The Long View Towards the North Pole

Not everyone looking at the energy situation in the world is sitting on their hands waiting for the world to change. The Northern hemisphere needs to sit up and pay attention, because things like this don't get as much analysis as they should in the dynamic political discussions that look to the future.

Russia must be ready to fight for its national interests in the Arctic region, home to vast untouched natural resources, a military official said Tuesday.

"After several countries contested Russia's rights for the resource-rich continental shelf in the Arctic, we have immediately started the revision of our combat training programs for military units that may be deployed in the Arctic in case of a potential conflict," Lt. Gen. Vladimir Shamanov, head the Defense Ministry's combat training board, told the Krasnaya Zvezda, or Red Star, newspaper.

The most common argument is also the most ridiculous one: that the legal frameworks in the UN will protect interests. The UN has dozens of legal frameworks set up to protect African's from warlords, and yet at the end of the day, the guy with the gun has the final say.

Who thinks Russia isn't taking the energy situation seriously? They are a net energy producer, and while they have serious infrastructure issues they also have enormous reserves, and are looking to choke out competitors. If you watch the energy business wires, Gazprom is essentially investing in partnership worldwide, which means Russia is expanding its stake in global energy reserves and production. This appears to be a strategy of global energy presence for Russia. No wonder they talk about a global Navy.

What really troubles us though about Russia's movements towards the Arctic region is that all of our allies with claims in the Arctic regions are downsizing their capabilities to influence that region, much less defend it if necessary. We have covered in detail the retreat from the oceans by the Royal Navy, but more troubling from our perspective is the seemingly uncaring view from Canadians.

Canada is surrounded by three oceans, and yet the lack of investment or even interest by the Liberal Party of Canada in naval power demonstrates a remarkable absence of strategic thinking. How does a political party worried about climate change and melting Arctic ice ignore the Navy and claim strategic vision? While modernization is nice, we keep wondering what the naval forces of Canada and Great Britain will look like in 20 years, and what the naval forces of Russia will look like in comparison. It is noteworthy Russia is investing 25% of its military budget to shipbuilding, while both Canada and Great Britain are having problems funding, much less talking about fielding a replacement fleet for aging warships.

For perspective, at one time it was considered 'rubbish' that the MoD would cut the number of Type 45s from 8 to 6, and look where we are. Makes one wonder what will happen with the Astute class in the future.

The Arctic region represents yet another theater in the 21st century unfolding for the shrinking US Navy to deal with, and it leaves us with two questions.

How effective is the Virginia class under the ice?

Is it time to think about putting Harpoon's on Coast Guard cutters that patrol the arctic region?

Those aren't rhetorical questions, because when it is said and done, the Virginia class and the Coast Guard are probably going to be left to deal that region, and both questions may decide the degree of naval capability the US can project to the Arctic in 20 years without significantly downsizing commitments to other regions.