The Navy, Oil Prices, and Iran

We got about 15,000 new visitors last week when we observed the Navy's Fleet Response Plan assembling aircraft carrier forces at an unusually high availability leading into the summer. Our observations were made prior to the deployment of the Reagan Carrier Strike Group on Monday. A large number of those hits came within the context of whoever posted the link, which resulted in our relaxed commentary of the topic to set expectations for the reader to 'fill in the details' within any context. We observe one such new reader apparently works for Fox Business channel, and decided to pump up the price of oil with a discussion of Iran and the US Navy.

The facts as spoken are not inaccurate, but the context is. The US Navy does currently have 6 aircraft carriers on deployment, and while that number will reduce to 5 with the return of the Truman, it may very well go back up to 6 again this summer.

As for a strike against Iran? Not likely. Only the Abraham Lincoln CSG will be in the Middle East region over the next several months, and we do not expect to see a second carrier in the region until the Theodore Roosevelt CSG deploys this summer. We observe half of the carriers currently counted among the 6 deployed intend to replace the other half of carriers also counted among the 6 deployed. The USS George Washington (CVN 73) is replacing the USS Kitty Hawk (CV 63) in Japan, while the recently deployed USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) is replacing the USS Nimitz (CVN 68). The fifth and sixth carrier currently deployed is the USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75), which was last spotted near Greece on what is basically the return home after spending 5 months in the Gulf after being relieved from station by the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72).

Is Fox Business Channel telling us something new? If so, we don't see it. We do not expect to see the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN 69) or USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) to deploy this summer, as carriers in surge status they would only deploy due to emerging contingencies. We could be missing something though, wouldn't be the first time. We note this video as yet another media report that observes the high availability of aircraft carrier forces this year and links it to the strange events taking place with oil prices. Consider the reporting, even the video discussions note the reduced demand worldwide, the stockpiling for oil in the Middle East which many have been discussing, which together mean increased supply with less demand while price speculators continue to pump the price up.

Two final thoughts, what language has become a primary focus of study in the DoD right now? Answer: Farsi. What do almost all reservists drills for the Navy and Air Force resemble? Answer: A war with Iran.

Food for thought.