Russian Roulette With Indian Aircraft Carriers

If you believe the issue of the Admiral Gorshkov has been settled, think again. Despite the rumors, the negotiations with Russia have not been successful to date, and both countries are still further apart on the final price than not. There are strong pressures still pushing this deal towards a sour conclusion, namely the Russians and Indians themselves.

For reasons unstated, Russian Navy Commander Vladimir Vysotskii continues to preach a desire for aircraft carriers for Russia. He has become a broken record on the subject, insistent that the Russians will begin building 6 new aircraft carriers beginning in 2012. The irony is, this type of rhetoric is beginning to annoy military observers in Russia, who do not believe this is a project capable of being accomplished. The problem isn't money, Russia is rolling in oil income and the shipbuilding industry, despite a bit of inflation, is in a healthy position although modernization is looming as a necessity. We still observe a few reminders that rather than building a new carrier in 2012, Russia should upgrade its shipyards in that time frame, and field the Admiral Gorshkov as a second aircraft carrier instead.

India is clearly following this rhetoric, because rather than paying for work to begin again on the Admiral Gorshkov, India has asked Russia to pay the shipyard to get the project back on track.

India has asked Russia to make an advance payment of $250 million to the Sevmash shipyard in Arctic Russia for refurbishing the aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov, which will be adjusted later when final settlement is done between the two countries. “We have asked Russia to make an advance payment to the cash-crunched Sevmash shipyard, where Admiral Gorshkov is docked for refitting. The amount will be adjusted in the final amount (to be paid to Russia),” Defence Secretary Vijay Singh told IANS.

This is a very smart move by India, because the negotiations set to begin on May 26th are far from certain. By having Russia pay for getting the project back on track, the lack of a deal doesn't hurt India, and Russia can't afford to hold a grudge over a failed deal with India now that China has dried up as a major purchasing customer of defense equipment. India has been screwed over by the Russians in this deal, not only will the delivery be far too late to work within their intended schedule, but they are investing an enormous amount of money in a platform that doesn't have a good track record. India is getting what they paid for though, although even that comes with a twist.

The first four ship-borne Russian-made MiG 29 K/KUB fighter jets, purchased by India for the aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov, will be delivered to the Indian Navy in September, a navy official said Tuesday. “The first four of the 16 MiG 29 K/KUB will arrive in the country in September and the pilot training has been completed for these aircraft,” the official said.

India is getting 12 MiG 29K single-seater aircraft and four MiG 29KUB double-seater trainer aircraft as part of the $740 million contract signed in January 2004 for Admiral Gorshkov. However, like we said, there is a twist... those pilots who have completed training, they weren't trained in Russia or India, rather they were trained in the United States.

While training in the United States, one might imagine those Indian naval aviators had the opportunity to see up close and personal the Super Hornet, and they were probably impressed. Whether it was them, or someone in India, someone is very impressed with the Super Hornet, because the question is being asked that gets our attention: Can you fly a Super Hornet off a Russian aircraft carrier?

It Is now sufficiently clear that the Indian Navy wants to be able to use the air force’s assets of war. In a revelation so far kept under wraps, the Navy has asked Boeing a contender for India's $10-billion tender for 126 air force fighters if the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet can operate off the INS Vikramaditya, the rechristened Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov currently being refurbished in Russia for the Indian Navy. None of the fighters in the IAF’s existing fleet have the capability to operate from the deck of an aircraft carrier.

What do you think Boeing said? What do you think... Of coarse you can, at least according to Boeing. There is a catch though, the F/A-18E/F is a catapult launched aircraft, while the MiG-29K doesn't require a catapult, it uses a ski jump. Apparently, Boeing has models that say that doesn't matter.

The significance of Boeing’s finding lies in the fact that the Super Hornet - which by default is launched using a steam-powered catapult on American super-carriers - has never before been known to be able to take off from an angled ski-jump - the launch mechanism on India’s sole aircraft carrier INS Virat, as well as the Gorshkov and the under-construction indigenous aircraft carrier.

Rietz told reporters at Lemoore, which holds half of the US Navy’s striking power in the Pacific, “In our simulation, we discovered that not only could the Super Hornet take-off from a ski-jump, but could do so with a significant weapons load.” Landing the Super Hornet on the Gorshkov would pose no problem since the warship comes equipped with an arrester cable.

The Indians love Boeing, they can't wait to get the P-8I maritime surveillance aircraft, hell the US Navy can't wait to get it either.

Consider how aircraft carrier issues are coming together leading into the 2012 time frame. The US Navy needs a replacement for the USS Enterprise (CVN 63) for 2012-2015, but Congress has said they don't want to pay the money to extend the nuclear carriers life after 2012. Instead Congress has instructed the Navy to study the possibility of maintaining the Kitty Hawk and John F Kennedy to insure carrier availability. India needs an aircraft carrier replacement as soon as it can get one, preferably by 2010, but that appears to be impossible right now. The French both want and recognize the need for a new aircraft carrier, but indications are they will not build one. The MoD mixes green lights with red lights almost daily with the CVF project, claiming today the CVF will go forward, but not yet because first design maturity needs to be studies more closely. We already discussed the Russians, who themselves are looking at 2012 as the magic year. Don't get me started on China, who could potentially be building an aircraft carrier today and no one would know it for years.

What a strange time for the aircraft carrier. Are there any solutions somewhere in this mess? Difficult to tell, but if I was putting together the Congressional study regarding the Kitty Hawk and John F Kennedy, I'd find out how far $1.2 billion goes in each platform, and if that money goes as far as I think, I would 'accidentally' leak the results to the media to insure Indians are aware.

After all, the choice for India is striking, they can either invest heavily in an aircraft carrier built by a nation that has only been able to deploy their own aircraft carrier once in the last decade, or spend the same amount to refurbish an American aircraft carrier of which the design can be studied to advance the indigenous aircraft carrier shipbuilding capacity India is developing. With the big American defense contractors setting up shop in India, seems to me both the strategic and economic advantages of the American option favors Indian interest.

However, choosing the US over Russia for an aircraft carrier will conflict with the always interesting politics in India. India should be able to leverage the US advances in the Indian defense industry to get a favorable price from Russia regarding the Admiral Gorshkov, although with so much turmoil surrounding the aircraft carrier industry specifically, it is hard to tell if Russia will move on the price.