The Slow Burn in Burma

The UN finally read their own homework, and has raised estimates across the board regarding the unfolding tragedy in Myanmar. We pulled statistics sourced to the United Nations from 2005 earlier this week when when we attempted to highlight the region hit by the storm appears to have impacted around 4 million people. We based that assessment on storm track, satellite imagery, and data population data sourced to the UN and the CIA.

It appears our calculations were off, not as many have been flooded out as we assumed, but it also appears the media is catching up to the level of catastrophe.

The United Nations said on Wednesday up to 2.5 million people might have been affected by the Myanmar cyclone and proposed a high-level donors conference as the Myanmar junta again limited foreign aid.

U.N. humanitarian affairs chief John Holmes told reporters between 1.6 and 2.5 million people were "severely affected" by Cyclone Nargis and urgently needed aid, up from a previous estimate of at least 1.5 million.

Myanmar state television raised its official toll to 38,491 dead, 1,403 injured and 27,838 missing.

The International Federation of the Red Cross estimated on the basis of reports from 22 organizations working in Myanmar that between 68,833 and 127,990 people had died.

As we count down to the monsoon season, it is only going to get worse and worse, and before monsoon season arrives the weather will not cooperate. It rained all day today, and will again tomorrow... and thats the good news.

Amid signs that a second cyclone may be headed toward the Irrawaddy Delta, the directors of several relief organizations in Myanmar said Wednesday that some of the international aid coming into the country for the victims of Cyclone Nargis was being stolen, diverted or warehoused by the military.

The aid directors declined to be quoted directly on their concerns for fear of angering the ruling junta and jeopardizing their operations, although Marcel Wagner, country director of the Adventist Development and Relief Agency, confirmed that aid was being diverted by the army.

He also said it was going to be a growing problem, though he declined to give any further details because of the sensitivity of the situation.

Everyday this week there has been a new editorial written by a western writer to invade Myanmar. This isn't helpful, it only contributes to the xenophobia of the junta who sees large ships from the US and France off their southern shore. While the intentions are humanitarian, all the junta sees is invasion by western powers.

In the meantime, the storms continue to come, the aid trickles in while the shenanigans with the aid continues. The cries get louder, the body count continues to increase, the news will only go from bad to worse, and the calls for action will only get louder. Expect the next week to be a steady drumbeat of bad news as emotion takes hold while the situation goes from bad to worse.

Cobra Gold ends on May 22nd, next Thursday, nothing is going to happen before then. In the meantime, we observe an international naval force slowly increasing at sea off Myanmar. Among the few ships to make port in Myanmar, India's INS Rana (D52) delivered humanitarian supplies earlier this week. The captain was quoted saying the region is in "total devastation." It will be interesting to see where the situation sits when Cobra Gold completes, because there will be some 15.000 US and French Marines in that theater potentially supported by a rather large international naval armada. The estimated number of deaths to the violence in Dufar is 375,000 total due to violence to date. We note the Red Cross believes 1/3 that many may already be dead in Myanmar, and things are about to get much worse.