Al Qaeda Calls For Naval Terror Cells

Eagle1 highlights this report and offers some excellent analysis regarding a topic that may reshape the calculus in the Persian Gulf. The day after the incident in the Gulf involving shots fired from the SS Westward Venture at small boats reported to be the color blue in the Persian Gulf, MEMRI noted some internet traffic we believe is very critical to the information stream of events taking place.

On April 26, 2008, the Islamist website Al-Ikhlas posted an article from Jihad Press, an e-journal reportedly linked to Al-Qaeda, which urges the mujahideen to establish naval terror cells. The article argues that gaining control over the seas and sea passages - especially around the Arabian Peninsula - is a vital step towards renewing the global Islamic caliphate.

It points out that such operations are feasible, because Yemeni groups have already carried out successful attacks against oil tankers, tourist vessels, and commercial vessels in the Gulf of Aden; and other jihad fighters have carried out "two successful attacks on Zionist-Crusader targets in the [territorial] waters of Yemen: ...the attack on the American destroyer [USS] Cole in October 2000, and the [attack on the] French oil tanker Limburg in 2002."

The article adds: "As we draw near to the [crucial] hour when the leadership of the Zionist-Crusader campaign will be dragged to the [negotiation] table to accept the [mujahideen's] terms... it is necessary to [extend] the battle to the seas. The mujahideen have successfully established units of martyrdom-seekers on land; the sea is the next strategic step towards controlling the world and restoring the Islamic caliphate."

Finally, the article stresses that the seas off the coast of Yemen, namely the Gulf of Aden, the Bab Al-Mandeb strait and the Red Sea are of supreme strategic importance in the campaign to expel the enemy from key locations. If the enemy loses these key areas, it explains, "he will not be able to defend himself on land and [to protect] his naval bases from the mujahideens' attack."

We observe a memo like this can change the calculus for Naval forces operating in the 5th Fleet, and should be a serious concern to all nations in the region. Lets assume that the mujahideen has heard of blue paint, a safe assumption, and decides to buy the very common fast speed boats used by both the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Pasdaran forces and pirates in Somalia.

What happens when they approach in formation a small task force of US surface ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz? When we observed the incident in January involving the three US Naval vessels and the Iranian small boats, we gave credit to the intelligence and training for being prepared for tense situations but keeping their cool when faced what appears to be threatening behavior. We note that the intelligence of that time made it almost a certainty those craft are Iranian and will not conduct a suicide attack. Now that Al Qaeda is establishing what are almost certainly small suicide boat forces, what do you think intelligence and training is going to tell these sailors to do next time? Unfortunately, the only legitimate answer is blow them to hell.

This should be a real concern for Iran, because if they do not want war they would immediately inform their IRGC naval forces that unprofessional behavior like what occurred in January could be the trigger for escalating conflict. If President Bush doesn't send a warning to Iran in this regard over the next few days, Harry Reid or one of the Presidential Candidates would be an absolute fool not to, because unless you truly believe Al Qaeda has never heard of blue paint, this is exactly the kind of situation the asymmetrical style that Al Qaeda is known to capitalize on. If Iran and Al Qaeda elements are truly enemies as claimed by many, then clearly they see high tensions and military exchange between Iran and the US to their advantage. An Al Qaeda suicide boat painted blue striking at a major US Naval vessel in the region appears to be an obvious tactic by Al Qaeda waiting to happen. Iran should be put on notice regarding the risks of unprofessional behavior at sea, as should all mariners.

Another major problem with this development occurs if Al Qaeda begins to conduct operations against unarmed commercial traffic, specifically large tankers very common in those seas. We have highlighted how the US Navy has shrunk due to its focus on an all battleship Navy many times, and how the US Navy simply lacks enough forces to maintain an effective patrol against piracy. The lack of ships becomes even more evident if free trade by sea becomes threatened by terrorists with any consistency.

While terrorist attacks against commercial shipping is a threat to the US, we observe the large majority of shipping from that region has destination ports in Europe and Asia. It occurs to us that if Al Qaeda begins any kind of effective offensive maritime campaign against commercial traffic in that region, while the whole world will feel the economic effects due to rising insurance premiums, Al Qaeda is essentially making a declaration of war against Europe, and potentially China.

While we observe this has potential to be a very bad development in the long war against extremist groups, this is also a very good opportunity to build a larger maritime coalition to fight terrorism. It strike us that the Navy's new Maritime Strategy was well designed with exactly this purpose in mind, however, the resources of the US Navy are so out of balance that we may find our naval forces very poorly resourced to handle these kinds of maritime challenges. In our opinion, the Admirals need to get their maritime sea basing strategy resourced quickly with some smaller vessels ready to distribute and offer sustained forward presence against irregular threats. It has been 8 years since the Cole incident, long enough to be ready.