The Strategic Hammer Hits Hezbollah

It has been announced by all sides that today is the first day of the civil war in Lebanon. This has been building with the steady assassination of political leaders since the conclusion of the war in 2006. Hezbollah is not happy, and all of a sudden the government of Lebanon has access to some very accurate intelligence.

It started with a tip regarding airport security and the means by which Iran was reportedly flying in military supplies to Hezbollah. It didn't go over well with the militia when the government announced they were going to seize control of a security camera system in the Beruit airport. That was followed by the removal of the head of airport security, a member of Hezbollah.

It wasn't until the Lebanese government moved to take down private, secure communications network of Hezbollah that the civil unrest, what some are calling a civil war, began. The New York Times is covering.

On Tuesday, the government said that it would send troops to shut down a telephone network operated by Hezbollah in south Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut.

“This decision was a declaration of war and the start of war on the resistance and its weapons,” Mr. Nasrallah said, speaking via satellite at a news conference convened by Hezbollah in the southern suburbs of Beirut.

“Our response to this decision is that whoever declares or starts a war, be it a brother or a father, then it is our right to defend ourselves and our existence,” he said.

How did the Lebanese government so accurately map out all the secure communication locations? The Lebanese military has almost no presence in the south regions dominated by Hezbollah, they are usually assigned to other duty or kept in bases. Was it the Europeans, Israel, or the US?

We'd guess all three, and Hezbollah is already blaming the United States as well. Note the events. First, the airport incident has some sketchy details, but it has been noted many times by observers the regular flights to Beirut from Iran. With the European naval forces part of UNIFIL conducting boardings at sea, smuggling of heavy weaponry into Lebanon is very difficult, particularly from Syria where the fast forces of UNIFIL operate and wait for ships from Syria to so they can conduct a search when they approach Lebanon.

With lines of communication by sea cut, this has left the airport as the most likely route for moving military supply. Not anymore, that operation appears to have been shut down.

Now the government is going after the communication network, and Hezbollah is treating that as a red line. I don't claim to be an expert, but the tactical pattern here does appear to jump out as obvious. Hezbollah is getting hit hard with a nasty one - two punch in our opinion, first cut teh supply line then cut off communications.

This will be interesting to watch develop. Are we seeing the beginning of a Grand Strategy to neutralize Hezbollah in the region? It is very unclear, but we are clearly seeing a strategy to reduce Hezbollah's military capabilities by denying them supply and communications, and that strikes us as very well thought out tactically, as if some larger strategy is afoot.