5th Fleet Focus: An Old Mission Expands

It took awhile, but the UN Security Council has organized itself for fighting pirates off the Horn of Africa and coast of Somalia. From the BBC:

The UN Security Council has unanimously voted to allow countries to send warships into Somalia's territorial waters to tackle pirates.

The resolution permits countries that have the agreement of Somalia's interim government to use any means to repress acts of piracy for the next six months.

This is a big step. The Naval coalition in the area has rarely been able to intercept a hijacked ship prior to the ship reaching the 12-mile exclusion zone. This has been both a blessing and a burden to the fight against piracy. The blessing has been the international naval forces haven't had to make difficult decisions under hostage situations. The burden has been that in some cases, they couldn't engage targets of opportunity in the zone, a problem that is eliminated with the new UN measure.

There will be several dynamics of this story worth keeping an eye on.

First, what will the structure be? The Canadians assumed Command of CTF 150 from the French Navy today. What is the role of CTF-150 now; does it change, evolve, or operate independent of the UN? We don't expect CFT-150 to remain independent. We do not have a good feel for what will evolve here, but we note partners outside of the existing coalition engaged in Operation Enduring Freedom is likely, with Russia suggesting they want a piece of the action.

Second, will this adjust the ROE? Eagle1 has a must read on this topic, not only regarding this weeks activity, but a very important contribution with relevant portions of the UNCLOS. The ROE against pirates is a big part of the discussion here, because this mandate may not mean as much as could be assumed. Today the Canadians barged in on some pirates attempting to hijack a ship. Apparently, the Canadians never fired a shot. Which nation is going to take action against a hijacked ship with several hostages? The conditions as they exist today, and how they will exist until a much larger naval force fills those seas, imply that the naval force will remain reactionary. Due to the reactionary nature of naval forces, they might have the green light to take action, but in most cases the green light will come only after the situation makes it difficult to take action without putting hostages in danger.

Third, how serious are countries about fighting piracy? The reported Canadian passive approach today isn't a good early sign. Somalia is a big country of problems. We operate several ships around Somalia that aren't spending all of their time watching pirates, as there are plenty of threats well beyond what piracy represents coming from the region. For centuries, piracy has always been background noise to serious issues, and in a time of radical extremists who exploit ungoverned areas like Somalia, the threat and even reality of piracy isn't really a primary focus. How serious will the US Navy take the piracy issue? The pattern is really tough talk, but the reality has been a token contribution. Will the Navy organize convoys? Will the Navy establish Sea Bases to fight piracy? Will the European or Asian nations contribute to an international force? We suspect there will be some tough talk, but in the end unless there is a national interest, for example Russia who has a need to get operational experience for its Navy, we won't be surprised if all this tough talk results in token action.

Finally, keep an eye on India and China. This is exactly the scenario the Naval leadership of India has discussed as the reason for a powerful naval force. India has long expressed desire to lead as a regional power, to work within international cooperation frameworks in events that take place in the Indian Ocean. This is one of those moments that could signal their emergence. India will either seize the opportunity to be the glue to international forces operating under a UN mandate and step up, or they will be small player in this activity, reminding us they are still not where they want to be. If India choses to go small, don't be surprised if China seizes on that moment.

There will be a number of national strategies in play here, because while the discussion may be Somalia, the reality is presence is required to build connectivity. We would be fools not to acknowledge this view from the perspective of the potential players, building better connectivity with African nations could be seen as a prize here by many.

This is one vision of a Cooperative Strategy for 21st Seapower. I'll be interested to see how it works, and if it works.