crisis continues to get worse, and the news reporting right now continues to highlight that as very much possible, it will be very interesting to see how public perception develops. Depending upon how fast the death toll rises, it may be that in 2 weeks, when the Peleliu arrives off the coast of Myanmar with the Hospital Ship Mercy, public opinion could be very different than it is now regarding the crisis, and a military response may be something the entire international community calls for. With Cobra Gold completed by then, we observe the US Navy could have 2 Carrier Strike Groups and 2 Expeditionary Strike Groups, with at least 13,000 Marines ready to take action in Myanmar.

We still suggest the military option is incredibly unlikely, but we very much like what has unfolded here, and suggest it is the first major diplomatic effort likely to produce results. We observe it is very possible the US Military Diplomat, in the form of Admiral Keating going to Myanmar, backed by the command authority of incredible US military power, may be able to achieve what all the diplomats in the international bodies have been unable to do up until this point... get results with diplomacy.

We have often described the proactive humanitarian stance of the Navy's maritime strategy to be likened to taking the offensive in peacetime. We observe Keating's visit is very much akin to leading a battle from the front lines in that regard. We observe great potential here to deescalate a potential crisis, but it takes leadership to go establish the rule sets, which in this case may have included some kind of suggestion regarding the strategic options unfolding over the next two weeks should the junta ignore their humanitarian responsibilities.

Reminds us of how Admiral Fallon dealt with China when he led PACOM. Perhaps the ghost of Macarthur still haunts in Southeast Asia.