Is the PLAN to go Big or Stay Small?

The Economist is observing a massive naval buildup in Asia. While the article does a good job of covering activities beyond China, we found these particular comments regarding China interesting.

Today a resurgent, confident and globalising China is rebuilding its naval strength. Like India, its rising Asian rival, it already has an impressive army. But both countries are finding that rapid economic growth is providing the money to realise long-cherished dreams of building ocean-going “blue-water” navies that can project power far from their home shores.

In the past two years China's navy has acquired new destroyers, frigates and submarines, some home-built, some (including its most advanced kit) Russian. A recent study by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) concluded that China was also close to beginning the production of aircraft-carriers, which would give it the ability to project airpower over great distances. China has long wanted to create a force capable of thwarting the intervention of America's Pacific fleet in any war over Taiwan. But it is also increasingly keen to protect its supplies of fuel and raw materials from threats such as piracy and terrorism.

If you are interested, here is more on the maritime rivalry between China and India the media has been looking at lately. When we read mainstream analysis regarding the Chinese military buildup, it is interesting some articles predict that China is certain to building aircraft carriers. We aren't so sure.

We have been thinking about this a lot lately, particularly when we do our wargaming sessions and the discussions that pop up as a result. Maybe we are missing some key point here, but as observers of the naval buildup in China, we are more concerned China could produce another hundred or more Type 022s and building 5 SSKs a year than we are about China building aircraft carriers.

Maybe it is the way we see naval warfare in the 21st century, but given the option, I'd rather the US Navy fight several carrier strike groups at sea than 200 heavily armed FACs supported by 100 SSKs in the littoral. Seems to us the US Navy matches up very well against big fleet competitors, but will have more problems against massive numbers of small well armed platforms, particularly the Type 022s which are thought to carry the C-803s.

Which is one reason why we expect China's continued naval buildup will look more like Streetfighter with submarines than anything that resembles the large blue American fleet. The exception of coarse is amphibious ships, which China will eventually build in numbers to meet the island conditions of the Pacific.